To some extent, every NFL quarterback has a weakness. Tom Brady has historically looked mortal only when under constant pressure, and defenses have always attempted to dare noodle-armed quarterbacks like Alex Smith to beat them deep down the field.
Using our FantasyLabs Trends tool, it’s easy to identify DFS weaknesses for most quarterbacks. Most people are well aware that Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees aren’t their usual dominant selves away from home, but there are plenty of examples across the league of sub-optimal situations that have consistently correlated with poor quarterback play. Let’s take a look at what situations have brought the worst out of the league’s 31 non-rookie starting quarterbacks (#TeamKizer).
Dog Haters
Road Underdog
All figures refer to standard DraftKings scoring:
“PPG Rank” refers to the quarterback’s rank among the league’s 32 starters for the specific trend. Again, these kryptonite data points are all relative, so while Brees has ‘struggled’ as a road underdog, he’s simply struggled by his personal high standards and is still a top-eight quarterback for raw production for the trend.
Joe Flacco has consistently produced next to nothing as a road underdog, perhaps helping explain why the Ravens haven’t won a road game outside of Cleveland or Jacksonville since October of 2015. Eli Manning hasn’t been much better (and carries the highest ownership of the group), although he’s at least mixed in a few big performances. Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, and Brees have maintained top-20 scoring production, but they’ve combined to post a 2.4 percent Upside Rating in their 41 games as road underdogs.
Be sure to monitor our Vegas dashboard to identify prime slates to avoid particularly volatile quarterbacks.
Home Underdogs
Unsurprisingly, former or current Browns quarterbacks were responsible for three of the seven worst PPG averages as home underdogs since 2014. Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton are the most notable names to struggle as home underdogs, with Rivers exceeding his salary-based expectations in just one of his eight games as a home dog since 2014. Cam Newton hasn’t been great either, though his Panthers have been underdogs at home only five times since 2014.
Anti-Frontrunners
Home Favorites
With the exception of Smokin’ Jay Cutler‘s -1.3 Plus/Minus, none of these quarterbacks have been terrible as home favorites, posting marks of at least +1.3. Still, Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins have posted top-10 ownership rates with bottom-11 production when favored at home since 2014. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Being a home favorite doesn’t exactly set up ideal game flow for the quarterback, and straying from a typically pass-heavy attack could be the cause of Winston’s and Cousins’ issues as home favorites. Overall, their Consistency Ratings as home favorites rank among the bottom-eight starting quarterbacks.
Road Favorites
The most popular negative trend in DFS has been quarterbacks laying an egg in a road game they’re expected to win. The most surprising revelation in the above table has to be Brady failing to post a Consistency Rating above 50 percent as a road favorite since 2014. Still, Brady is far from the worst road favorite, as Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford have posted -3.1 and -3.5 Plus/Minus values, respectively.
Although you shouldn’t automatically fade top-tier quarterbacks in juicy road matchups, it’s still shocking to see the limited amount of upside that road favorites have had in general. Out of all 32 starting quarterbacks, only Russell Wilson, Flacco, and Newton have an Upside Rating greater than zero percent.
The Rest
- Sam Bradford and Andrew Luck both play their home games indoors and have weak divisions. Naturally, both have struggled in road games against non-divisional opponents. Again, ‘struggled’ is relative, as Luck’s average of 22.1 DraftKings PPG with a +2.5 Plus/Minus far surpasses Bradford’s average of 13.46 PPG with a -1.9 Plus/Minus.
- Marcus Mariota thrives against non-divisional competition – but only on the road. He’s averaged just 15.62 DraftKings PPG with a 44.4 percent Consistency Rating against non-divisional opponents at home.
- Carson Palmer has the same problem as Mariota, only with divisional opponents. Palmer has averaged just 15.86 DraftKings PPG with a -1.31 Plus/Minus against NFC West opponents at home since 2014.
- Wilson and Dak Prescott have consistently struggled against the 49ers and Giants, respectively. Both quarterbacks have averaged fewer than 16.5 DraftKings PPG with negative Plus/Minus values against their respective division rivals, while surpassing their salary-implied totals just two times in eight games.
- Tom Savage, Jared Goff, and Mike Glennon have combined to start 22 games since 2014. For this reason, their trends are very noisy; picking just one negative trend would consist of a sample with fewer than five games. With that said, these quarterbacks have been brutal in just about every scenario imaginable, combining to average 10.28 PPG with a -3.33 Plus/Minus and 24.0 percent Consistency Rating since 2014.
Certain quarterbacks have fantasy floors that are higher than most other’s ceilings. Still, it’s important to be just as conscious of quarterback’s “weaknesses” as we are with their strengths.
When evaluating DFS quarterbacks, be sure to monitor their opponents in our Matchups page, and track their performance and availability with our industry-leading and DFS-focused News blurbs.
