There’s an argument to be made that nobody has underachieved more than the teams playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. The defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams have won just three of 12 games this year, posting one of the worst records in the NFL. Similarly, the Las Vegas Raiders were expected to compete in the ultra-competitive AFC West, but a 2-7 start to the campaign all but sunk any hope that they could hang with the best teams in the conference. Still, the Raiders are clinging to their faint playoff hopes, winning three straight and making up ground in the Wild Card standings.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Raiders vs. Rams Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Davante Adams Over 88.5 Receiving Yards
Opponents are having a lot of success throwing against the Rams’ secondary, and that should mean big things from Derek Carr and Davante Adams. No wide receiver has been targeted more than Adams this season, and the two-time All-Pro has been exceptional over his recent schedule. We expect that to continue in Week 14 and Adams to make it over his 88.5 receiving yard prop.
Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels quickly realized the Raiders’ best chance at victory comes from getting Adams the ball frequently. The wideout has been targeted at least 11 times in five straight games, surpassing 125 receiving yards in four of those contests. Adams’ metrics have been some of the best in the league over that stretch, averaging 13.4 targets, 8.2 receptions, and 132.8 yards.
Those averages could increase after Thursday night’s contest against Los Angeles. The Rams have been ineffective all season, but even more so over their past few games. LA gives up an average of 236.3 passing yards per game this year, falling to 301.0 since Week 11.
Adams has been a constant for the Raiders this season, and that’s clearly illustrated in his stats over the last five weeks. He’s in an ideal matchup against the Rams’ pass defense, which has had a very liberal open-door policy this year. The Carr-Adams connection should thrive in prime time.
Mack Hollins Under 45.5 Receiving Yards
Not all wide receivers are created equal. The emergence of Adams has meant that secondary pass catchers, like Mack Hollins, have seen fewer looks in the Raiders’ passing attack. The results validate that usage, with Las Vegas winning three straight games and clawing their way back into the postseason conversation. That also means that Hollins’ limited production will likely continue as the team prioritizes getting Adams the football.
Hollins’ receiving yard prop is set at 45.5, a threshold he has crossed just three times since Week 4. Although he’s got the second-best target share on the team, Hollins has struggled to haul in the pigskin. Over the last eight games, Carr has thrown to Hollins 53 times, with the former fourth-round pick catching just 31 of those passes for a disappointing 58.5% catch rate.
Moreover, Hollins has labored deep downfield, catching just three of 14 targets of 20 or more yards, a 21.4% catch rate. The Raiders prefer to deploy him on short yardage routes, with 58.0% of his targets coming within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. That makes it more challenging for Hollins to eclipse his receiving yard prop.
There is some overlap in the first two props, although the plays are not strongly correlated. The more frequently the Raiders get Adams the ball, the less likely Hollins will surpass his yardage expectations. According to The ScoreAndOdds projections, Hollins likely falls beneath his total against the Rams.
Kyren Williams Under 24.5 Rushing Yards
You would be forgiven for not having your finger on the pulse of Kyren Williams‘ rushing props. The rookie running back has played just five games this season after suffering a high ankle sprain on the opening kickoff in Week 1.
Triumphantly, Williams has returned to the gridiron this year, but he hasn’t seen a consistent workload playing behind Cam Akers. We’re not expecting more robust usage against the Raiders, meaning he could fall below his modest rushing yards prop.
Williams has seen limited playing time behind Akers, playing more than 55.0% of the snaps just once since Week 9. Consequently, he’s had just a handful of carries, toting the ball seven or fewer times in three of four and accumulating just 89 rushing yards across those appearances.
The Raiders have emphasized their rushing defense over their current schedule, limiting opponents to an average of 77.0 rushing yards over their previous three games. Better running backs than Williams have fallen by the wayside, with Austin Ekeler limited to 35 rushing yards last week and Kenneth Walker III held to 26 the week before that.
According to the projections, the under on Williams’ rushing prop is the most likely prop to hit in tonight’s contest, with a greater than 90% chance he falls below 24.5 rushing yards. As such, we’re including it as the last leg of our three-wager parlay.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
As usual, there’s a substantive edge in playing this wager as a SameGame parlay on Thursday night. The ScoreAndOdds algorithm suggests that the fair market price is +203, with FanDuel Sportsbook hanging a meatier +532. That leaves bettors with a 17.2% advantage that isn’t worth passing up.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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