The PGA TOUR heads to Memphis this week as TPC Southwind hosts the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The course is a par 70 measuring at just over 7,200 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score usually settles somewhere around the 13-under range.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Brooks Koepka ($10,600 DraftKings)
Koepka stands out at the top of the board this week over everyone else. He’s not flying home from Tokyo like Morikawa, Schauffele, McIlroy or JT, and his game is not in the toilet at the moment like DJ. This leaves the decision basically between him and Jordan Spieth, and while Spieth has been great this year, Koepka’s history at this event gives him the edge.
Koepka has played TPC Southwind seven times and has a win, two runners up, a T-3 and a T-19 in five of those trips. Dating back to the end of February, the four-time Major champion has gone T-2, CUT, CUT, T-2, CUT, T-4, T-5, T-6. The good news is this week is a no-cut event so we will get motivated Brooks for four rounds. We know he gets up for the big-time events where the world’s best all congregate, and with his ball-striking on absolute fire of late (No.1 in this field over the past 16 rounds) he is an absolute no brainer in cash.
Daniel Berger ($9,200 DraftKings)
Death, taxes and play Daniel Berger at TPC Southwind. I can easily just end the writeup here, but I will give a little bit of context. Berger won this event in both 2016 and 2017 and then finished T-2 here last year behind JT. He absolutely loves Bermuda greens, being a Florida boy, and is coming off two top-10s at both the U.S and British Open.
His long-term rolling numbers look great, ranking 10th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and ninth in total strokes gained over his past 48 rounds. I figured his elite course history would bump up his price to the upper $9K range, but that’s not the case. Let’s take advantage of DraftKing’s pricing error and lock him into our lineups.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,800 DraftKings)
The two things I look for when deciding whether or not to play Matty Fitz are: Is the course a par-70, and are the greens Bermuda grass? If both of these boxes get checked, he’s a virtual lock to make my cash game roster. He’s obviously not the longest hitter on TOUR, so on courses that deemphasize distance I love looking his way.
He’s also the best Bermuda putter in this field by a wide margin, gaining .91 strokes per round on this surface. For context, the next closest guy is Sam Burns who gains .67 strokes per round. In two starts at TPC Southwind Fitz has gone T-6 and T-4. Need I say more? He’s right there with Berger for me as my favorite play on the board.
Value Plays
Harris English ($7,600 DraftKings)
English is having another magical season and is criminally underpriced this week for both his body of work and talent level. He finished T-3 at the U.S Open and won the Traveler’s before a respectable T-46 at the British. He’s posted seven top-10’s on the year in 21 starts while missing just four cuts. He actually won this event back in 2013 and posted an additional T-10 in 2017, back when he wasn’t nearly the golfer he is now.
English ranks 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in total strokes gained over his past 16 rounds in this field. For some reason he only costs just $7,600 despite being the No. 14 ranked golfer in the world right now. He’s a really tough fade this week.
Brian Harman ($7,500 DraftKings)
Harman has now finished inside the top 20 in eight of his past 10 starts and is having the best season of his career at age 34. He will not blow you away with his tee-to-green game, but on shorter par-70 courses he loses nothing to the bombers. It’s his elite short game that keeps him in contention every week, ranking No. 1 in that department over his past 24 rounds in this field. He also averages the sixth most strokes putting per round on Bermuda grass in this field as well. At just $7,500 this week he provides quite a bit of safety when rounding out your lineups.
Billy Horschel ($7,100 DraftKings)
Billy Ho is strictly a course history play this week as his recent form has been a little suspect. In seven starts at TPC Southwind since 2013 he’s gone T-10, T-6, T-8, T-4, T-51, T-9, T-25. Being from Florida he’s pretty adept at par-70 Bermuda tracks, which is apparent in his results here. Prior to the Memorial he had been playing some pretty solid golf, so hopefully returning to a track that he loves will get him going again. We get four rounds of golf for just $7,100, making this risk an extremely negligible one with massive upside.
Punt Plays
Kevin Kisner ($6,800 DraftKings)
Kisner is never a sexy play, but at shorter tracks he can compete with the big boys as he’s shown countless times in the past. He’s posted a pair of top-27 finishes here the last two years and is coming in with some decent form, finishing T-8 and T-5 at the Rocket Mortgage and Traveler’s respectively. He’s the third ranked putter in this field over his past 48 rounds and he simply stays out of trouble he can easily give us a top-20 this week for a bargain bin price
