NFL Trend of the Week
Through only three weeks, the 2016 season has blessed us with multiple solid fantasy performances during prime time games. We’ve seen Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams dominate the Redskins, Stefon Diggs tear apart the Packers, and a shootout between the Saints and Falcons — a game held in the Coors Field of NFL DFS.
Targeting these prime time matches has been a productive strategy so far this year, which led me to wonder this: Do players actually perform better under the bright lights? Let’s run a trend and find out.
Quarterbacks
Projections > Proj Pts > 5 to 27.5
By setting a minimum of five projected points, we’re filtering for only starting quarterbacks. This DraftKings +2.03 Plus/Minus will be our baseline moving forward.
Time Filters > Time of Day > 18 to 22
While these initial results don’t show a major difference for quarterbacks playing in games 6:00pm or later, it is always concerning when the Plus/Minus falls below the baseline.
But what about specific days? Does it matter if the team’s prime time matchup is on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday?
Time Filters > Day of Week > Thursday
Whoa. Now that’s interesting. Quarterbacks playing on a short week tend to have much lower Plus/Minus values.
Time Filters > Day of Week > Sunday
The exact opposite happens on Sunday night, as the baseline Plus/Minus actually increases to +2.87; we’re finally moving in the right direction.
Time Filters > Day of Week > Monday
Quarterback performances during Monday Night Football seem to land right in the middle of all the prime time slots with a Plus/Minus of +1.55. Again, this is concerning, as it’s falling below the baseline.
Wide Receivers
Considering wide receiver production is closely correlated with quarterback production, the Plus/Minus results look very similar when running the same trends.
• Baseline: +1.34
• Prime time: +0.80
• Thursday: +0.16
• Sunday: +1.15
• Monday: +1.00
After accounting for backups, the baseline Plus/Minus for wide receivers is set at +1.34. Unfortunately, each prime time slot fails to exceed this baseline. In fact, the numbers drop even further from the baseline than they did for quarterbacks.
Tight Ends
Like wide receivers, tight end production is also tied to quarterbacks. However, the Plus/Minus results are surprising.
• Baseline: +0.79
• Prime time: +1.26
• Thursday: +0.99
• Sunday: +1.64
• Monday: +0.76
Again, Sunday Night Football provides the best results. However, unlike quarterbacks and wide receivers, tight ends perform quite well during prime time slates, beating the baseline in both Thursday and Sunday night games, too.
Running Backs
Considering quarterbacks and wide receivers tend to disappoint in prime time, is it safe to assume running back production is the opposite? Let’s explore.
• Baseline: +1.75
• Prime time: +2.56
• Thursday: +2.61
• Sunday: +2.19
• Monday: +2.77
Now we’re talking. Running backs clearly provide stronger value during prime time games.
In the Thursday night games where quarterbacks and receivers struggle, running backs appear to shine. This negative correlation between the positions continues on Sunday, as running backs drop off slightly but remain above the baseline. Finally, the best Plus/Minus value of all trends run comes from running backs playing on Monday night (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, anyone?).
The Takeaway
Overall, it appears running backs are the true prime time studs; they boast the best Plus/Minus values among all the skill positions. Both tight ends and running backs have historically had solid performances on Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football (we see you, Matt Forte and LeGarrette Blount), whereas quarterbacks and wide receivers tend to underachieve. Conversely, Sunday Night Football games, which are often among the best matchups of the week, tend to be more balanced.
