From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview
The Chip Kelly era in Philadelphia was fast-paced, entertaining, and over after three seasons. Back-to-back 10-6 campaigns in 2013 and 2014 weren’t enough to make up for the Eagles’ 6-9 start in 2015, as Kelly was unceremoniously fired after Week 16 of the 2015 season. While Kelly’s famed no-huddle offense didn’t exactly fall apart — finishing 13th in scoring with 23.6 points per game last season — the Eagle’s promotion of Kelly to the team’s general manager position may have ultimately been his undoing.
The 2015 season was defined by the failure of new Eagles Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray to find their rhythm in Kelly’s offense. The Eagles had the problematic issue of having an offense that couldn’t establish the run and a defense that couldn’t stop anybody (ranked 28th in scoring at 26.9 points per game). Doug Pederson, who served as the Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015, is the Eagles new head coach for 2016, and Frank Reich, who served as the San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015, is the new offensive coordinator in Philly.
Six of the Eagles’ nine losses came by at least two scores 2015, but Vegas believes that the Eagles’ seven-win campaign will be repeated, as their 2016 win total has been set at exactly seven. For the team to reach that total, a new offensive system will need to be learned quickly and the $280 million in guaranteed money that the Eagles dished out during the offseason (primarily to help the defense) will need to be turned into actual production. Yes, there is change in the air in Philadelphia. How will this change impact the fantasy seasons of the actual players?
Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford
After being traded to the Eagles in the 2015 offseason, Bradford did himself no favors in quelling high expectations after he completed all 10 of his pass attempts with three touchdowns in a preseason Week 3 performance for the ages. Unfortunately for Bradford, success in the regular season was harder to achieve, according to our Trends tool:
After nine weeks the Eagles were sitting at a reasonable 4-5 record, yet Bradford’s fantasy production was nowhere near a playable DFS level. His 33.3 percent Consistency in particular was atrocious. If extrapolated to the end of the season, Bradford’s average DraftKings points through his first nine games would have ranked him as the 32nd-scoring quarterback, which is a far cry from the breakout quarterback the Eagles (and many DFS players) were expecting.
But then things changed. Bradford got injured (surprise!), and after missing two games with a concussion and sprained AC joint he returned and started playing at a much higher level:
With an average of 18.58 fantasy points per game, Bradford’s final five games in 2015 were a move in the right direction. However, this average stretched over an entire season still wouldn’t make Bradford a top-20 fantasy quarterback. He finished the year ranked 30th in average fantasy points per game, and it’s hard to imagine him improving much (if any) in 2016.
With Kelly no longer running the show in Philadelphia, the Eagles offense will look very different this season. It’s safe to assume that the combination of Pederson and Reich will continue to utilize the Eagles running backs in the receiving game — Darren Sproles is every bit the receiver that Danny Woodhead and Jamaal Charles are — but Pederson is calling the plays in Philadelphia this year, and Alex Smith was just the 17th-best fantasy quarterback during Pederson’s three years in Kansas City.
Smith is a viable fantasy option, but there is reason to believe that Bradford won’t be able to reach even Smith’s level of fantasy competency. The reason is simple: Smith is a very productive rushing quarterback. He has the fourth-most rushing yards of any quarterback since 2013, and this running ability is simply a skill that Bradford does not have.
Sometimes it’s hard to accept that a player may never live up to his high expectations, but even though Bradford was once a No. 1 overall NFL draft pick we now have 63 careers starts suggesting that he is likely never to be an elite fantasy option. Bradford ranks 66th in the NFL since 2010 with an adjusted yards/attempt average of just 6.11, behind the likes of Tim Tebow and Jake Locker. That is not good. While Bradford’s inaccuracy on deep balls may be a bit overstated — his 40.7 percent accuracy on throws downfield was 15th in the NFL in 2015 — we shouldn’t expect Bradford to be anything more than a matchup-reliant fantasy option, based on everything we’ve seen from him (and his coaches) in the last few years.
Chase Daniel
Bradford has played in just 63 of a potential 96 games since entering the league in 2010, so it’s safe to say that Daniel should expect to see a bit of action in 2016. Daniel backed up Alex Smith from 2013 to 2015, so he’s familiar with Pederson’s system, which should help him if/when he needs to start — but Daniel has thrown only 77 pass attempts in his career and only one of those went for a touchdown. Then again, only one of those also went for an interception. In other words, he looks exactly the way you’d expect a guy to look when he spent three years backing up Smith.
Carson Wentz
Despite being the second-overall pick, Wentz is not expected to dress for games this season and could struggle if forced to play early due to his limited exposure to top-level competition in college. With 17 touchdowns passing in eight games played as a redshirt senior competing in the Football Championship Subdivision, a typical top-of-the-draft quarterback this guy is not.
