After a fantastic Ryder Cup, especially for Americans, we now get back to traditional stroke play on the PGA TOUR. Only defending champion Sergio Garcia will make the trek to Jackson, Mississippi, from Whistling Straits to this week’s tournament, but there are still some good names in the field for the second TOUR event of the new season.
It will be a full field this week as everyone looks to get into form for the fall swing, and many players look to establish themselves in the new season.
We have you covered across our platforms here at FantasyLabs and Action Network. Matt Vincenzi has the stats that matter for the Country Club of Jackson alongside some of the DFS picks that fit each of those metrics. Landon Silinsky has his favorite cash game plays to build a nice core, which can also be a helpful place to start for small-field GPPs.
I’ll also be referencing our tools here at FantasyLabs throughout the writeup, as we have great PGA Models, an excellent Lineup Builder, and ownership projections to find the best plays across the board.
Let’s get right into the plays.
Top-Tier Plays
Corey Conners ($10,100)
My favorite play appears to be a favorite of many others as Conners is projected for some high ownership, but we aren’t too worried about that in smaller-field GPPs. The fact is, he’s priced too low for this field, his skill set, and course history. The Canadian checks every box you could ask for this week, and it really just comes down to his putter as to if he can capture his second win on TOUR.
Conners leads the field in Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score). LT Adj Rd Score has one of the highest correlations to fantasy points, per our PGA Correlation Dashboard.
I’m in at what feels like a discount for a player that I definitely expect to be in the mix over the weekend.
Charley Hoffman ($9,000)
Charley is my favorite play this week at any price for DFS. While I took him as my top bet, he doesn’t exactly have a history of closing out wins. The good thing about DraftKings is that I don’t need Hoffman to win this weekend to pay off this price tag as a solid top-5 top finish will do just fine.
He is a great fit for this course and has shown it over the past two years, with a sixth-place finish in 2020. Hoffman has the scoring upside to pay off this price tag over four days, and that will make him a key play in smaller field lineups this week.
Mid-Tier Plays
Seamus Power ($8,800)
Power closed out last season on a great stretch of golf, capped by his first win on TOUR at the Barbosol. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up where he left off, and our projections agree with him ranking in the top 10 from that perspective.
He’s been one of the best players in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last six months and checks in as one of the best on approach from the key distances this week.
Aaron Wise ($8,300)
Wise is the perfect type of player for this event. He is great with his wedges, and his one TOUR win was at a birdie fest that will set up similar to his week ahead. The biggest question with Wise is always around his short game, but he seems to have found something on the greens with a long putter to end the season.
He also gained more than three strokes on the putting surfaces in this event last year, all of which has me excited to add him to the core this week at around the average price needed to fill a roster out. Our Strokes Gained Model agrees with him having the highest rating of players in this range.
This week, Wise has the upside to contend for a win, but I also like his safety for a made cut and a solid finish even if he doesn’t have everything going with his game.
Value Plays
Ryan Armour ($7,300)
When I look into plays for small-field GPPs, I am wanting safety down the board as much as upside. Ryan Armour provides plenty of both at a tournament he won not long ago and will come into the week with plenty of positive vibes.
Armour is also as steady as they come, peppering fairways and greens while looking to make enough putts to contend. He’s a player I feel comfortable penciling in for the weekend, with a real ceiling that can have him contending.
Henrik Norlander ($7,200)
My plan this week is to jam in two of my favorite plays up top alongside a mid-tier selection, then drop down lower to fill out my lineup. Plenty of players can fit an optimal lineup this week, including Henrik Norlander.
He has the ability to crush the ceiling of this price as he did at this event last year with his fourth-place finish. It did take more than seven strokes gained on the greens for him to come through, but outside of that, he is a great statistical fit for this course, and I’m going back to the well in expecting a nice performance from the Swede.
Sleepers
Nick Hardy ($6,900)
I have been beating the drum on Nick Hardy for a while now. Even as DraftKings starts to catch up by increasing his price, I am going right back to him. He is a true up-and-comer on TOUR with some of the steadiest results you’ll see in golf. Last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, Hardy made the cut in 34 of 41 starts and had 19 top-25 finishes, including 10 top-10s.
I don’t need to say much more than that, but I love that our Strokes Gained Model loves him this week as well, which has me locked in on his value this week in Jackson.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,600)
I’m a bit biased on NeSmith as the former Gamecock is a guy I love to root for, but he is also a great fit this week. He is from the southeast and shows it in his splits on bermuda grass. While he isn’t great on any surface, he certainly prefers the greens he will putt on this week in Mississippi, and the rest of the course suits him as well.
NeSmith is one that will pepper the flags with his wedges and knows how to go low and get himself in contention, as he did last year at the Waste Management. I really like the value I get on a player that I just need to make the cut, but that I know can really put up a ceiling to help win a GPP.
