Like many teams this season, the Utah Jazz have been plagued with injuries. Unlike many however, they were dealt blows to their two biggest stars right out of the gates, seeing Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors miss a combined 37 games. Now back in Utah’s starting-unit together, both have shook off any initial concerns regarding health, morphing a defense that was hemorrhaged for 106.9 points per 100 possessions in December to a stifling tower that suffocate all who oppose them. Fortunately, senior Jazz reporter of Basketball Insiders, Ben Dowsett, found a few minutes in between blocks and rebounds to discuss that (and more).
Utah went through their fair-share of injuries at the beginning of this season — no [Rudy] Gobert, no [Derrick] Favors — but has since seen the recent return of both. Let’s start with Favors: How has he looked?
He’s looked almost back to normal, the one exception being his jumper, which hasn’t really come back to form yet. I think that’s understandable given the amount of time that he missed. Other that that, he looks perfectly good to go and, in fact, defensively looks as good as he has all year. I’m not going to say better, but as good as he has at any point this year. He’s been incredibly springy. He had, I think six blocks in one game and five in the next? And he and Gobert together have been very good. Interestingly enough, they’ve actually both been better defensively without each other since both have returned, but that’s just sample-size and could very well be noise.
It’s funny that you mention that because here at FantasyLabs, we use Opponent Plus/Minus to gauge defenses in our models. And what that is, quick explanation: X defense allows Y points above expectations according to salary at that position. So, in being salary-based, it makes for arguably the most efficient daily fantasy metric on the market. Now, in terms of Gobert, Utah actually has the lowest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers. They’re the best. They limit opponents to -1.7 points below expectations. And at power forward, actually, more of the same: they’re No. 1. But fans know that Gobert is awesome defensively. How have they looked together?
Yeah, they’ve been very good. The whole team has been very good in the seven games since both have returned. The team Defensive Rating in that time is 92.7 which is, you know, incredible. It’s a small sample, though. They’ve allowed 96.7 points per 100 possessions together since they’ve returned which, again, would be among the top-two or three combinations for any team in a full season. As I mentioned earlier, they’ve actually both been better without each other defensively (as far as what the team’s Defensive Rating has been), but I really do think there’s a decent amount of noise to that. Obviously they play together primarily against opposing starters, whereas one plays more with Trevor Booker and the other more with Trey Lyles. Quin Synder does a lot of staggering with those guys in that they’ll see opposing bench and hybrid units. In effect, though, I think the important takeaway for DFS players is that Utah is now arguably the toughest matchup in the league for players who score a lot in the paint. Their interior defense has now likely returned to being the best in the league.
Now that we’re seeing Favors log extensive minutes — for instance, [Utah] put Gobert on a “restriction” only to play him 28-minutes the following night — who in the rotation has really lost out in their front court?
The biggest loser in all of this has been Lyles, who was getting about 21 minutes per game in December and 25 in January. And he was actually doing some really nice things (though I can’t honestly say how frequently he was found to be DFS-viable). But he’s down to 11 minutes per game since those two returned and right now, it’s tough to rely on him for anything. Other than that, Booker’s minutes have come down a bit because he’s no longer used as their second big. Favors’ and Gobert’s injuries lapped each other so much that he was being used as their secondary forward. But he’s no longer that. He’s now firmly their third big — they’ve clearly favored him over Lyles and Jeff Withey. Withey basically hasn’t played at all, but I think we all figured he would be done once Favors came back. I feel like there are going to be times, given that he’s cheap enough, where Booker will be worth the money — he’s going to play consistent minutes, he still hits the glass and gets boards — but I can’t say how consistent all that will remain regarding his production. I do think his minutes will remain consistent.
Just between us: Do you think we’ll ever see [Jeff] Withey again this season? Because that’s a name that everyone rode hard for a while there. I admittedly haven’t watched nearly as much Jazz film as you, but from what I could tell (in his metrics, anyways), defensively and rebounding-wise he did enough to return value each and every night.
There was a period there when he was producing double-doubles! But I don’t see it unless we see another injury to Favors or Gobert. I don’t even think an injury to Booker would give much time to Withey because Lyles would likely take a majority of those minutes. At this point, Snyder is comfortable playing Favors at center for a reasonable number of minutes, which means Withey is pretty much just an insurance piece at the end of their bench.
Dallas’ ball-handlers attempt 14.1 field goals per game off the pick-and-roll. Is that something Utah’s defense tends to struggle against, or have they been fairly good against PnR this season?
Like all elements of their defense now that they’ve got their best players back, they’re very good against the pick-and-roll. You’re choosing from the best of several bad options to target when playing against the Jazz defense, because I think it’s fairly clear that at full strength they’re one of the best five defenses in the league. But I do think the pick-and-roll is one of the better options for an offense, if only because Utah’s point guard situation is pretty iffy defensively (especially when Trey Burke is on the floor), and you can find at least one weak piece to force into a two-man game. But the guys the Jazz usually have defending that from a big-man standpoint — Favors, Gobert, even Lyles has good lateral mobility — it’s like I say: it’s preferable to many other avenues of attack. I mean, you don’t want to go into the post against Gobert, right? And their strategy in defending it, for any interested, is that, excepting the Stephen Curry’s and Damian Lillard’s of the world, they generally play a more conservative style — hanging back, inviting teams to take mid-range jumpers, and keeping them from rotating in order to prevent open threes.
Trey Burke has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. In his absence, as you know, Raul Neto has received extended run. But is that their plan for the short term? Or are we going to see something different while he’s out?
We’ll see a little more Erick Green, who’s on his second 10-day contract, but he’s only averaging around five minutes per game during this stretch. Burke didn’t even travel with the team on their current trip, so it seems highly unlikely that he’ll play Wednesday. Neto should continue seeing time in the mid-30’s, but they have been comfortable playing some lineups that have no point guards — occasionally Chris Johnson and Rodney Hood can both defend point guards. But Neto will get a majority of the run. For the very short time, assuming a move doesn’t happen, he’s the only viable play there.
