The PGA TOUR heads to North Carolina this week as Sedgefield Country Club hosts the Wyndham Championship. The course is a par-70 measuring at just over 7,100 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score usually settles around the 21-under range, so we will need to target birdie makers this week.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Webb Simpson ($10,600 DraftKings)
This is the biggest lock of the week and it’s not really close.
Simpson is the betting favorite in most sportsbooks but somehow the third-highest-priced golfer on DraftKings. Let’s start with his immaculate history at Sedgefield. He won this event back in 2011 and since 2014 has gone T-5, T-6, T72, 3rd, T-2, 2nd, T-2. You’d be hard pressed to find a golfer with better history at any course than Simpson has at Sedgefield.
It certainly makes sense when you think about it, as he was born in Raleigh, went to college at Wake Forest and currently resides in Charlotte. Simpson loves this tournament so much he actually named his third child Wyndham. He played exceptional for two rounds last week in Memphis which included a 64 on Sunday. He’s primed for another big performance this week and is in fade at your own risk territory this week in all contest formats.
Seamus Power ($8,500 DraftKings)
Power has been playing the best golf of his career of late. He’s coming off his first career PGA TOUR victory at the Barbasol a few weeks back and before that posted a pair of T-8’s at the Rocket Mortgage and John Deere. He’s yet to miss a cut since coming back up off the Korn Ferry Tour in mid May and has made three of four cuts at Sedgefield in his career.
The Irishman ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and No. 1 in total strokes gained over his past 16 rounds. You could actually make the argument he’s about $1,000 cheap in this field, so at $8,500 we should certainly look to take advantage of DraftKings’ pricing error and roster him in cash games this week.
Charl Schwartzel ($8,100 DraftKings)
I’m not sure what Schwartzel has to do to have his price rise on DraftKings, but as long as they keep suppressing it we will keep firing him up with confidence. He’s now posted seven top-26 finishes across his past nine events played, which includes a T-2 his last time out at the 3M Open.
Schwartzel has played this event just three times since 2012, posting a T-14, T-3 and a missed cut in that stretch. The South African ranks ninth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in total strokes gained over his past 24 rounds. He’s 45/1 on DK sports book yet there’s 22 priced higher than him. He’s the epitome of a strong cash game play.
Value Plays
Brandt Snedeker ($7,900 DraftKings)
Snedeker will always be in play at events that feature short par-70 courses, especially ones that turn into putting contests like what we should have this week. He won this event back in 2018 and has two additional top-five finishes as well since 2011. Sneds has made eight of his past 10 cuts and has really strong long term rolling stats, ranking 13th in SG: Putting and 16th in total strokes gained over his past 36 rounds in this field.
He will not be penalized for his lack of distance off the tee this week, and we know he can get as hot as anyone on TOUR with the putter, so at $7,900 he makes a ton of sense as a value option.
Hank Lebioda ($7,600 DraftKings)
Lebioda was in the midst of the best stretch of golf in his career before withdrawing at the 3M to deal with a family matter. Prior to that he had gone T-8, T-4, T-5 at the JDC, Rocket Mortgage and Travelers. The rolling numbers reflect his strong play as well, as he sits second in this field in total strokes gained and No. 1 in SG: Putting over his past 16 rounds.
He’s made two starts at Sedgefield in his career, making the cut both times with a T-42 last year. The withdrawal at the 3M certainly kept his price down, which seems to be the theme of the week. I see no reason to deviate from Hammerin’ Hank here after his recent stretch of stellar play.
Harold Varner III ($7,500 DraftKings)
It’s never that exciting to roster HV3, but he’s got strong history at this event, making four of five cuts with a pair of top-10 finishes. Plenty of people in this industry scoff at course history, but believe it or not these guys are human beings, not robots, and have affinities for certain tracks that simply cannot be quantified in data. Case in point, Billy Horschel last week.
Getting back on track here, Varner has a T-15 and T-11 in both of his last non British Open starts. He played superbly at the Barracuda and gained 1.3 or more strokes tee-to-green at the JDC in three of his four rounds. He has a ton of upside for someone priced at $7,500 and I think it’s more than reasonable to expect another made cut this week.
Punt Plays
Ryan Armour ($7,000 DraftKings)
I can promise you this will be the first and last time Ryan Armour is mentioned in this column for the remainder of the year. However, he certainly has a keen eye for Sedgefield, posting four consecutive top-25’s here since 2017 with a T-8 and T-4 in that stretch. He missed the cut at the Barracuda, but before that finished T-6 and T-5 at the 3M and Barbasol.
Armour is not long off the tee, which will not hurt him this week and is one of the better putters in this field, ranking 17th in that department over his past 48 rounds. You can certainly do a lot worse for just $7,000 when rounding out your cash game rosters this week.
Pictured above: Webb Simpson
Credit: Tracy Wilcox/PGA TOUR via Getty Images
