What You Need To Know
Since 2013, the CIMB Classic has been played at the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club (now known as TPC Kuala Lumpur) in Malaysia. In 2015, the course was obliterated by some of the PGA Tour’s finest. The top-five finishers, including winner Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, and Hideki Matsuyama, ended the week with an average score of 24.2 under par.
Ryan Moore went back-to-back in 2013 and 2014 with an average score of just 15.5 under par. Gary Woodland finished second in both of those years. Kevin Na has finished in second- and third-place the past two seasons.
The field is both small (78 golfers) and elite. There is no cut. Ten of the players in the field rank among the top 30 in the official world rankings.
Because both accurate drivers like Moore and Na and power drivers like Woodland, Thomas, and Scott have all played well here we will examine both Driving Accuracy (DA) and Driving Distance (DD) this week. With the winning score likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 under par, we will also take a look at Greens in Regulation (GIR).
Driving Distance
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Scott ranks fourth in the field in both Long-Term (LT) DD at 306.5 yards and LT GIR at 70.1 percent. His 68.6 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is tied for the best mark in the field, and he was the runner-up at this course last year. Scott has three top-five finishes and a top-10 finish in his last five starts.
Woodland ranks right behind Scott with a nearly identical 306.4-yard LT DD. As previously mentioned, he finished second here twice. Woodland’s 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for ninth and his 68.2 LT GIR percentage is tied for 11th.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Tony Finau leads the field with a very long 310.8-yard LT DD. His 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 15th and his 13.5 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) is 14th. Finau finished T7 at this tournament last year. Per our Trends tool, golfers in this price range with comparable LT metrics have previously produced a very healthy +8.23 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
The 304.9-yard LT DD of Hudson Swafford is sixth overall. Swafford’s 70.1 LT Adj Rd Score ranks 36th among the 78 players in the field but his 68.1 percent LT GIR is 13th overall. Value golfers with similar LT metrics have generated a +3.90 Plus/Minus with 60.5 percent Consistency. Swafford finished T24 here last year, and in a no-cut event his low salary makes him an attractive piece of a stars-and-scrubs roster.
Driving Accuracy
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Two-time champion Moore’s 67.4 percent LT DA leads the high-priced tier and ranks seventh overall. Moore’s 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is 15th and his 13.2 LT Adj Bird Avg is 21st. He is in high-quality recent form, having racked up a win, a second-place finish, and two top-10 finishes in his last six starts. He loves this track and can be played this week with confidence.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Russell Knox and Emiliano Grillo have extremely similar metrics. They both have 69.3 LT Adj Rd Scores (ninth in the field) and 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Scores. Knox’s ninth-ranked 67.1 percent LT DA gives him the slightest edge over Grillo, who has a 67.0 percent LT DA. Grillo’s 70 percent LT GIR ranks fifth; Knox’s 69.6 percent ranks sixth. Golfers with comparable LT metrics in this pricing tier have historically yielded a +6.90 Plus/Minus on DK with 66.7 percent Consistency.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Chez Reavie‘s 68.7 percent LT DA ranks fourth overall and his 69.6 LT GIR percentage is tied for sixth. Reavie’s 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is 26th but his 68.9 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 13th. At almost the bare minimum (only five players are cheaper), Reavie is likely to be a deliciously chalky cash game play this week.
Greens in Regulation
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Apparently Paul Casey refuses to finish any worse than fourth (at least recently). He posted two second-place finishes and a fourth-place finish in the FedExCup Playoffs and followed that up with a T3 in the Safeway Open last week. Casey’s 71.7 LT GIR percentage is second to only Rafael Cabrera-Bello‘s mark. He’s tied with Scott atop the field with a 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score, and his 65.3 percent LT DA is 16th. Casey’s 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg is eighth, and he has the highest Odds To Win the tournament (9.1 percent). The only reason to fade Casey in tournaments would be if you’re projecting exceedingly high ownership for him. That said, he hasn’t played exceptionally well here in two starts (high finish of T24), which may keep his ownership down.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Brendan Steele won the Safeway Open last week, so he arrives at this tournament in excellent form. Steele’s 69.3 percent LT GIR ranks eighth, and his 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score is 14th. Steele finished T3 here last year at 24 under par. It’s possible that Steele could be suffering from winner’s hangover, but his 18.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg is the second-best mark in the field among golfers who have made at least two starts over the past two weeks. It’s highly probable that Steele goes low again this week.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Chad Campbell is the kind of accurate ball striker who fits the profile of many past top-five finishers here. He ranks 16th in LT GIR (67.7 percent), 17th in LT DA (65.2 percent), and 29th in LT Adj Rd Score (69.9). Value golfers with comparable LT metrics have traditionally provided a +2.61 Plus/Minus on DK.
New Season, New Daddy
Congratulations to the PGA Breakdown‘s regular writer, Jonathan Cabezas (@cabay24), who is freaking out and changing sh*tty diapers taking some time to be with his new child.
Good luck this week in Kuala Lumpur.
