The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Scottsdale, Arizona this week as TPC Scottsdale hosts the Waste Management Phoenix Open. After three straight weeks of multi-course rotations and 54-hole cuts, we are back to a standard PGA TOUR event with a two-round cut and four rounds on the same course. TPC Scottsdale is a 7,200 yard par-71 with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Jon Rahm ($11,600 DraftKings)
Rahm is the best player in the world by a wide margin right now. He’s coming back to a course where in six starts, he’s never finished worse than 16th place while posting three top 10s in that stretch as well. He is expensive, obviously, but he is by far the most likely in this field to post a top-10 finish, especially when you consider his history. He ranks No. 1 in this field in total strokes gained over his past 48, 36 and 24 rounds,
You do not need me to tell you to play World No. 1, but if for some reason you were having some trepidation of paying up this high in cash games, just know there is plenty of value this week to make it work.
Sam Burns ($9,300 DraftKings)
I will give Burns a pass for his MC at the Farmers. He shot a 67 on the North Course but blew up on Friday at the South Course with a 76 en route to missing his first cut since last year’s U.S Open. He hasn’t missed a cut at a non-major since the Valero Texas Open last April.
We are back on Bermuda this week, which we know is Burns’ specialty. After failing to make the weekend in his first two trips to Scottsdale, he posted a T-22 last year at this event. We also know he’s on the cusp of being one of the game’s true elites and is a far superior player than he’s ever been in his career. Sitting No. 3 in this field in total strokes gained across his past 36 rounds, Burns can make a ton of birdies this week. He’s an elite cash game option.
Daniel Berger ($9,200 DraftKings)
Berger withdrew prior to last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a back injury, which is slightly worrisome considering he was the defending champion. However, he had the same back injury the week prior at Torrey Pines and still finished T-20, so hopefully, the week of rest did him some good, and he’s ready to go for this week.
In seven trips to TPC Scottsdale in his career, Berger has four top-11 finishes. Had he played last week, his price on DraftKings would almost assuredly be closer to $10,000, so we are getting a nice discount here. Approach play will be paramount this week, which is right up Berger’s alley considering he ranks No. 1 in this field in that department over his past 48, 36, and 24 rounds.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,100 DraftKings)
Scheffler is clearly overshadowed by fellow wunderkind Collin Morikawa, as the latter already has two majors to his name at age 25. Make no mistake; however, Scheffler is coming. He does his best work at big-time events with loaded fields, evidenced best by his course record 59 at TPC Boston during the 2020 Northern Trust.
Scheffler is already one of the game’s premier ball-strikers, and his irons have been spot on of late, ranking 10th in this field in SG: Approach over his past 12 rounds. We know he can score like it’s nobody’s business, and I really like him to replicate his T-7 performance at this event from a year ago. Being that many of the game’s elites are here, we can get the Texas Longhorn at a discounted price as well.
Louis Oothuizen ($8,800 DraftKings)
One of the sickest stats you will see this week came courtesy of Justin Ray, who pointed out that Louis Oosthuizen, in his first start of the year worldwide since 2009 (13 starts), has posted FOUR wins and NINE top-10s.
This week will be Oosthuizen’s 2022 debut. Do I really need to say more?
Fine, in two career starts in Scottsdale, the South African has gone T-11, T-3. Prior to his WD at the RSM, Oosthuizen was having an incredible season, posting six top-10 finishes, including a pair of runner-ups at the U.S Open and PGA Championship. He followed that up with a ho-hum T-3 at the British Open as well. Surely the rest has done him some good, and he’ll be ready to get after it this week at a track he’s fond of. Sign me up at just $8,800.
Value Plays
Harris English ($8,000 DraftKings)
It wasn’t so long ago English was absolutely tearing up the PGA TOUR. He won the Traveler’s on the heels of a T-3 at the U.S Open and then followed that up with a T-4 at the St. Jude. He posted some decent finishes in the Fed-Ex Cup Playoffs and even made the TOUR Championship. After that things sort of fell apart.
We haven’t seen English since the Sony Open over a month ago, where he made the cut and tied for 55th. Despite his recent subpar ball-striking, his putter has remained elite as he ranks third in this field in SG: Putting over his past four rounds and 14th over his past 48 rounds. Additionally, he sits 19th in total strokes gained over his past 48 as well. The Georgia Bulldog has posted four top-20’s at this event since 2012, so if he sneaks through the cut, he has immense upside for just $8,000.
Brian Harman ($7,300 DraftKings)
Harman has missed just one cut in eight starts at this event dating back to 2013. That’s incredibly steady for a guy that costs just $7,300 on DraftKings this week. Last week he missed the weekend due to a woeful putting performance, which we know is Harman’s best trait. So we’ll chalk that up as an anomaly. His irons have looked great of late, gaining over 1.4 strokes on approach in three of his past four rounds. If that trend continues this week, he will for sure make the weekend, which is all we’re looking for at his salary.
Mito Pereira ($7,000 DraftKings)
Pereira is already one of the game’s elite ball-strikers despite making just 15 career PGA TOUR starts. He sits 11th in SG: Ball-Striking across his past 36 rounds in this field. As we know, this is one of the strongest non-major fields we will see all season, making that stat even more impressive. The Chilean earned his TOUR Card after winning three times on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, something only 11 other guys have done in the history of the sport.
He missed the cut last week at Pebble, but this event should suit him much better as it’s a ball-strikers paradise. At just $7,000 on DraftKings, he makes it easy to fit the Jon Rahm’s of the world onto your lineups. Any way you put it, he is simply too cheap for his talent level.
