After a tough week at The Players Championship, let’s move on to TPC Four Seasons in Irving, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The course plays a shade over 7,100 yards and is a Par-70 track that tends to cater to bombers:
Now, this doesn’t mean that we should limit our Models to deep hitters only. However, with only two Par-5s and 12 Par-4s on the course, scoring will be at a premium. Golfers who are not long off of the tee will need to compensate by consistently hitting fairways.
Let’s hit the PGA Recent Form Report.
How Popular of a Play Will Dustin Johnson Be?
This is not a slight to Charley Hoffman ($10,800), but you know that when he is the third-highest-priced golfer in an event, the field is probably weak. [Editor’s Note: Actually, that’s a slight to Charley Hoffman.]
Jordan Spieth ($12,500) and Dustin Johnson ($11,900) have the highest salaries this week. Anytime Spieth is in the field he is popular, but he is coming off of a missed cut (by one stroke) at The Players Championship. With a lower salary, Johnson sits in excellent recent form on a course at which he has historically competed.
Spieth’s presence makes predicting ownership harder at the top, but Johnson will likely be popular this week and for good reason. He owns the lowest Recent Adjusted Round score in the field (67.3) and has already racked up five top-15 finishes in eight events on Tour this season. Additionally, Johnson has four top-10 finishes in his last five trips to the AT&T Byron Nelson, a fact that will doubtlessly elevate his ownership.
Given his excellent recent form and course history, Johnson isn’t likely to be under-rostered. Still, Johnson makes for a strong play in a weak field, despite higher expected ownership. In tournaments, we’ll have to find ways to make our rosters unique elsewhere.
Finding Value in Weaker Fields
Unlike The Players, the AT&T Byron Nelson isn’t exactly teeming with talent up and down the pricing scale. To mitigate the dearth of talent, here is a trend of golfers who A) are priced no higher than $7,500 and B) have Recent Adjusted Round Scores no higher than 69:
And here is the trend’s output for the week:
Even with the weak field, we’ve found a little bit of value. Lucas Glover has made five straight cuts (finishing in the top-35 in four of those events) and Boo Weekly has made the cut in five of his last six events. Glover — in terms of recent play and course fit (he is in the 70th percentile in Long-Term Driving Distance) — probably tops this trend:
No Distance, Knost Problem?
I apologize for the awful pun. The AT&T Byron Nelson field is stretched so thin that after the $8,000 salary range everything seems like a terrible joke.
Colt Knost’s recent form, however, isn’t a joke. He has missed just two cuts on Tour this season and has the Byron Nelson field’s second-best Recent Adjusted Round Score (67.7). The only issue with Knost this week is his lack of distance off of the tee (275 yards on average), which he makes up for with great accuracy (71.9%) and the field’s eighth-best Recent Greens in Regulation rate (68.1%):
Knost’s lack of distance is worrisome and could hurt his chances at competing for a top-30 finish, but he might be a solid pivot play off of Keegan Bradley, who has solid course history at the Byron Nelson and could have a relatively high lineup percentage.
