The PGA TOUR stays in Florida this week as PGA National Golf Club’s champion’s course hosts The Honda Classic. The course is a par-70 measuring just over 7,100 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score here is usually lower than other events due to difficulty of the course. We usually do not see scores here reaching 10-under par too often.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest type.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Sungjae Im ($11,000 DraftKings)
We will start with the defending champion this week. I do not intend to get cute in a weak field like this. There really are not too many sure things, so we’ll take the safety even at this elevated price with Im. He’s been playing some really good golf of late, especially last week at THE PLAYERS, where he tied for 18th. Had it not been for a silly third-round 77, he would have easily slid into the top-10 in what was likely the strongest field we’ll see all year.
Im has getting it done both off the tee and with his flat stick of late, ranking No. 1 in this field in both SG: OTT and SG: Putting across his past 12 rounds in this field. It’s been his approach and around-the-green play that’s been letting him down (two of his usual strengths,) so we will hope that a return to PGA National will cure some of those woes. You can make the argument that he’s the best play in this field even at his elevated price.
Daniel Berger ($10,800 DraftKings)
Another shocker here, as Berger has simply been too consistent to ignore of late. The Florida native has made 22 of his past 24 cuts dating back to the 2019 ZOZO. Since the TOUR restart last June, he’s posted two wins and seven top-10s, elevating himself to the 15th-ranked player in the world.
Berger has been especially locked in of late, ranking No. 1 in this field in total strokes gained across his past 12 rounds. That’s largely in part to his elite ball striking, as he also ranks No. 3 in SG: Off-the-tee and 18th in SG: Approach in the same time frame. I cannot find one single reason to fade him this week and he may be an even stronger play than Im in this meager field. He’s coming off a fourth-place finish here last year and can be fired up with confidence in all formats this week.
Russell Henley ($9,800 DraftKings)
If you prefer a more balanced approach, Henley makes for one of the better options in the $9,000 range on DraftKings this week. He boasts some of the best course history in this field, posting two top 20s, a T-8 and win in his eight starts. He’s also missed only one cut here in that time frame, making him one of the more consistent options in a week with so much uncertainty.
He ranks 30th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th on approach and 18th in total strokes gained all over his past 16 rounds in this field. He also putts better on Bermuda, averaging .28 strokes fewer per round compared to other surfaces. Henley is a rock solid option even at a price we’re not accustomed to seeing him at.
Value Plays
JT Poston ($7,900 DraftKings)
One of the best Bermuda putters in this field, Poston has yet to miss a cut at PGA National in his three trips, finishing T35, T-36 and T-27 respectively since 2017. There’s obviously something about this course that catches his eye, and we do not have to pay top dollar for it. Poston has also picked it up of late with his ball striking, ranking 36th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and an especially encouraging 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, both over his past four rounds.
He’s coming off a T-22 in a loaded PLAYERS field and has quietly made four of his past five cuts overall with two top-20s in that span. He’s the third-ranked putter in this field over his past 24 rounds and I fully trust him to make another cut this week at a very reasonable price tag.
K.H Lee ($7,500 DraftKings)
It’s hard to envision Lee as being a safe play, but he’s made two starts at PGA National and has a T-38 and T-7 to his name, so it seems he feels comfortable here. He put on a ball-striking clinic at the PLAYERS, gaining over 1.5 strokes off-the-tee in two of his four rounds.
Lee actually ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Off-the-tee and SG: Ball-Striking over his past four rounds and seems to play well at courses he has history at. There isn’t a ton that stands out in the $7K range this week, so I’ll take my chances Lee posts another strong performance.
Adam Long ($7,100 DraftKings)
It’s never exciting to roster Adam Long, however, he’s coming off strong T-22 at the PLAYERS and ranks 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green, 22nd in SG: Putting and seventh in total strokes gained, all over his past four rounds. I realize four rounds is a small sample size, but he had a T-27 here last year and despite some recent missed cuts, he seems to be missing right on or around the number, so we’ll chalk that up to bad variance. He’s shown to have serious upside in the past and at just $7,100, he fits in any build.
Other Targets
Matt Wallace ($8,500 DraftKings)
It seems Wallace does some of his best work on tough Florida courses. We know about his strong history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he also boasts a T-20 at this event. He’s been great with his irons of late, ranking 12th in this field in SG: Approach across his past 16 rounds. I like to target Wallace at tougher tracks when par is a good score and this week fits that bill. He’s not cheap by any means, but everyone in this field is priced about $1,000 higher than they should be. Wallace should make the cut and presents a strong amount of upside beyond that.
Pictured: Sungjae Im
Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
