Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, from now on we will refer them to our Plays of the Week article, which we publish every Wednesday for PGA.
In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Rory McIlroy
It will be admittedly very hard to roster Rory McIlroy this weekend. We discussed McIlroy in depth on the PGA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast yesterday. Despite everything that Rory has in his favor (which we’ll get to in just one moment), it’s just really hard to construct a roster around him, given his $12,800 DraftKings salary. However, I think that he could be a contrarian play in tournaments for that very reason.
It’s not hard to find reasons to like him this week: He fits the course perfectly, has really high implied Vegas odds (currently 20 percent to win), and set the course record here just last year. Because there are no positions or scarcity in PGA DFS, it really comes down to finding lower-priced values that allow you to pay up for the top dogs of a tournament. As discussed on the podcast, the clear values this week are in the middle $7,000-ish range, which means that people will very often bypass the Rory-and-scrubs strategy in favor of a more balanced lineup. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but getting a guy who has this many positives and could have a low lineup percentage sounds enticing.
Check out Bryan’s recent article in which he finds the most valuable PGA DFS stats for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Graham Barfield: Hideki Matsuyama
I’m really excited for the Wells Fargo Championship. Not only is Quail Hollow in one of my favorite cities in America (Charlotte, North Carolina), but this event also features the best PGA field that we’ve had since the Masters. Pricing is also really soft this week, which (in theory) should make it easier to get five or six golfers through the cut.
One golfer in particular who seems to be priced down is Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100). Not only does he have the best Recent Adjusted Round score (66.9) among golfers with more than one recent event in the field, but he is also third in Recent Adjusted Par-5 scoring (-8). Three of Quail Hollow’s four Par 5s check in at over 550 yards, so golfers who are long off the tee (which Matsuyama is) and capable of making birdies on the long holes will be rewarded. There is no reason that Matsuyama should be only the eighth-highest-priced golfer in this field.
For more on Matsuyama and other golfers, be sure t check out Graham’s Recent Form Report.
Kelly McCann: Daniel Berger
If you read Finding Frankenstein later today, you’ll see Daniel Berger in consideration for this week’s title, but he comes up a bit short in the end. But by no means does this eliminate him from being my play of the day.
Recent Adjusted Round score is one of the metrics that I’m paying close attention to this week. It’s proven to be a huge indicator of success in rounds played at Quail Hollow. Berger ranks seventh in that category this week. He also ranks eighth in Recent Greens in Regulation. In one trend particular screening for rounds played at Quail Hollow, Recent GIR provided a +10.25 Plus/Minus at a 60.6 percent Consistency.
If you’re concerned with Quail Hollow’s bomber-friendly layout, fear not. Berger can bomb it with the best of them, ranking eighteenth in Long-Term Driving Distance this week. Accuracy may go overlooked with the concentration on length, but the Trends tool proved Recent Driving Accuracy to be a reliable trait for profitable players at Quail Hollow. Berger is one of only nineteen golfers with a Recent Driving Accuracy above 70 percent.
Berger has made five straight cuts, and has Top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts. Play him with confidence.
Keep an eye out for Kelly’s Finding Frankenstein piece, coming soon.
Jonathan Cabezas: Charles Howell III
I am giving Charles Howell III the unfortunate task of bouncing me back from last week’s recommendation (d*mn you, Justin Rose). Howell fits exactly what I am looking for this week, with good Long-Term Driving Distance (302.8 feet) and Long-Term GIR (67.6 percent). Howell’s accuracy off of the tee is alarming, but I am less concerned about accuracy with golfers who have some knowledge of the course. Howell has plenty of course history to draw from, and although his history isn’t the most impressive he has made the cut in each of his last three appearances at the Wells Fargo.
Howell has been incredibly consistent recently, resulting in his making 10 of 11 cuts in 2016. His salary hasn’t quite caught up to his consistent play, as shown by his +12.52 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency in the 2015-2016 season. Howell is an elite option in both formats and will remain one until he is more accurately priced. As if we needed any more reasons to put our trust in Charles, check out a screen shot from our Trends tool, showing a histogram of his actual fantasy points vs. his salary-based expectations throughout the current PGA Tour season.
For more information on course history, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
