The PGA TOUR heads back to Cali this week as historic Pebble Beach Golf Links (and Spyglass Hill Golf Course) hosts the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The courses are both short par-72s measuring at just over 7,000 yards with poa annua grass greens. The winning score usually settles around the 17-to-19-under range.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate; however, these players are often great options in any contest type.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column each week, which highlights golfers to buy and fade following each round of play at that week’s PGA TOUR event, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Dustin Johnson ($12,000 DraftKings)
Things will be pretty straightforward from me this week. The field is surprisingly weaker than I expected due to the fact they removed the Pro-Am portion of the event. You’d think more stars would’ve showed up to Pebble.
Having said that, I find it really hard to start a cash game team without two of my three core plays this week. We’ll start with the No. 1 player in the world who’s coming off another win in Saudi Arabia this past week.
DJ is not cheap, sitting at $12,00 on DraftKings, but he’s a ridiculously short +375 at certain sportsbooks, which we do not see very often.
He’s the best player in this field by a mile and has five top-five finishes at Pebble in his last 10 appearances here. He also ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 12, 16, 24, 36 and 48 rounds (lol). No one playing this week has the win equity of Johnson, and I cannot fathom starting a cash-game roster without him.
Patrick Cantlay ($11,300 DraftKings)
After DJ and Cantlay, there is a major drop off in talent this week. You would have to do some serious dumpster diving, however, it is possible to fit both of them onto a roster.
Cantlay ranks No. 1 in this field in both SG: Putting and total strokes gained across his past 12 rounds. He also ranks eighth tee-to-green in the same time frame, so he’s clicking on all cylinders at the moment.
He just barely got edged out by Si Woo Kim at the American Express and finished in second place after a ridiculous final-round 61 vaulted him up the leaderboard. Finishing 11th at Pebble last year and T-9 in 2013, Cantlay is poised for another strong showing in this weak field and should be treated as a cash game staple.
Paul Casey ($10,400 DraftKings)
I understand if you do not want to stack both DJ and Cantlay on one team, so it’s certainly viable to drop down to Casey, who has been playing some great golf of late in his own right. Since the Masters in November, Casey’s played three times, finishing eighth at the American Express before winning the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. He rounded out that stretch with a T-12 last week in Saudi.
Casey’s history at Pebble is very strong, posting two top-10s in two of his past three years including a runner-up finish in 2019. Over his past 16 rounds, Casey ranks 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th in SG: Approach in this field.
He’s an extremely safe option even at his elevated price tag. I realize I wrote up the three highest-priced players in the field this week, however, as I previously stated, this field is rather dull and I’m trying to stack as much win equity as I can.
Value Plays
Scott Stallings ($7,500 DraftKings)
Since we’re going top heavy this week, the value guys will look a little ugly. Stallings — for all his volatility — at least has a good track record at Pebble, finishing 14th or better in three of his past four years, including a solo third in 2019. He’s coming off a strong week at the Waste Management Open, where he finished 36th, which could’ve been better if not for a final-round 72. Stallings ranks 20th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past four rounds, which is good enough for me to throw him on a cash game roster with his history here.
Scott Piercy ($7,100 DraftKings)
Piercy is coming off back-to-back missed cuts, but he’s too cheap in this field at just $7,100 on DraftKings. In his last recorded round at the Amex he gained 1.18 strokes tee-to-green and 1.6 strokes on approach, so hopefully he could build on that at a course he knows pretty well.
Piercy’s missed one cut here in five appearances and has three straight top-20s in the process. He fits pretty easily in any roster build and works especially well if starting with two of DJ/Cantlay/Casey.
Adam Schenk ($6,500 DraftKings)
Schenk is usually a lock-and-load play for me when he’s this cheap. He’s a better golfer than the majority of players priced above him and (up until recently) makes a ton of cuts.
Schenk’s long-term form is really strong, as he ranks 35th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 36 rounds. He’s also made each of his last two cuts at Pebble, finishing 45th and 50th. You can do a lot worse for just $6,500 on DraftKings.
Other Targets
Kevin Streelman ($8,900 DraftKings)
If you rather not go full stars and scrubs, Streelman makes for a strong second golfer in all formats. He boasts some of the best course history in the field, posting four top-10s in his last nine trips to Pebble, including a solo second last year.
Streelman’s rolling numbers are also lining up, as he sits 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 13th in SG: Approach across his past 16 rounds in this field. Coming off a T-22 last week at the WMPO, the savvy vet will look to add another top-10 to his Pebble Beach resume and is very reasonably priced at just $8,900 on DraftKings.
Pictured above: Dustin Johnson
Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
