The PGA TOUR is back in action this week after the FedExCup Playoffs concluded just two weeks ago, with Scottie Scheffler winning his first FedExCup trophy at the TOUR Championship. The FedExCup Fall begins with this week’s tournament in Napa before taking two weeks off and then filling October and November with events that will ultimately determine a player’s status for next season. This series of events spanning from the Procore through The RSM Classic at the end of November will finalize the top 125 in the FedExCup Standings who will retain exempt status for 2025, with Nos. 126-150 retaining conditional status.
The Procore Championship is not a new tournament; it just has a new name after swapping out title sponsors. It was known as the Fortinet Championship for the last three years and the Safeway Open before that. The event has been held in the fall at Silverado Country Club in Napa County, CA, since 2014, so we do have a solid amount of course history to tap into this week.
The course itself is fairly straightforward and scorable. It’s one of the shortest on the PGA TOUR but is extremely narrow. Despite tricky greens, the birdie-to-bogey ratio is one of the highest on the PGA TOUR each year, and the course typically plays almost a full stroke under par. There isn’t much water to defend the course either, leaving the course vulnerable to anyone who can have a great week on approach and get hot with a putter.
Last year, Sahith Theegala got his breakthrough individual win on this track. He’ll be back to defend his title this year and is one of only five of the top 50 ranked players teeing it up this week. Some other big names to watch include Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, and two-time winner at Silverado Max Homa. Overall, the field is not extremely deep, but that’s typical for the fall part of the season, which gives golfers who missed the playoffs a chance to improve their status heading into next year.
Pinpointing which of these fringe golfers will pop for a big week can be challenging, but we’ll especially focus on course history, current form and Strokes Gained: Approach. We’ll be looking for players who putt well on Bermuda greens and can go low in favorable scoring conditions.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Sahith Theegala $10,600
Even though he is the defending champ, Theegala only has the fourth-highest ownership projection this week, making him a solid pay-up spot to gain good leverage. He has the second-highest Perfect% in the field and the shortest odds to win and to finish in the top 10, according to Vegas.
Since his ownership is low compared to his sim results, he has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field, along with the fifth-highest median and ceiling projections.
Theegala has played this course four times in his career and posted three top 15s, including back-to-back top 10s. The California native is clearly comfortable in this setup and has proven he can go low and thrive on this setup.
His form has been hit or miss this season, but he did notch eight top 10s, including a solo third at the TOUR Championship two weeks ago, where he finished with a closing 64. He also posted top 10s at the 3M Open and Genesis Scottish Open this summer.
On this course, he’s much more of a sure thing than the players with higher ownership, so he makes sense as a place to pay up for leverage. He has a high ceiling and offers better and more secure upside over players like Corey Conners and Wyndham Clark, who both have higher ownerships but mixed results on this course.
Luke Clanton $9,500
Clanton is the top-ranked amateur in the world and will tee it up for the seventh time on the PGA TOUR this season. He finished in the top 10 in three of those events, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic. He most recently competed on the PGA TOUR at the Wyndham Championship, where he finished T5.
The rising junior at Florida State will be playing this week on a sponsor’s exemption as he continues to try to earn points to earn his PGA TOUR card through the PGA TOUR University’s Accelerated program. Making the cut and finishing in the top 10 earn points, and he has shown he has the game to contend to even win on the PGA TOUR like amateur Nick Dunlap did earlier this season.
Clanton leads this field in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds and ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach over that span. If he does have a weakness, it is his scrambling and short game, but this setup should hide those issues a bit, allowing his ball striking to shine through.
The 20-year-old has the highest SimLeverage in the field since he has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Eric Cole $8,700
Cole doesn’t have the length to contend at some of the bombers’ paradise setups on the PGA TOUR, but his iron play and great short game have him as a strong option this week under $9,000. He has an ownership projection of just over 10%, but his Perfect% is just a little higher than that, making him a source of positive SimLeverage.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year didn’t make much noise early in 2024, but he finished strong by exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight tournaments, including three top 10s. Those finishes came on low-scoring tracks at the Rocket Mortgage, John Deere, and the Wyndham. He advanced to the BMW Championship but couldn’t quite make it to East Lake.
