This might be one of the shortest pieces I’ll ever write for FantasyLabs. We’re already off to a strong start.
This is the 45th installment of The Labyrinthian, a series dedicated to exploring random fields of knowledge in order to give you unordinary theoretical, philosophical, strategic, and/or often rambling guidance on daily fantasy sports. Consult the introductory piece to the series for further explanation.
The NBA Playoffs are Ending
We’re at that point of the NBA postseason where only the true degenerates are left (both in terms of DFS players and actual NBA players . . . #NailedIt). If you’re still playing, here are 10 rules that I think might help you survive.
No. 1: Listen to the DFS Roundtable Podcast on Postseason NBA
Although the DFS Roundtable episode dedicated to postseason NBA was released almost three weeks ago, it’s still applicable. If you never listened to it, you should.
No. 2: Transition from NBA to MLB
If you find that postseason NBA DFS isn’t what you hoped that it would be, it might be time for you to transition from NBA to MLB, because you know that you don’t actually need to be playing NBA DFS at this point of the year, right?
No. 3: Don’t Be a Victim of the Ultimatum Fallacy
Let me repeat that last thought: You know that you don’t actually need to be playing NBA DFS at this point of the year, right? It will come around again. Just because your ability to play NBA DFS will soon be gone, that doesn’t mean that you need to continue to play it. Don’t be a victim of the ultimatum fallacy. DFS exists to serve you, not vice versa. If you believe that you don’t have an edge in the postseason NBA DFS slates, don’t feel the need to continue playing them. That NBA DFS is almost over shouldn’t factor into your decision.
No. 4: Focus on Tournaments
If you are going to continue to play, focus on tournaments. In slates this small, cash games are usually suboptimal. It would not be out of the question to think that you and your opponents could have significant overlap in lineups, which would mean that the bulk of your cash game contests would be decided by the performances of only a few players, and that’s not ideal. So maybe stop playing cash games and instead focus on tournaments.
No. 5: Be Uniquely Contrarian
In a small slate, you need to think of imaginative ways to be contrarian. Maybe consider starting three shooting guards. Seek out improbable probabilities. Chase Black Swans by targeting antifragile situations. Entertain all contrarian strategies. (And click on all the f*cking links.)
No. 6: Use the Lineup Builder
Of course, you could ignore a lot of what I just said, stop trying to micro-design theoretically perfect lineups for guaranteed prize pools, and instead shotgun hundreds of tournament lineups at one time through the use of the lineup builder within our NBA Players Models. You can (and should) still employ a lot of strategy via the lineup builder, but it might be better to let that tool do a lot of the work for you.
No. 7: Don’t Use All of the Salary Cap
One particular way to be contrarian would be essentially to ignore the salary cap. Just build lineups that have a chance of being unique. If some of them use almost all of the salary cap, great. If not, that might be even better, because those lineups probably have an even better chance of being unique.
Far too many people focus on the salary cap. In larger slates, minding the cap makes sense, because with more players available to use you can usually maximize your use of the cap while still being contrarian. But, in smaller slates, attempting to use 99 percent or more of the cap might actually inhibit your ability to create unique lineups. So don’t feel as if you need to use all of the salary cap. You don’t need to, and you probably shouldn’t.
No. 8: Stack Teams
Also, I would recommend stacking teams in at least some of your lineups. Doing so is generally a suboptimal strategy for cash games (at least in the NBA), but it could give you some unique tournament lineups, and if a team gets hot and has a big game then you could be in a position to capitalize.
No. 9: Use Late Swap Strategically
Don’t just use late swap. Instead, use late swap strategically. And remember not to pull out of a long narrow driveway in reverse at night.
No. 10: Say Goodbye with Grace
There’s an art to saying goodbye, to leaving before a party has officially ended, and to breaking up. Anyone worth being in a relationship with is the type of person who would make breaking up easier. If NBA DFS was important enough to you to play for an entire season, then it’s important enough to be treated with dignity when it’s time to say goodbye. Say goodbye with grace. Don’t cling to it longer than you should.
I’m not saying that now is the time to part, but that time is approaching. Only you can decide when the time is right. And when that time comes, don’t stay longer than you should. Simply kiss it on the forehead, thank it for the memories, wish it well, tell it that you look forward to seeing it in the future, and then walk away without looking back.
In the words of John Milton’s “Lycidas”:
And now the sun had stretched out all the hills,
And now was dropped into the western bay;
At last he rose, and twitched his mantle blue:
Tomorrow to fresh woods and pastures new.
Thank you, NBA DFS. You were a good friend. I’ll see you next season.
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The Labyrinthian: 2016, 45
Previous installments of The Labyrinthian can be accessed via my author page. If you have suggestions on material I should know about or even write about in a future Labyrinthian, please contact me via email, [email protected], or Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
