The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Mississippi this week as the Country Club of Jackson hosts the Sanderson Farm’s Championship. The course is a par-72 that measures at 7,421 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Corey Conners ($10,100 DraftKings)
Conners gets the nod for me this week over Burns, Zalatoris, and Sergio as I get to save a bit of salary but lose nothing in the upside department. When deciding to roster Conners, the first thing I look for is whether or not we have Bermuda greens in play for the week. Thankfully we can check off that box, as the Canadian’s splits are night and day compared to other putting surfaces.
Conners finished runner up here in 2018 and tied for 17th a year ago, so he’s clearly comfortable with the layout. Conners is one of the 10 or 15 best ball-strikers on the planet and ranks No. 1 in that department across his past 48 rounds in this field. So, it’s also no surprise he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 75 weeks in our models.
Despite being the fifth highest-priced golfer on the week, I believe he’s the class of this field and will undoubtedly be in contention come Sunday. I’ll be locking him into our Lineup Builder since his field-best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) leads the field.
LT Adj Rd Score has one of the highest correlations to fantasy points, per our PGA Correlation Dashboard.
Cameron Tringale ($9,400 DraftKings)
Tringale has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR for the better part of a year now. He’s made 20 of his past 26 cuts and has four top-10s on the year. He’s been in position a few times to take home his first career victory, and there’s a distinct possibility that could come this week. The California native has made all four cuts at this event in his career and is playing the best golf of his life at the moment.
He’s coming off a T-22 at the Fortinet and ranks fourth in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds in this field. If you are playing cash games this week and fading Tringale, you need to reevaluate your process, as his price, course history, price, and form all line up.
Aaron Wise ($8,300 DraftKings)
Wise has finished inside the top 25 in two of his past three trips to the Country Club of Jackson. Despite feeling like a volatile type player, he’s actually made nine of his last 10 cuts on TOUR and played extremely well at both of the FedEx Cup Playoff events. Wise’s long-term numbers look really strong, as he sits 19th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and 18th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds.
He’s gained close to a full stroke tee-to-green per round at this event in his young career and boasts a really palatable price on DraftKings this week at just $8,300. He makes for a really strong mid-range option in this field.
Value Plays
Taylor Pendrith ($7,800 DraftKings)
Pendrith is one of the few Korn Ferry Tour call-ups who I believe can be relied upon right now. The Canadian has played multiple TOUR events over the past calendar year, making the cut at all of them outside of the U.S Open. He finished T-13 at the Barracuda and T-11 at the Barbasol, both featuring similar fields to this week’s event.
He has the makings of a future star, ranking No.1 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee across his past 12 rounds in this field. He’s probably a few hundred too cheap in a field like this and is my favorite play in the $7,000 range on the week.
Chez Reavie ($7,700 DraftKings)
The veteran has had somewhat of a resurgence after starting last season off poorly. He’s now made nine of his last 11 cuts, including four top-25s in that span. He made his debut at the CC of Jackson last year and finished T-46, so he now has some familiarity with the course. He’s been one of the best ball-strikers in this field of late, ranking second in SG: Approach over his past eight rounds.
During the fall golf swing, DFS players often like to flock to the new shiny toys who come up from the Korn Ferry Tour, but there’s too much stability that comes from rostering the vets who’ve been around forever, especially when playing cash games. Reavie fits that mold for me this week, as he’s been playing great and is underpriced for his talent in this field.
Lock and load.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600 DraftKings)
Rodgers was playing some great golf of late, finishing T-6 at the Fortinet two weeks ago after a final round 67 shot him up the leaderboard. He ranks fifth in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee and 18th in total strokes gained over his past 36 rounds in this field. With this being a 7,400-yard course, his length will be a significant advantage this week. Rodgers has a pair of top 20s at this event in four trips, including three made cuts, and with the way he’s playing of late, there’s no reason to think he won’t post another. There’s major value here at just $7,600
Punt Plays
Adam Schenk ($6,700 DraftKings)
Schenk is basically an auto plug-and-play when he’s priced below $7,000. He’s made nine of his past 11 cuts, and there is no way he should priced below most of the guys in the $7,500 range. His rolling ball-striking numbers haven’t been great over the last six weeks or so, but he did gain in three of his four rounds at the Fortinet Championship and ranks 19th in this field in SG: Putting across his past 48 rounds.
Schenk has played this event four times, and he’s made the weekend in all four trips, including a T-7 in 2018. He’s a great punt when rounding out your cash game lineups.