Over the last 36 rounds, Cole ranks 12th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total and is also in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Cole caught fire last fall, starting with a fourth-place finish at this event and posting four top fours in his last five events of 2023. He’ll look to jumpstart a similar finish this year at Silverado.
Adam Svensson $8,400
If you’re a regular reader, you know that Mac Meissner has been a fixture in my picks over the last few months. I like him a lot this week as well, but his ownership is too high to make him a top GPP play for me this week. Instead, I’m pivoting to Svensson, who has the approach game to contend at Silverado.
The 30-year-old Canadian has made the cut in 14 of his last 16 events and exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of those tournaments. In that run, which dates back to March, he finished in the top 20 only twice, but both were in the last three months, including his season-best T7 at the Wyndham in his most recent tournament.
Svensson ranks in the top 20 in the field in both Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 16 rounds. He also brings a solid course history, having gone 3-for-3, making the cut with a T12 last year.
He has the highest SimLeverage of all golfers, between $7,500 and $9,500, and the third-highest in the field.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Rico Hoey $7,700
Of the 144 players in the field at Silverado, 124 have salaries under $8,000. There is plenty of value to be had in this field, but it’s tricky to find the right places to get it. The players with the top two ceiling projections in this price range both have ownership projections over 12%, but Hoey has the third-highest ceiling projection under $8,000 and an ownership projection under 10%.
Hoey will be making his debut at Silverado, but he comes in with enough excellent recent form that I’m willing to look past his lack of course history to get his upside. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight tournaments dating back to his top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He finished in the top 30 in five of those six events, including a runner-up finish at the ISCO Championship.
Over the last 20 rounds, Hoey ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Total and 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
While he will be making his debut at this event, he did play his college golf at USC, so the feel of a California course should be familiar enough that he has the potential to contend if his form continues.
Ben Kohles $7,200
Kohles is another play under $8,000 who is popping in our projections based on his recent form. He missed the cut in his debut at Silverado back in 2021, but he has the highest SimLeverage of all players under $9,000 this week.
Like Cole, he doesn’t have a ton of length off the tee, but Kohles is known for his elite accuracy off the tee. He’s actually the most accurate driver in the field over his last 24 rounds. He ranks in the top 25 in the field of Total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds as well.
Kohles made the cut in nine of his last 11 tournaments, including a runner-up finish at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He missed the cut at the Wyndham in his last event, which snapped a five-tournament streak of exceeding expectations.
With an ownership projection under 4%, our models point to Kohles as one of the best leverage plays of the week, and he brings plenty of upside for a play just over $7,000.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
S.H. Kim $7,000
If you’re looking for a flier play on the cheap side of the salary structure, I prefer to target someone with “spike” upside like Kim. He can be very inconsistent, but when he does hit, he has shown he can finish high on the leaderboard.
Last year, Kim finished runner-up at this event and he also made the cut in his debut in 2022. Kim returns to Silverado riding a little momentum after exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four events, highlighted by a top 20 at the Barracuda Championship.
He showed off a high ceiling with a T14 at the Valero Texas Open and a T4 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson earlier this season as well before going quiet for the past couple of months.
This week, Kim is definitely a “swing for the fences” pick, but he could carry your lineup if he connects at his ownership projection under 3%.
Kevin Chappell $6,500
Chappell’s ownership projection for this week is under 1%, but he brings the second-highest ceiling projection of all players with salaries of $6,500 or lower. He also has the highest Perfect% in that price range, which is why he also has the top SimLeverage.
The 38-year-old California native comes into this week with some positive momentum. He made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight events, including a top 20 at the Barracuda Championship. He played the Czech Masters on the DP World Tour a few weeks ago and made the cut there as well, finishing in the top 40 mostly on the strength of a 63 in Round 2.
Chappell starts the FedExCup Fall at No. 166 in the standings and will need a strong Fall to secure his full-time card over the next few weeks. If he keeps making cuts in that quest, getting him at only $6,500 will be a great leverage play this week.
