Here’s a breakdown of the Thursday Night Football one-game DFS slate featuring the Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers that kicks at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network and FOX.
Oakland Raiders
Good Matchups & Values
- Safety Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) and linebacker Reuben Foster (hamstring) normally make San Francisco a tough matchup for opposing tight ends, but neither will play on Thursday, increasing the likelihood of another smash spot for Jared Cook.
- Jordy Nelson’s 13% target share hasn’t risen without Amari Cooper on the field for the better part of the past two games, but Nelson’s matchup sets up better than it does for Brandon LaFell — otherwise known as the other member of the league’s most washed duo of starting wideouts. San Francisco’s defense is 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on passes to the left, where Nelson lined up 66% of the time last week, but 15th to the right, where LaFell lined up 66% of the time last week. This is due to the presence of Richard Sherman, who has been targeted once every 14.2 snaps in coverage and allowed no touchdowns, according to Pro Football Focus, while Ahkello Witherspoon has been targeted every 5.6 snaps and allowed five scores.
- Seth Roberts operated as the clear No. 3 wide receiver last week, playing 60% of the snaps to Martavis Bryant’s 14% and Dwayne Harris‘ 2%. That makes Roberts the better bet by default, but Bryant’s usage has been unpredictable enough — he played a season-high 72% of the snaps in Week 6 and was tied for the team lead in air-yard share from Weeks 2-6 (25%) — that he should be considered for large-field guaranteed prize pools.
San Francisco 49ers
Good Matchups & Values
- With C.J. Beathard (wrist) not starting and Matt Breida (ankle) at less than 100%, and with the pecking order behind Breida at running back and Marquise Goodwin at wide receiver being anyone’s guess (Pierre Garcon is also battling a hamstring injury), George Kittle is the most confident play on the 49ers. Oakland features nothing but coverage liabilities at linebacker and safety and ranks dead last in DVOA on passes to tight ends.
- After seeing Oakland get pasted for 224 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries by Colts running backs last week, and with Beathard unable to start, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kyle Shanahan employed a run-heavy game plan. Health permitting, this is also a smash spot for Breida, who has handled 16 and 14 carries in his last two healthy games.
- Raheem Mostert (ankle) and Alfred Morris have split snaps behind Breida nearly evenly over the past two weeks and are in play as dart-throw tournament options due to the possibility that Breida isn’t given his normal workload or is forced into an early exit, as has been the case twice in the past four games. Mostert has generally operated as the No. 2 back, but with him also banged up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morris leaned on heavily in this game. Kyle Juszczyk continues to lead the backfield in snaps, but is nothing more than a DraftKings-only punt option, as his season-high in carries is two.
- Kendrick Bourne played 82% of the snaps and drew a season-high 10 targets last week with Garcon out. Much of that was because of matchup as San Francisco relentlessly targeted Jamar Taylor opposite Patrick Peterson, but Bourne played twice as many snaps as Trent Taylor (29%) and Dante Pettis (11%) combined and could continue to operate as the No. 3 receiver. Especially at the minimum on FanDuel, he deserves GPP consideration.
Roster Construction Notes
- According to our NFL Correlations Dashboard, the fantasy points of the Oakland RB1 and RB2 have a relatively strong negative correlation this season (-.54). Doug Martin and Jalen Richard could certainly both end up among the highest scorers on a one-game slate, but it’s something to keep in mind for tournament leverage.
- The fantasy points of the Oakland RB1 and D/ST have a weak but positive correlation (.16) this season, but it strengthens when you look at Plus/Minus (.46).
- The correlation of the fantasy points of the San Francisco QB and the opposing QB is about as strong as you can get: .84.
Cash Game Strategy
The best move in cash games on one-game slates is usually to secure exposure to as much of the scoring as possible via both teams’ quarterbacks and running backs, but that goes out the window with the uncertainty surrounding the 49ers offense. Gaining exposure to as much of Oakland’s scoring as possible is the best bet.
On DraftKings, Martin is the top value for the Captain slot among players above the salary midpoint, and he makes sense there because he projects for the most touches in this game. Pairing him with Derek Carr, Daniel Carlson, Cook, Nelson and Kittle gives you access to any potential Raiders offensive scores except touchdowns from Oakland’s backup running backs, which are unlikely since neither Richard nor Washington has a carry inside the 10-yard line this season, and fullback Keith Smith has one carry all season. You also get Oakland’s top two projected pass-catchers and the San Francisco player least likely to be affected by quarterback issues, as Kittle’s average target depth is only 6.8 and he is second in the NFL in yards after catch (405).
On FanDuel, Carr makes more sense in the MVP slot than Martin since Carr is the slate’s highest projected player and you don’t have to pay extra to get him in there. After locking in Martin and Carlson, the highest-floor combo to complete the lineup is Breida-Richard. If Breida is ruled out, I’d lean toward forgoing Carlson and taking the value that opens up with a Carr-Martin-Cook-Richard-Mostert combination.
UPDATE: With Byron Mullens starting, you could conceivably create more balanced lineups with him paired with Breida, but given that the uncertainty surrounding him — it’s possible he ends up with negative points or gets benched — along with the fact that Oakland offense is easy enough to get near-full exposure to, I’d recommend restricting Mullens to tournaments.
Tournament Strategy
Because of his modest cost and the fact that him scoring rushing touchdowns would negatively impact the value of the entire Oakland passing game, Martin is looking like the top Captain/MVP option in tournaments on both sites. I wouldn’t touch the Raiders D/ST in cash games — it’s bad — but considering the circumstances and correlations at hand, Martin-Oakland D/ST is a strong tournament stack.
On DraftKings, I’d rank the Captains for Oakland after Martin as (1) Cook, (2) Nelson, (3) Richard and (4) Carr based on cost vs. projected ceiling (the full-point PPR format and 1.5x salary premium make it harder for quarterbacks worth rostering to outscore all of their receivers on DraftKings). For the 49ers, I’d rank them Kittle, Breida, Goodwin. I love Goodwin’s matchup, but the shaky quarterback situation puts him in a tough spot because of his 16.3 average depth of target.
Considering how bad Oakland’s defense is (31st in DVOA vs. the pass) and the fact that the 49ers have two players in Kittle and Goodwin liable to take a short pass the distance, I’d definitely consider 49ers passing-game stacks in large fields, regardless of whether Beathard or Nick Mullens ends up being the quarterback.
As far as top dart throws, I like Morris (assuming Breida plays) and Bryant. In GPPs we want to embrace volatility, and in the same way it’s possible for a player to see his role reduced suddenly and without explanation, it’s possible for him to see his role restored just as suddenly and inexplicably.
Let’s get this shmoney!
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured above: Matt Breida, George Kittle
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
