Plus/Minus Situations to Exploit on DraftKings in Week 10

One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.

Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.

Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s matchups.

Quarterback

Blake Bortles – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.4

Bortles is the 12^th highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings this week, but in a dream matchup with Baltimore’s sieve of a pass defense – the Ravens are allowing the second-most DK points per game. We have him projected for the fourth-highest point total.

The Jaguars will travel to Baltimore for this game and are currently 5.5-point underdogs. Historically, this situation has been very beneficial to starting quarterbacks.

Keep an eye on Allen Hurns’ availability – if he were to miss this game, it would reduce the appeal of Bortles a bit as Baltimore would be able to key on Allen Robinson.

Running Back

Darren McFadden – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.0

Despite a recent price increase, McFadden is still criminally underpriced as the 15^th highest-priced running back on DraftKings this week. Our projections peg the former Oakland Raider as the fourth-highest projected running back of the week. Boasting one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL – a league-leading 85 touches over the previous three games – McFadden has one of the safest floors of the week.

Based on the previous couple of years, running backs coming into the week with a Projected Plus/Minus of at least nine points have fared extremely well.

Starting a road underdog at running back is generally a sub-optimal decision, but McFadden’s involvement in the passing game – he is averaging three catches per games since Matt Cassel has taken over as the starter – should keep his usage at an acceptable level regardless of game flow.

Wide Receiver

Brandon LaFell – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.4

Priced below players such as Breshad Perriman (who has yet to play this season), LaFell is the 43^rd highest-priced receiver on DraftKings this week. Coming off of his first 100-yard outing of the season, LaFell will get to face a New York Giants secondary that is currently surrendering the seventh-most DK points to wide receivers on the season.

Receivers with a projected point total similar to LaFell’s, and against comparably subpar pass defenses, have been very productive over the course of the last two and a half years.

At LaFell’s price, you won’t find a better value at wide receiver this week.

Tight End

Richard Rodgers – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.3

The 15^th highest-priced tight end at $3,000 this week, Rodgers is in play if you’re looking for some salary relief. Detroit has been stout against tight ends in terms of yards allowed, but have struggled keeping them out of the end zone. The Lions have allowed six touchdowns this season, fourth most in the league. As Rodgers is heavily touchdown dependent, this sets up nicely for him.

Rodgers has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the past two and a half seasons for a tight end facing an opponent with an Opponent Plus/Minus rating greater than 2.0. While no other player has had quite as high of a Plus/Minus in the past, we can look at players with a comparable Plus/Minus (>6.0) for comparison.

These historical results look promising for Rodgers’ prospects this week, with all previous tight ends providing a nice return on investment.

In addition to all of the above, Rodgers also has Green Bay’s high implied team total of 29.5 points working in his favor. This should allow them to visit the red zone often, providing him with multiple chances at a score this week.

D/ST

Philadelphia D/ST – Projected Plus/Minus: +2.6

Coming in as the 14^th highest-priced defense on DraftKings this week, Philadelphia will take on the volatile Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has been productive over stretches this season – he has six games with multiple touchdowns – but has the ability to underperform on any given week. Five times this season he has thrown multiple interceptions in a game.

Heavy favorites at home, this opportunistic defense – Philadelphia leads the league with 2.5 takeaways per game – has history on its side.

With their budget-friendly price, Philadelphia makes for an interesting tournament play against the erratic Dolphins this week.