The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Bermuda this week as Port Royal Golf Club Golf hosts the Bermuda Championship. The course is a par-71 that measures at 6,828 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
It is a bit of a weird week with such a weak field. As such it is probably not wise to be playing cash games due to the volatility of most of the golfers we have teeing it up. Instead, I will be listing my favorite single entry GPP plays for the week.
Core Plays
Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,000 DraftKings)
Fitz is the best player in this field and is coming off a win at the Andalucia Masters on the Euro Tour. Normally when we have an $11,000 player in fields like this, it’s usually a no-brainer to just plug them into your lineups and build around them. However, there is no guarantee that Fitz blows this field away, and we are paying a pretty penny for him.
Now that we got the prefaces out of the way let’s go into what makes him a good play. This course is concise and features bermuda greens, both of which are Fitz’s specialties, as he’s arguably the best bermuda putter on the planet. It is not difficult by any means to fit him this week, and the floor is incredibly high here, making him a great play this week regardless of price.
Mito Pereira ($10,500 DraftKings)
Maybe the best pure ball-striker in this field, Pereira has played incredibly good golf in his brief PGA TOUR career. He got his TOUR card after he won three Korn Ferry Tour events in a calendar season, something only 12 people have done in the history of the sport. He’s the first to accomplish this feat since Wesley Bryan did back in 2016.
The Chilean ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach and SG: Ball-Striking over his past 16 rounds. His putter remains an enigma on a weekly basis, but he will be in position on most holes to make birdies and could tear this course apart. Pereira is a great play in all formats this week.
Seamus Power ($10,200 DraftKings)
Power has been playing great golf for the last few months now and is one of the few players in this field who’s played this event both years it’s been held. His finishes read T-37 and T-31, but again, he’s playing some of the best golf of his career, so we can expect him to improve on that this week.
Obviously, it feels weird to play a five-figure Seamus Power in any field, but he makes a ton of sense this week. He’s coming off a T-21 at the Shriner’s and ranks No.1 in this field on Approach over his past four rounds. If you feel like coming off the chalkier options above him, Power makes for a nice leverage play at this price.
Adam Hadwin ($9,400 DraftKings)
Hadwin is one of the few higher-priced veterans in a field full of newcomers, something that can come in handy and which will largely go overlooked. While it’s fun to roster these shiny new toys from the Korn Ferry Tour, sometimes it’s nice to just stick with what we know, which is that Hadwin is a professional golfer who has won on TOUR and plays well in weaker field events such as this.
He’s coming off a T-6 his last time out at the Shriner’s and gained strokes on approach in all four rounds. We already know he’s a terrific putter, so if he continues to strike his irons like he has been, he will make a ton of noise this week.
Mark Hubbard ($7,900 DraftKings)
Hubbard is another veteran in a field full of rookies. We have seen him have success in loaded fields before, so theoretically, he should be up for the task this week, especially at his cheap price tag. He also has some familiarity with this course as he played here back in 2019, finishing in a tie for 41st place. The vet ranks ninth in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds and is a very good bet to make the cut in this spot, which gives him pretty nice upside for the price.
Russell Knox ($7,700 DraftKings)
There is nothing particularly flash about rostering Russell Knox, but with some of the names priced ahead of him this week, he looks quite enticing at this $7,700 tag. Another guy who has played here both times this event has been held, he’s gone T-16 and T-11 in both trips. On a shorter course where driving accuracy is important, and lack of distance off the tee is not as penal, look no further than Mr. Knox, as that is his bread and butter.
If for whatever reason, you play cash games this week, Knox needs to be on your roster.
Beau Hossler ($7,000 DraftKings)
Hossler is someone I only look to target at alternate events with resort-type courses, which is what we’ll have this week. In two trips to Bermuda, he’s gone T-26, T24, which is nice to see when considering the rest of the options we have to choose from in the low $7,000 range on DraftKings. Hossler is also coming off a T-16 at the Fortinet the last time he teed it up, so his form is in good shape as well. With a bunch of unknowns in this range, Hossler actually provides a bit of safety for our rosters.
