Whether you buy into THE PLAYERS Championship as the fifth Major Championship or not, it’s consistently one of the best tournaments of the season and brings the biggest names on the PGA TOUR to one of the most well-known courses for some of the most memorable results. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the event, so expect plenty of coverage of the history and prestige of THE PLAYERS as a great 2024 season continues.
Last week at Bay Hill, Scottie Scheffler finally got his putting right and ran away with his first win of the season. He’ll be back in action this week to defend his PLAYERS title from last season. Scheffler enters the week as the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking and the current FedExCup standings. He’s one of many big names teeing it up this week, with Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland joining him as the six players with DFS salaries over $10,000.
Since THE PLAYERS is not officially a Signature Event this season, the field this week is also extremely deep. There are 144 players scheduled to tee it up at TPC Sawgrass this week, with the typical cut reducing the field to the top 65 and ties after Round 2. Also, 23 rookies are teeing it up this week, joining nine past PLAYERS champions. The last player to qualify was Brice Garnett, who won last week’s alternate field event at the Puerto Rico Open in a four-hole playoff.
One of the best parts of THE PLAYERS every year is how familiar and iconic the course is at TPC Sawgrass. The island green at No. 17 is probably the best-known and most entertaining hole in all of golf, and multiple other holes are instantly recognizable. The course usually provides a difficult test for golfers, with scores only barely under par depending on weather conditions. The setup brings a lot of volatility as well, with smaller greens and precarious hazards resulting in potentially major swings at almost any moment.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
In this post, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $2.4M 2024 Golf Premiere Millionaire, which awards a $1 million top prize to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Justin Thomas $10,600
As he probably deserves after last week’s dramatic putting improvement, Scottie Scheffler reigns supreme in most categories this week, including projected ownership. It’s hard to pick against him to win the week, and he should definitely be in some of your lineup constructions. However, if you’re looking to pivot to an alternative as a game theory play or to partner Scottie with another high-priced star, check out the resurgent Justin Thomas.
JT has less than half the projected ownership of Scheffler and comes at a salary that is more than $2,000 lower. Thomas has the fifth-highest Perfect% in the field and the fourth-best odds to win or post a top 10, according to Vegas.
While the other non-Scottie elite options have had some very questionable form lately, Thomas has looked much improved from last season when he failed to make the FedExCup Playoffs. Since then, though, he notched six top-15 finishes in PGA TOUR and DP World Tour events, including last week’s T12 at Bay Hill. He ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Stokes Gained both over the last six months and over the last 24 rounds. He also ranks in the top 15 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over the last 24 rounds.
Thomas also has an excellent history at TPC Sawgrass. He has made the cut in each of his eight career appearances at THE PLAYERS, including his win in 2021 and three other top 25s. No other player in the field has played this event more than five times and made the cut in every trip, which speaks to both the volatility of the course and Thomas’s impressive consistency.
Max Homa $9,600
Another top player whose form and course history give him a good shot at contending with Scottie this week is Max Homa. Homa has already notched four top 20s this year, including finishing in the top 10 last week at Bay Hill. His putting was especially strong at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as it has been most of the season.
While he’s known for his exploits on the West Coast, he has also played well in Florida at TPC Sawgrass. In the last two years, he finished T13 and T6 with sub-70 Final Rounds each year. He has the second-highest Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round at this venue in the field. If his approach game is near that level this week, along with his improved putting, he should be able to contend this week.
Over the past couple of years, Homa has been one the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR. As a result, he brings a high floor along with his high ceiling. Getting that kind of stability and upside with only about 10% projected ownership makes him a very strong play. Homa has proven in his career that he’s at his best on tough tracks in elite fields like this one.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $8,900
Another player with a history of success at difficult courses in elite fields is Jason Day, who brings the second-highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $9,000 along with the second-highest SimLeverage of the mid-priced tier between $7,800 and $9,000.
Day won THE PLAYERS in 2016 and has posted six top 25s in his 13 career appearances. He missed the cut two years ago but finished T19 last year as part of his career turnaround in 2023. After finishing 2023 with a win in the unofficial Grant Thornton Invitational, he has made the cut in five of his six PGA Tour events in 2024 with three top 10s, each coming in a Signature Event against a tough field.
