The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR begins its yearly Florida swing this week as PGA National hosts the Honda Classic. The course is a par-70 measuring at 7,125-yard yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Billy Horschel ($9,600 DraftKings)
It was between Billy Ho and Shane Lowry here, and I gave the nod to the Florida boy due to his recent form. Horschel is coming off a T-6 two weeks back at the Waste Management on the heels of a T-11 at Torrey Pines, so his game is in a great place right now. He hasn’t finished worse than T-33 in any of his five starts dating back to the Mayakoba in November.
Horschel finally found his irons back in Phoenix, gaining strokes on approach in three of four rounds. He actually gained 2.93 strokes during his final round, which was the most he’s gained in a single round with his irons since the 2021 PGA Championship last May.
Every other part of Horschel’s game is clicking on all cylinders, as he ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained over his past 12 rounds. He’s got a pair of top eight finishes to his name at PGA National as well, just to put the cherry on top.
Full disclosure: I really like Shane Lowry ($9,400) quite a bit as well in this spot, but if only playing one I do prefer Horschel for $200 more. Both are very strong cash plays, however, and I don’t see a need to go above them this week.
Mito Pereira ($8,900 DraftKings)
Pereira seems to be the darling of the week in the golf betting and DFS streets. He’s coming off a really impressive showing at Riviera, closing with a final round 70 en route to a T-15. He gained 1.95 strokes on approach on Sunday, setting him up for a good week at PGA National, where precise ball striking will be of utmost importance.
It’s his first ever appearance at the Honda, however, his elite iron play should help him evade some of the water hazards, and if he gets a few putts to drop on these Bermuda greens (his favorite surface), he should easily pay off this price tag.
Brian Harman ($8,700 DraftKings)
Harman is a savvy veteran who I trust implicitly to get through the cut in this spot. He’s played PGA National nine times since 2012, making the weekend in six of those trips, including a pair of top-12 finishes in that stretch. This field is extremely weak which is why we see Harman priced at $8,700, however, with the myriad of water hazards littered throughout the course simply navigating this minefield and escaping with par on most holes is all we’re looking for from our guys.
I like the Georgia Bulldog to do just that this week and I will pay slightly above sticker price to lock in some much needed safety in this spot.
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,500 DraftKings)
Another veteran I trust to make the weekend is Jhonny Vegas.
The big Venezuelan has played this event nine times in the past 10 years, making all but one cut while posting three top-16 finishes in the process. Outside of a hiccup at the AMEX, Vegas has been incredibly consistent, especially with his ball-striking. He ranks ninth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, sixth Off-the-Tee, and 13th on approach all over his past 36 rounds.
He is also a much better putter on Bermuda greens, averaging .22 strokes per round more compared to other putting surfaces. His $8.5K tag this week on DraftKings is more than reasonable and he’s a great cash play.
Mackenzie Hughes ($8,300 DraftKings)
There’s something about Mac Hughes that I really trust on tougher tracks. It’s most likely because his short game is incredible and helps him escape trouble even when his ball-striking is off. The good news is, we are catching the Canadian at a good time, as he’s in the midst of a really strong stretch with his ball-striking, ranking 27th in this field in SG:BS (Approach + Off-the-Tee) across his past 12 rounds.
In addition and to no one’s surprise, he sits ninth in SG: Putting and seventh in SG: Short-Game during the same time frame. Hughes will be making his sixth trip to PGA National, having made the cut in four of his previous five, while posting a runner up finish in 2020 and a T-36 last year. His price is on the cheaper side considering his talent level and course history, making him an elite cash game play.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000 DraftKings)
Bez missed the cut for us last week, something he rarely does. However, we are back on a shorter course this week at another difficult track, and I like the South African to get back on the right path here. Long term, Bezuidenhout is one of the better players in this field, sitting 11th in total strokes gained over his past 48 rounds.
His iron play has really taken a step forward this year and he is the best Bermuda putter in this field, setting him up nicely to go well this week. Do not be scared off by last week’s hiccup and let’s hop right back on the train here at a great price.
Value Plays
Taylor Moore ($7,900 DraftKings)
Moore is someone I am extremely bullish on moving forward. Despite being 28 years old, he tore up the Korn Ferry Tour last year and earned his PGA TOUR card in the process. In nine starts in the big leagues, he’s already posted five top-25 finishes, a seriously impressive feat. Going T-21, T-16 at Pebble Beach and Riviera in back to back weeks is no joke and this kid needs to be taken seriously.
Thankfully for us, DraftKings does not seem to be privy to this information, as they made him only $7,900 this week in a really subpar field. Moore’s approach play still needs some refinement, but he’s great both off-the-tee and with his short game, sitting 14th and 15th respectively in this field in those departments across his past 24 rounds. I like Moore to make the weekend in this spot, which is more than enough at his tag.
KH Lee ($7,700 DraftKings)
Lee has been a paragon of consistency, making 10 of his past 12 cuts dating all the way back to last year’s Travelers Championship. He’s coming off a strong T-26 last week at Genesis and boasts some pretty strong history at PGA National, making two of his three cuts with a T-7 in 2019.
His approach play has been a bit of a concern of late, but he’s been strong in all other facets of his game, ranking 24th in this field in total strokes gained over his past 36 rounds. With not a ton to like in the $7K range on DraftKings this week, locking in a seemingly safe option in Lee makes a whole lot of sense.
Mark Hubbard ($6,900 DraftKings)
Hubbard is my favorite punt play of the week and if you need to drop down this low in cash I don’t have an issue with it. He’s too cheap for his talent level in this trash field, ranking 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 16th on approach, 39th in putting and ninth in total strokes gained all over his previous 36 rounds. Somebody with those numbers should not cost $6,900.
Hubbard made the cut at PGA National in each of his past two trips, while posting a T-11 here in 2020. He’s already posted three top-25 finishes on the young season and is coming off a T-6 last week on the Korn Ferry Tour. He is a solid bet to make the weekend which is the only thing that matters at this price.
