The PGA TOUR heads to South Carolina this week as Harbour Town Golf Links hosts the RBC Heritage. The course is a short par-71 measuring at 7,099 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score here over the years usually settles around the 12-under range.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest type.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Patrick Cantlay ($10,900 DraftKings)
Cantlay was a massive bust for us last week, something I truly did not see coming. He had strong history at Augusta going in, and prior to THE PLAYERS was playing exceptionally well since the calendar flipped to 2021. Sometimes golf simply makes no sense. We’ll move forward to this week now, however, as it’s imperative we have a short memory in this game.
With Dustin Johnson dealing with his own struggles, I see no reason to pay $11,600 for him this week. We will instead begin with Cantlay, who has some of the best course history in this field, finishing T-3, T-7, T-3 in three starts at Harbour Town since 2016. He ranks No. 2 in this field in total strokes gained across his past 12 rounds, while ranking third in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at Harbour Town. It’s clear he hits it quite well here. I like Webb Simpson the most in this range, but pairing the two this week is a very viable strategy.
Webb Simpson ($10,700 DraftKings)
Simpson is the best play on the board in my opinion this week. He’s the odds-on favorite among most books and yet is only the third-highest priced golfer, which presents us with some strong value. He’s the defending champion at this event, but also has five additional top-16 finishes here, including two top-fives in that span.
Harbour Town is a second shot course and usually rewards good putters. Simpson is coming off a very strong showing at The Masters where he gained 3.36 strokes on approach and 4.79 strokes with his flat stick, so he’s coming in hot. When you combine his history, rolling numbers and the price discount, he checks a lot of boxes and makes for one of the best cash plays on the board.
Daniel Berger ($10,000 DraftKings)
Berger was another chalk bomb last week at Augusta, missing the cut in pretty ugly fashion. Like Cantlay, though, we will look ahead to this week, as the Florida native has pretty good history at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for third here last season and was 33rd the year prior. We like to target Berger on shorter tracks with Bermuda greens and that’s exactly what we have this week.
The last time he missed a cut was at the Waste Management back in February, and he then went on to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am a week later, so hopefully history will repeat itself this week. Berger’s long-term rolling numbers are among the best in this field as he ranks seventh in SG: Ball-Striking, and No. 4 in total strokes gained over his past 24 rounds. You could pair Berger with either Cantlay or Simpson or even start lineups with him if you prefer a more balanced build.
Value Plays
Kevin Streelman ($7,300 DraftKings)
Streelman is too cheap for the way he’s been playing and for the course history he has here at Harbour Town. He’s made seven of eight cuts since 2011 here and has three top-10s in that stretch. His ball-striking numbers have been very strong of late, while it’s been his short game that’s let him down.
Streelman ranks 19th in SG: Approach and 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green both over his past 24 rounds in this field. He also putts well here as he gains .102 strokes with the flat stick per round for his career at the RBC Heritage
Lucas Glover ($7,100 DraftKings)
Glover is one of my favorite value plays on the board this week, as he’s been pretty consistent on the season, making 11 of his 16 cuts. He’s coming off back-to-back strong finishes at the Honda and Valero, finishing 19th and fourth respectively. His course history at this event is good as well, making five of his past six cuts while finishing no worse than 33rd in that span.
Glover ranks No. 2 in this field in total strokes gained over his past eight rounds and even more recently ranks No. 2 in SG: Ball-Striking over his previous four rounds. He’s way too cheap for how he’s been playing, and when you factor in his course history he makes for a no-brainer cash game play.
Adam Hadwin ($7,100 DraftKings)
Hadwin is simply a professional in every sense of the word. He’s not the best ball-striker in the world, but handles himself adequately enough in that department, while compensating with his fantastic short game. He’s now finished inside the top-29 in five of his past seven events, including a T-8 at the Honda.
The Canadian has missed just one cut at Harbour Town in his five trips, and that was in his debut back in 2015. He’s since gone 5/5 with a pair of top-30s. Hadwin ranks 29th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 12 rounds, but also ranks No. 3 in SG: Short-Game (Around the Green + Putting) and 12th in total strokes gained in that same time frame.
Other Targets
Kevin Na ($8,100 DraftKings)
Na is arguably the best play in the $8K range this week on DraftKings. He has four top-10 finishes in seven career starts at this event and is coming off a strong 12th-place finish at Augusta last week. His rolling numbers do not look great, but that’s misleading because he lost over six strokes tee-to-green in his lone round at THE PLAYERS before withdrawing.
Outside of that he’s been hitting it fine, even ranking No.1 in this field in SG: Around-the-Green over his past 12 rounds. Na fits great in balanced builds or as the second golfer to pair with a $10K guy.
Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Pictured: Webb Simpson
