This week the TOUR heads to California, as the PGA West Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course host the American Express. The courses are both par-72s that measure slightly above 7,100 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score usually hovers somewhere around the 25-under range. So we should be targeting big time birdie makers.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate; however, these players are great options in any contest type. Also check out Chris Murphy’s Course Preview and DFS Breakdown, where he highlights his eight favorite DFS picks based on course-fit at the Country Club of Jackson.
Note: My forthcoming analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column each week, which highlights golfers to buy and fade following each round of play at that week’s PGA TOUR event, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKing’s scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($9,500 DraftKings)
We will keep rostering Scheffler until he gives us a reason not to. He’s clearly shaken off whatever rust he had after being diagnosed with COVID-19 back in September. He’s coming into play in really good form, posting three top-20s over his past four events. With Jon Rahm withdrawing, it makes this tournament more wide open and Scheffler should take full advantage after finishing T-3 here last year in his debut.
It’s been Scheffler’s off-the-tee game thats carried of him of late, as he sits second in this field over his past 16 rounds in SG:OTT. He’s quite a bit cheaper than Cantlay, Koepka and Finau and he has just as much win equity as anyone in this field. He makes for a strong cash game building block, as it would surprise no one if he posted his first career PGA TOUR victory this week.
Abraham Ancer ($9,100 DraftKings)
Ancer missed the cut on the number last week at the Sony, so the public might have some trepidation going back to him this week. However, if we dig into his numbers we’d find he was absolutely locked in with his irons last week. He ranks fourth in SG: Ball Striking over his past two rounds in this field. Obviously that’s a diminutive sample, but it just shows that we should have no fear in going right back to the well this week. Ancer’s history at this event is also strong, making three of four cuts, including a runner up finish last season. I like the idea of pairing Ancer with Scheffler and going from there in this somewhat weaker field.
Sam Burns ($8,300 DraftKings)
Anytime we have Bermuda greens Burns needs to be in consideration, as he averages just under .5 fewer strokes per round on Bermuda compared to other surfaces. It also helps that Burns has been locked in since the fall swing, making four of his five cuts on the young season with two top-10s in that span. His ball striking has been arguably the best in this field of late as well, as over his past eight rounds he ranks third in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking while sitting first in SG: Off-the-Tee in the same time frame. In two starts at this event he’s finished T-18 and T-6, and all signs point to him replicating that success again this week at a really friendly price of just $8,300 on DraftKings. I cannot find one reason to not play Burns in cash this week.
Adam Hadwin ($8,000 DraftKings)
The classic course history vs. current form debate will be in full effect with Hadwin this week. He’s been absolutely atrocious of late, missing each of his last three cuts, while also ranking a paltry 92nd in SG:Tee-to-Green in this field across his past 16 rounds. The reason we bring this up is because he has by far the best history in this field and its not particularly close. He did not play here last year due to the birth of his child, but prior to that he went T-2, T-3, solo 2nd, T-6, 48th in a five year span. Normally it would be difficult to overlook someone’s current form when its been this bad, but there is clearly something about this course that Hadwin loves, and he is not overly expensive, so I’m more than willing to hold my nose and hope the familiar surroundings snap him out of this current funk he’s in. At $8,000 we’re basically just looking for a made cut.
Value Play
Sepp Straka ($7,400 DraftKings)
Straka has quietly been playing some really good golf of late, making eight of his past nine cuts with four top-25s in the process. This can largely be attributed to his ball striking, as the big Austrian sits second in this field in SG: Approach across his past 16 rounds. He also looked really good at this event last season, posting a T-4. At just $7,400 on DraftKings he makes for a strong value play in all formats.
Sleeper Play
Matthew NeSmith ($7,100 DraftKings)
NeSmith is coming off a missed cut at the Sony, but his ball striking was not the problem. He just couldn’t drop a putt to save his life. We will not get hung up on one week however, as he’s been hitting it incredibly for quite some time now. Over his past 12 rounds in this field he ranks eighth in in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Approach and 18th in total strokes gained. He finished 17th here last season in his debut, and at his depressed price tag this week provides really nice salary relief with a strong amount of upside
Other Targets
Si Woo Kim ($8,200 DraftKings)
The Pete Dye specialist himself, Kim has been playing really well of late, ranking fourth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 16 rounds. He’s played well here before, finishing T-9 back in 2016. He is cheap enough to warrant cash game consideration in this field and makes for a great GPP play.