Running Backs
Ryan Mathews
Mathews has started nearly 80 percent of his career games, yet he has never received the type of usage that most would expect from a No. 1 running back. Averaging 14 carries per game in his career, Mathews bested that total only once in 2015. Despite this lack of usage, Mathews may be the player most adversely affected by Kelly’s departure from Philly.
With 5.04 yards per carry in 2015, Mathews’ career-high average was good for 2nd in the NFL among all running backs with at least 100 carries. Last year much was made of the demise of DeMarco, and his 3.64 yards/carry average was tied for fifth-worst among running backs with at least 100 carries. By almost every measure, Mathews was clearly the more efficient option in Kelly’s no-huddle shotgun-heavy attack.
Of course, Mathews’ high rushing average was already likely to regress this season, and Kelly’s departure probably won’t do Mathews any favors. On top of that, he has played in all 16 games just once in his six-year NFL career, and no one knows this more than the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator Reich, who coached Mathews in 2014, when he missed 10 games to injury. In the six games that Mathews did play for Reich, he surpassed 12 carries only once. Throw in the presence of Sproles as the Eagles’ passing-down back, and it’s hard to expect a healthy, high-usage season out of Mathews.
Darren Sproles
Despite averaging fewer than 4.0 yards/carry for the first time since 2009, Sproles still received the second-highest offensive touch total of his career. Somewhat surprisingly — considering the Eagles’ cluttered backfield — Sproles had a solid 2015 fantasy season, regularly surpassing his salary-based expectations by an average of more than three points:
Sproles will get his fair share of receptions in 2016, and the offensive philosophies of Pederson and Reich should serve Sproles well. Not only did Sproles himself receive the fourth-most targets among all running backs from 2014 to 2015, but both Pederson and Reich also fed targets to their running backs at top-ten rates. Sproles would get a nice uptick in usage if Mathews were to go down with an injury (Sproles’ two highest rush-attempt games in 2015 both came when Mathews or Murray was out), but Sproles has never be a weekly 20-touch guy in his career, even when the opportunity was there. Still, Sproles provides a healthy floor with his receiving workload, and is always an undervalued stacking option to pair with the Eagles D/ST, given with his returning capabilities.
Wendell Smallwood
The Big 12’s leading rusher in 2015 with 1,519 rushing yards, Smallwood entered training camp expected to earn the No. 3 job. That hasn’t happened. There are early concerns about his pass blocking. It also didn’t help that he was injured at points in the preseason.
Still, Smallwood has turned heads in camp. The fifth-round pick’s 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the combine shows the big-play potential that he has, and with 57 receptions in his final two seasons the early entrant from West Virginia has sneaky potential to be a three-down back. He just might not get that opportunity.
Kenjon Barner
With just 34 career carries and a rushing averaging of 3.9 yards/carry, Barner has not shown much in his brief NFL career. Still, he looked good enough in the preseason to earn the No. 3 job. The ultimate irony would be for the Oregon product to have a breakout NFL season the year after Kelly leaves.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews
The only Eagles receiver to record double-digit red-zone targets in 2015, Matthews averaged 15.23 DraftKings points per game, good for 24th at the position. There’s reason to believe that 2015 could just be the beginning for Matthews:
A brutal Plus/Minus of -1.9 during Matthews’ first seven games of 2015 was replaced by a very consistent Plus/Minus of +5.95 after the Eagles’ Week 8 bye. At 6’3” and 212 lbs, Matthews is one of the largest slot receivers in the league, using his combination of size and athleticism to exploit overmatched cornerbacks, and Pederson has indicated that the slot will once again be Matthews’ home for the majority of his snaps in 2016.
Look to feature Matthews in his two matchups against the division rival Redskins, as new lockdown corner Josh Norman doesn’t typically follow No. 1 receivers to the slot. In these games, Mathews may have artificially depressed ownership.
Matthews is essentially Allen Robinson at a massive discount based on their performance over their first two years. Since the NFL switched to the 16-game season in 1978, only one second-round wide receiver has had more touchdowns in his first two seasons. And only six have had more yards receiving.
Nelson Agholor
At the conclusion of his 2015 rookie season, Agholor found himself on two different top-10 lists that told two very different stories. His 44 targets ranked 9th among rookies (even though he missed three games). However, Agholor struggled a bit with drops, finishing in the top 10 in drops/target among all receivers to record at least 20 receptions. Even worse, Agholor posted a season long Plus/Minus of -3.81, demonstrating just how underwhelming Agholor’s 2015 debut was.
