This week the TOUR heads to Maui, Hawaii, as Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course hosts the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The course is a par-73 that measures about 7,600 yards with Bermuda greens. The winning score usually settles somewhere around the 20-under par range, however, last year Justin Thomas outlasted both Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele in a playoff at 14-under.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate; however, these players are great options in any contest type. Also check out Chris Murphy’s Course Preview and DFS Breakdown, where he highlights his eight favorite DFS picks based on course-fit at the Country Club of Jackson.
Note: My forthcoming analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column each week, which highlights golfers to buy and fade following each round of play at that week’s PGA TOUR event, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKing’s scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele ($10,000 DraftKings)
We will begin with the no-cut king himself. Schauffele recently tested positive for COVID-19 slightly before Christmas but has since been cleared and will be teeing it up this week in Maui. His history at this tournament is second to none, as he won here in 2019 by edging out Gary Woodland on the heels of a ridiculous final round, before losing in a playoff last year to Justin Thomas to finish in a tie for second.
In terms of recent rolling stats, the California native checks that box as well, as he ranks fifth in this field over his previous 16 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth on approach and maybe most importantly, first in SG: Putting. With the greens this week being larger than normal, being able to putt well will go a long way in deciding a winner. You save a nice bit of money from DJ, JT and Rahm, so starting cash game rosters with Schauffele is a very sound decision.
Patrick Reed ($9,600 DraftKings)
We love to target Reed at tracks where fairways are wide and how you perform off the tee is less important than other tournaments. It is no surprise that Captain America has had major success at Kapalua in the past due to the skillset required to win here. In six appearances at the TOC Reed has posted two runner up finishes, a win and a T-6.
While most of the players here will be playing their first competitive rounds in well over a month, Reed has stayed in peak form after posting a third place finish at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai a few weeks back. The wide fairways will allow Reed to spray it off the tee without penalty and his otherworldly short game will keep him in contention come Sunday evening. At $9,600 on DraftKings you could start your rosters with him if you are worried about Xander Schauffele’s recent COVID scare.
Tony Finau ($8,900 DraftKings)
Will this finally be the week Finau gets his first (real) PGA TOUR victory? He’s been knocking on the door for quite some time now and I’m expecting a monster season from the 31-year old Utah native. Finau is coming in firmly in control of his game, as over his past 16 rounds he sits eighth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Short Game.
In his lone appearance here in 2017 he finished in tie for ninth place. His distance off the tee will be a nice advantage this week and he will also look to take advantage of the wider than normal fairways. Finau is almost always going to be in cash game consideration when his price on DraftKings is under $9,000 in these types of fields. After an eighth place finish at Mayakoba his last time out, we should expect Finau to contend this week in Maui at a severely discounted price.
Scottie Scheffler ($8,500 DraftKings)
As you can probably see there is a theme here with the type of player we should be targeting this week. Scheffler has long been a favorite of mine if you have been reading my work for the past few months. This is largely due to the fact his price usually does not reflect his talent or birdie making ability. After testing positive for COVID it took Scheffler a little time to find his game, but he posted a T-19 at his debut at Augusta so we can safely put that narrative behind us.
Scheffler almost always outperforms his DraftKing’s salary due to his prolific birdie making and this week should be no different. He’s built in the same mold as DeChambeau and Finau as one of the longest hitters on TOUR and Kapalua is a track he should thrive. He fits in both balanced builds or as a second golfer on rosters starting with the upper echelon players like DJ, Rahm or JT.
Value Play
Jason Kokrak ($7,300 DraftKings)
This price is way too low for Kokrak after the way he played towards the end of 2020. We are guaranteed four full rounds and the big fella should be able to bomb it off the tee and make a ton of birdies this week. People may be off him due to his final two starts at The Master’s and at RSM, however, prior to that he had a pair of 17th place finishes at the U.S Open and ZOZO while also posting his first career PGA TOUR win at The CJ Cup.
It was his putting that carried him during that stretch, and being that putting is a key component at Kapalua, Kokrak should find success in his debut at this tournament. He’s one of the top value plays on the board
Sleeper Plays
Lanto Griffin ($6,900 DraftKings)
Griffin is usually a popular target at these no-cut events due to his normally depressed price. This week is no different as his $6,900 tag on DraftKings is probably $500-$600 too cheap for his talent level. Before missing the cut at the Masters — in which we can give him a pass for — Griffin played very well at the ZOZO and the CJ Cup, posting a T-11 and T-7 respectively.
Over his past 12 rounds in this field Griffin sits 11th in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Putting, both important stats at this course. In his debut here last year he finished in 13th place and we will gladly take that again this week at his price.
Other Targets
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200 DraftKings)
DeChambeau is my favorite GPP play on the board this week. There is no way he used these past few weeks off to go on vacation or relax. We know after his rather embarrassing performance at Augusta he was in the lab working on his game. HIs massive advantage off the tee will be on full display this week and due to the wide fairways he can spray it wherever he wants without penalty. He’ll likely be hitting gap wedge into the majority of par fours and as one of the best putters on TOUR, he could post the most birdies in the field this week. A massive threat to win and priced below the heavy favorites, Bryson is a nice way to get contrarian without losing any sort of upside.