With his ownership projection under 10%, Day provides a great spot to get leverage while still getting a proven performer on this difficult course.
Sungjae Im $8,400
Is it too early to say that Sungjae Im is back? Probably so, but it was a great sign to see his game return to form last week at Bay Hill. After struggling for several months, the 25-year-old from South Korea seemed to find his footing. After losing strokes in just about every category throughout his first few events of the season, he gained strokes tee to green, off the tee, on approach, around the green, and with the flat stick last week on his way to a T18.
Before his recent mediocre results, Im showed that he has the perfect game to contend at TPC Sawgrass when he’s at his best. He made the cut in each of the last three years at this track and finished T6 last year.
If last week’s showing truly is the start of a turnaround, getting him at barely over 5% ownership would be a steal since his ceiling is so high when his game is right. It might be too early to call it a comeback, but I’m okay with being a week early at this ownership projection. He’s high-risk, but his upside is enormous.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Eric Cole $7,700
Two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic, Eric Cole was a very popular play, landing in over 20% of lineups. He let his owners down by crashing out after an opening round 78, and there seems to be a little hangover in going back to Cole since this week his ownership projection is under 5%.
Cole bounced back from that bad week with another top 25 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has six top 25s in his nine events this year. Since last year’s TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP, he has finished T21 or better in 10 of his 14 events. He also finished T27 last year in his debut at TPC Sawgrass, so he has shown he can find his way around this tricky layout.
The 35-year-old who won the PGA TOUR’s Rookie of the Year last year is an ultimate grinder. Since so many people are out on him after he was a disappointment two weeks ago, he turns into a great contrarian option this week whose game fits the venue since he is an accuracy player who can catch fire with his irons.
Cameron Davis $7,000
If you’ve been reading my posts over the past year, you know I’ve been a huge Erik Van Rooyen fan and touted him in many tournaments. I love him this week as well, but his ownership projection has crept too high to include him in my top GPP plays. I’ll have him in my lineups again this week, but if you’re looking to differentiate your roster with a lower-owned player, check out Cameron Davis, who is a little cheaper than EVR and comes at about half the projected ownership.
Davis has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 13 PGA TOUR events dating back to last summer. He has made the cut in five of his six tournaments in 2024 and posted top 20s at Pebble Beach and Bay Hill. Over the last six months, he ranks in the top 30 in the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Strokes Gained: Short Game.
Davis has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all players with salaries under $8,000 and has the fifth-highest Perfect% of the players in that salary range.
Last year, Davis was in the mix at THE PLAYERS after the first two rounds but faded on the weekend, finishing T6. He will look for a better finish this season, and getting him at $7,000 with such low ownership makes him an outstanding option.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Matthieu Pavon $6,700
While he’ll be making his debut at TPC Sawgrass, Matthieu Pavon is still a great sleeper play since he has been able to find so much success at difficult venues since making the move over from the DP World Tour. Over the last three months, Pavon has been second in the field in Total Strokes Gained and second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. He also ranks in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach over that span, so his game has been fairly well-rounded.
The 31-year-old Frenchman claimed a huge win at Torrey Pines on a tough track in an elite field and posted another top 10 at Pebble Beach in a signature event. He isn’t coming off his best week after finishing T52 at Bay Hill, but that helps to keep his ownership projection down.
Pavon hasn’t missed a cut on the PGA TOUR or the DP World Tour since early September, and his upside is unmatched in the players with salaries under $7,000. He has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections of all players in that salary range and the highest Perfect% as well.
Aaron Rai $6,400
You might remember this from last year. Aaron Rai‘s hole-in-one on Saturday on No. 17 was spectacular and buoyed him to a T19 in his first career appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Rai’s ownership projection is slightly higher than Pavon’s this week but still very manageable under 10%. He comes at a very affordable salary and brings the second-highest median and ceiling projection of all players with salaries under $7,000.
Rai didn’t play Bay Hill last week, but he did notch a top-25 in the Puerto Rico Open, the PGA TOUR’s Alternate Field Event. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that tournament, as he has in five of his six events this season. He also finished in the top 20 at the Mexico Open, so he comes in with pretty good momentum over his last eight rounds, ranking in the top five in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach during that small sample size.
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