Agholor will ideally serve as the Eagles’ downfield threat, a role to which he is athletically suited as evidenced by his 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the 2015 combine. To succeed in this role, Agholor will need to show that last season’s 12.3 yards/reception average and 2.27 percent touchdown rate aren’t representative of his ability. Last year’s first-round pick will certainly get more opportunities as the Eagles’ full-time No. 2 wide receiver this year, but Bradford’s low ceiling will likely limit Agholor’s breakout potential.
Dorial Green-Beckham
Ultimately, the Titans decided that they could live with Justin Hunter but not DGB. That’s really saying something. DGB was acquired by the Eagles for Guard/Tackle Dennis Kelly. Green-Beckham has prototypical speed (4.49-second 40-yard dash) and size (6’5” and 237 lbs.) for a WR1 but he struggled to earn a consistent role on the Titans despite a weak receiver depth chart.
Still, Green-Beckham posted a Plus/Minus of +5.42 in the Titans’ final five games of 2015, a stretch that included two performances of 100-plus yards. Green-Beckham’s physical gifts give him a chance to earn a starting role for the Eagles. Matthews won’t need to worry about his targets, but Agholor could be sent down the depth chart if Green-Beckham plays up to his abilities. His presence on the team pretty much made Roobs expendable.
In two preseason games with the team, he has two receptions for 15 yards and one touchdown on five targets. All of that seems about right.
Rueben Randle
All good things must come to an end. And all bad things, too. Some team will likely add the perennial underachiever to its roster. San Francisco? Whatever. It doesn’t matter.
Josh Huff
Another player from Oregon, Huff doubles as the Eagles kick returner but has failed to do much with his 58 career targets, posting a mundane 11.6 yards/reception average. But at least his 5.17 percent touchdown rate is much better than Agholor’s.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz
While Brent Celek has been the Eagles starting tight end for most games over the last three years, Ertz is Philly’s real fantasy asset at the position. At first glance it might appear that Ertz has done a great job progressing in his career, but the 2015 numbers are a bit misleading. Ertz did amass a career-high 853 receiving yards last year, but over 32 percent of these yards came in Weeks 16 and 17 and nearly 30 percent of his 75 receptions. Perhaps Bradford and Ertz finally found their rhythm at the season’s close, but the larger trends don’t look good for Ertz, whose touchdown total and receiving average have decreased in each of his three NFL seasons. Let’s be careful about calling Ertz’s hot end to 2015 a breakout.
Still, the success of Antonio Gates and Travis Kelce with Reich and Pederson bodes well for Ertz. To be a reliable fantasy option in 2016 he will need to find the end zone more often than he has previously — he has scored five touchdowns over the last two seasons — but there’s reason to believe that he could get more opportunities in the new Eagles’ offense. Under Kelly the Eagles scored 39 percent of their 2015 red-zone touchdowns via the running game, which was the 6th-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, both the Chargers and Chiefs distributed red-zone touchdowns to tight ends at a top-12 rate.
Brent Celek
Celek’s offensive involvement and production have decreased in each of the last four seasons. There’s no reason to believe that 2016 will be the year in which the 31-year-old ‘starter’ sees his fortune change. Unless Ertz goes down with an injury, Celek will not offer a high enough usage rate to be a viable fantasy option. We can only hope that he doesn’t steal too many (red-zone) targets from Ertz, because the sad fact is that since Ertz entered the NFL he has nine touchdowns on 258 targets — and Celek has 10 on 137.
Trey Burton
Burton — the former Florida tight end who used to play quarterback before he became a wide receiver who turned into a tight end — has been, “perhaps the biggest standout at training camp,” per Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice. A Jordan Reed-esque talent, Burton had a 2014 combine performance that was a work of art. With only three receptions in two seasons, Burton must continue to improve in order to see playing time, but he has upside and could slide ahead of Celek on the depth chart if he continues to tear up the preseason.
Two-Minute Warning
2016 is a rebuilding year for the Eagles. While a defensive improvement is expected thanks to A) the large amount of offseason spending and B) the expectation that the Eagles offense won’t be on and off the field quite so quickly, this team on offense is still relying on an array of players with substantial injury histories. The odds that Bradford and Mathews play in all 16 games together are slim to none. Of course, any time missed by the starting backfield could present potentially juicy opportunities to the likes of Daniel, Sproles, and potentially Barner or Smallwood against bottom-ten 2015 fantasy defenses, including the Cleveland Browns (Week 1) and New York Giants (Weeks 9 and 16).
While Vegas may be predicting another 7-9 season in Philadelphia, this team will likely look quite a bit different than last year’s. A defense that allows fewer points may be offset by a lower-scoring offense, as Kelly’s offense never finished worse than 13th in scoring. Pederson and Reich are bringing a new style to Philadelphia. It just may be a few years until that style is worth a lot for the purposes of fantasy football.
