The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and other industry metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Course
Detroit Golf Club hosts the Rocket Mortgage Classic which begs the question — how can a tournament be a classic in only its second year of existence?
Anywho, Detroit GC is a standard Par 72 track with four Par 5s — three of which surrendered a birdie-rate of over 40% in the tournament’s first edition last year. The other Par 5, a long 630-plus yard hole “only” gave up a 30% birdie-rate. The course is a classic Donald Ross design with tree-lined fairways (always wanted to type that) and Ross’ signature doglegs.
Last year, all the golfers inside the top-15 shot 15-under par or better and the course surrendered multiple rounds of 63, so it’s likely this year’s winner will need to go extremely low again.
Players will need four rounds of solid approach numbers, a ton of Greens In Regulation (GIR), a hot putter, and of course, will need to take advantage of the scoring opportunities on those Par 5 holes.
Key metrics: GIR, Long-term (LT) and Recent Adj Rd Scores (Adj Rd Scores), LT and Recent Birdies (Adjusted Bird Avg), Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP) , and Par 5 Scoring Average (P5 Avg).
DFS Breakdown for 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit GC.
Top-Model Plays
I used the key metrics mentioned above to quickly make a Fantasy Labs model and here are some if its top-rated players.
Not surprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700 DraftKings; $12,200 FanDuel) is the model’s top-rated player. DeChambeau’s currently massive 13.7% Odds to Win and 60% Odds to Top-10 are high atop the Labs model. DeChambeau’s 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score and his 78.7% Recent GIR both rank as best in the field among players with more than one start since the return of golf. And Bryson’s 1.569 SG; Tee to Green (T2G) ranks sixth in 2020 per the data provided by the PGA Tour. Bryson leads the Tour with seven top-10 finishes in 10 events this season.
Viktor Hovland ($10,000 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) finished 13th here last season and has scored at least 100 DraftKings points in each of the last two weeks. The Hov ranks seventh in LT Adj Rd Score (69.3), is tied for eighth in LT Adj Bird Avg (14.8), and his 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Avg is second to only Dechambeau among golfers have played all three tournaments the past three weeks.
Rory Sabbatini ($8,800 DrafKings, $9,900 FanDuel) has a 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score, an 18.5 Adj Bird Avg, and finished third here last season. His currently projected ownership of 13-16 percent is much lower than both DeChambeau and Hovland who are both projected around 20 percent.
Other Model Plays: Tyrell Hatton, Adam Hadwin, Tony Finau, Lucas Glover
Sleepers
Kyle Stanley ($7,100 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) was locked in last week, gaining 7.1 SG: T2G, with positive Strokes Gained Off the Tee, on Approach, and Around the Green on his way to a 24th place finish. Per usual, he struggled with the putter but if he can put up those kind of numbers again this week, he just may be hanging around on Sunday. Stanley’s 69.2 Recent Adj Rd Avg and 73.6 Recent GIR percentage are extremely solid for a guy projected to be owned at less than five percent and he finished 21st in this tournament last year.
Michael Thompson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) has scored a total 176 DraftKings points in his last two starts while being owned at less than one percent in each of those tournaments. Thompson’s 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks sixth among golfers with at least two starts the past three weeks, and his healthy 19.5 Adj Bird Avg ranks second in that same group.
Others: Kevin Kisner, Brain Harman, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler
Value Plays
Scott Stallings ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel) has made the cut in each oh two starts since the restart of golf and he looked especially sharp last week, pounding out an 84.7 GIR percentage with four rounds of 68 or lower on his way to a sixth-place finish and 104 DK points at The Travelers Championship. Stallings’ 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, 75.7 Recent GIR percentage, and 16.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg all rank inside the top-10 of this field among golfers with at least two starts the past three weeks.
Might as well keep firing on Mark Hubbard ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) who hasn’t let us down yet: three-straight made cuts and a 72.17 DK points average since the Charles Schwab Challenge. Hubbard’s 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Score Avg and 15.3 Adj Bird Avg look really strong at his price.
Tyler Duncan ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) has gained strokes on approach in each of the past three weeks and has finished 38th or better with at least 74.5 DK points in each of those tournaments.
Henrik Norlander ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) ranks eighth among golfers with at least three starts the past three weeks with his healthy 74.3 GIR percentage and he’s coming of four straight rounds of 68 at the Travelers Championship his last time out.
Others: HV3, Brian Stuard
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage and check out Joshua Perry’s Rocket Mortgage betting guide here!
