The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA TOUR heads to Atlanta this week as the 2020-21 season wraps up with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
The course is a par-70 measuring just over 7,340 yards with Bermuda grass greens. This will be a 30-man, no-cut event with the FedEx Cup points leaders all starting with a scoring advantage.
Patrick Cantlay is in first place after last week’s victory at the BMW, so he will start the tournament at 10-under par, followed by Tony Finau at eight-under and so on and so forth until we get to the bottom five who will all begin at even par. Overall, the course usually plays on the tougher side so expect the winning score to settle in the 11-under range.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
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There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Jon Rahm ($13,000 DraftKings)
Rahm faded over the weekend at the BMW, but I am not reading too much into that, as birdie-fests usually are not his forte. He much prefers the grind it out style tracks where making par is often a good score. East Lake should play much more difficult than Caves Valley did last week.
Rahm is coming off a T-4 at this event last year, and also has an additional T-7 back in 2017, but he’s never been more in control of his game as he is right now. He will start six-under and four behind Patrick Cantlay, yet most sports books still have him as the betting favorite.
Four strokes is not a ton of ground to make up over the span of four days, and Cantlay’s track record is not great at East Lake. With all the value we have at the bottom of the board, it makes it pretty easy to fit the No.1 player in the world into our cash lineups this week.
Justin Thomas ($11,000 DraftKings)
JT absolutely loves East Lake, having finished no worse than T-7 in five trips to the TOUR Championship since 2016. He’s posted a pair of runner ups and a T-3 in that stretch as well, and is coming off another really strong ball-striking week at the BMW. He gained 2.25 strokes on approach alone on Sunday, which is something we love to see as it’s usually a harbinger of things to come for Thomas.
As usual his putting was atrocious last week, however, he’s basically been a neutral putter at this event in his career, so if he can continue hitting his irons the way he did last week, he should easily contend. He’ll start four-under par for the week and I expect him to charge up the leader board over the weekend. It feels like he’s really close to putting it all together.
Xander Schauffele ($8,900 DraftKings)
Much like JT, Schauffele absolutely loves the southern cooking in Atlanta, as he’s posted a win and a pair of runner up finishes in four career trips to East Lake. Among guys who have played this course more than once, Schauffele leads the field in average strokes gained per round, gaining a healthy 2.11 strokes. That’s .5 strokes per round better than the next closest guy (Rory McIlroy.)
We are paying a little extra for the X Man’s course history, as he’s priced significantly higher than most of the other guys who are starting at two-under par. Last year despite finishing T-2 to DJ, he posted the lowest 72-hole score, meaning he would’ve won if this were a normal stroke play event. Regardless, I think we can reasonably expect him to top-10 this week, which should be enough to pay off his price tag.
Value Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($6,800 DraftKings)
Scheffler made his debut at East Lake last year with a very impressive T-6. He averaged over 2.5 strokes gained tee-to-green per round on the field last year. Obviously it’s just a one year sample, but the leader in that department in this field is Sergio Garcia, who’s averaged 1.53 strokes gained tee-to-green per round in his career at East Lake. That’s a pretty hefty difference.
Scheffler’s putting is light year’s better on bermuda than other surfaces, so hopefully the switch back will propel him to a nice finish this week. His irons were red hot over the weekend at the BMW, gaining 3.1 and 1.2 strokes respectively on approach on Saturday and Sunday. He will start at one-under this week, but should make a ton of birdies and provide us with solid value at just $6,800 on DraftKings.
Sergio Garcia ($5,400 DraftKings)
Garcia, as mentioned above hits the ball really well at East Lake and is coming off a really strong ball-striking week, gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in three of his four rounds at the BMW. Remarkably, he hasn’t made the TOUR Championship since 2017, but his history over the course of his career has been strong here, posting three top-10’s since 2013.
There’s a few guys to choose from in this range, and I do like Daniel Berger ($5,800 DraftKings) quite a bit this week since we’re back on Bermuda, but I will break the tie based on Garcia’s history. You cannot go wrong either way at both of their respective salaries, and paying down here allows you to fit multiple studs at the top, which is all we’re looking for in a no-cut event like this.
Erik Van Rooyen ($5,000 DraftKings)
EVR is one of the hottest players remaining in the playoffs, finishing seventh at the Northern Trust and then fifth last week at the BMW. He ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained in that time frame, which is pretty good for someone who costs the stone minimum $5,000 on DraftKings this week.
The South-African will be making his debut at East Lake, but considering the tear he’s been on and what his salary allows you to do, he makes for an incredibly tough fade in any format. EVR has posted some monster ball-striking rounds over the last two weeks and is a positive putter on Bermuda greens making this decision a no-brainer, folks. Play the man.
Honorable mention to Billy Horschel ($5,100 DraftKings) this week as well. He has not played great of late, but he’s had some pretty strong success at East Lake over the years, posting both a win and a T-2 since 2013. He’s a great Bermuda putter as well, so if you need the salary relief don’t be afraid to roll him out there in a pinch.
Pictured above: Xander Schauffele.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images.
