The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to La La Land this week as iconic Riviera Country Club hosts the Genesis Invitational. Riviera is a 7,322-yard, par 71 with poa grass greens. Being that it’s an invitational event, there will only be 120 golfers in the field this week as opposed to the usual 156.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Rory McIlroy ($9,700 DraftKings)
Rory’s price was the first thing that stuck out to me this week. He’s simply far too talented to be this cheap, even in this field. He’s likely getting a discount here because we have yet to see him play a PGA TOUR event in 2022. His past two starts came in Europe and he posted finishes of T-3 and T-12 respectively, so his game is clearly clicking right now.
This will be McIlroy’s sixth career start at Riviera, a track that’s been kind to him over the years. Taking out last year’s uncharacteristic missed cut, the Irishman has a pair of T-20’s with a T-4 and T-5 in four of his past five trips. McIlroy ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds and is one of the purest ball-strikers the game has ever seen. Starting your cash teams with the 20-time TOUR winner is certainly on the table.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300 DraftKings)
The reigning Master’s Champion has gotten himself up to No. 10 in the world after another top-10 finish last week at the Waste Management. Matsuyama is locked in right now, ranking sixth in this field in SG: Ball-Striking across his past 16 rounds, while gaining strokes on approach in 13 of those rounds.
Matsuyama has three career top 10s at Riviera as well. We’re getting a $1,100 discount on him this week due to the strength of the field, but he’s really done nothing to warrant that. He’s as rock-solid as they come and should undoubtedly post another strong finish this week.
Will Zalatoris ($8,800 DraftKings)
This one comes with a slight caveat, as Zalatoris was forced to withdraw from Pebble Beach after testing positive for COVID. He’s since had two weeks to recoup and should be good to go, but if we hear in an interview before tee-off that he’s been battling symptoms he will be a fade.
Assuming he’s a full go, he makes for a tough fade after the way he’s been striking the ball of late. He ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach over his past eight rounds. That aforementioned ball-striking led to a runner-up finish at the Farmers and a T-6 at the American Express the last two weeks for Willy Z. He finished T-15 here a year ago in his lone start, and his $8,800 price tag on DraftKings this week is very enticing.
Adam Scott ($8,200 DraftKings)
Scott circles this event on his calendar seemingly every year, as he’s posted a win and four additional top-11 finishes in eight starts since 2012. There’s nothing flashy about his game, he’s just a phenomenal ball-striker that knows how to make cuts. If DraftKings is going to gift us this price on him then we need to take full advantage, as I have a hard time envisioning the Aussie missing the weekend here.
He’s coming off a T-38 at the Waste Management — an event he never plays — and before that had some pretty strong finishes on the Euro Tour. Tough tracks where par is a good score are always spots where we should look to target Scott, as his poor putting won’t be a factor. He’s an incredibly safe play here.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,100 DraftKings)
Fitz has been rolling of late, coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach and the Waste Management. Known for his elite putting ability, it’s actually been his ball-striking carrying him of late, as he’s gained over 1.6 strokes on approach in four of his past five rounds. Fitz’s game is predicated around his off-the-tee play, so when he’s hitting his irons this well we need to take notice.
He’s played Riviera two times, finishing T-5 last year and T-30 in 2020. His price decreased by $600 despite his T-10 last week, which is a massive error on DraftKings part. Fitzpatrick was the first player I circled when I looked at pricing this week and he should be a cash game staple.
Value Plays
Joaquin Niemann ($7,800 DraftKings)
Anytime Niemann is priced in the $7k range we need to take notice, as he is far too good a ball-striker to be this cheap. In three starts at Genesis, he’s posted a missed cut sandwiched between a T-44 and T-43. Obviously, that’s nothing to write home about, but he put it all together at Torrey Pines (a comp course) a few weeks back, finishing sixth at the Farmers.
Niemann ranks sixth in this field SG: Ball-Striking over his past four rounds and he should keep that rolling this week at a track that demands precise tee-to-green play. There’s not really a ton more to say here. Niemann will be very popular this week but is chalk I do not mind eating whatsoever.
Paul Casey ($7,600 DraftKings)
This is an absurd price for one of the better ball-strikers on the planet. Over the past 48 rounds in this field — a field that features all of the world’s top-10 ranked players — Casey ranks No. 1 in SG: Approach, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and sixth in Total Strokes Gained.
He’ll be making his 2022 TOUR debut, which is the only reason I could think of as to why his price is this low. He’s coming off a T-12 his last start over in Europe a few weeks ago, so it appears his game is in a good place. In six starts at Riviera since 2015 Casey has never missed a cut and has a pair of top 25s. This one is a no-brainer, folks.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200 DraftKings)
We won’t spend too much time on this one. In cash I do not deem it necessary to drop below Paul Casey with all of the elite mid-range options we have this week, but Bez is a true cut-making machine. He’s missed just six cuts over his previous 51 starts worldwide. He knows how to get around a golf course.
The South African is normally carried by his elite short game and putter, however, it’s been his ball-striking carrying him of late, as he sits seventh in this field in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Ball-Striking both over his past 16 rounds. His price is way too cheap for a guy that plays four rounds nearly every time he tees it up. Bezuidenhout is a great salary this week.
