Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, we refer them to our Plays of the Week article, which we publish every Wednesday for PGA.
In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the week.
Bryan Mears: Emiliano Grillo
During last week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast on the Wells Fargo Championship, I asked our Director of PGA Colin Davy what he thought of up-and-comer Grillo that week. His answer was something along the lines of “I love Grillo, but this course [Quail Hollow] is just an awful fit. However, I can’t wait to roster him when he does fit.”
Colin must know the art of foreshadowing, because, man, does Grillo fit TPC Sawgrass. The course, unlike those that we’ve seen the last several weeks, really deemphasizes distance and rewards ball-strikers. Grillo fits this course perfectly. His Long-Term Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy marks of 71.2 and 68.7 percent respectively are elite for any golfer, let alone one priced at a measly $6,700 on DraftKings.
This issue with everything stated above is that it isn’t really a secret. However, that’s also useful information. Grillo should absolutely be a staple of your cash-game lineups this weekend. In fact, he should probably be the first player you put into each lineup. And there’s still a ton of Upside in getting Grillo into your tournament lineups: You will, though, need to be sure create a unique lineup outside of his spot.
Check out Bryan’s recent article in which he finds the most valuable PGA DFS stats for The Players Championship.
Graham Barfield: Branden Grace
Since there is so much variability in golf, one way to gain an edge on our opponents is to leverage low-rostered golfers who are comparable (especially in salary) to high-rostered golfers. In rostering these overlooked options, one positions oneself to benefit if the chalky golfers fail and negatively impact the rest of the field’s lineups.
I fully expect Zach Johnson to be chalk at The Players. He’s fairly cheap ($8,300) and has excellent course history at TPC Sawgrass (six straight top-26 finishes or better). I’m not suggesting that Johnson will miss the cut or that he’s not decent for cash games, but Grace ($8,600) is an ideal player to pivot to if one wants to leverage the field’s exposure to Johnson.
It also helps that Grace is in significantly better form. Grace’s Recent Adjusted Round score of 68.3 is clearly superior to Zach Johnson’s (69.6) and Grace is barraging greens with his iron play in his recent events. His Recent GIR of 65.7 percent is in the 85th percentile in The Players’ field while Johnson’s (56.9 percent) is lagging well behind in the 45th percentile. Grace might be more than just a way to leverage Johnson. He might actually be the preferable play.
For information on other golfers competing in The Players, be sure to check out Graham’s Recent Form Report.
Kelly McCann: Matt Kuchar
Kuchar is pretty boring, but he’s an exceptionally safe play this week.
He’s also priced in a very interesting tier that could have him under-rostered despite the security that he provides. Kuchar missed the cut at this event last year and Sawgrass Course-Horse Zach Johnson is just $200 more expensive. In addition, some “flashy” golfers like Daniel Berger, Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman and Brooks Koepka can all be rostered for lower salaries.
Among golfers who have at least two appearances at The Players, Kuchar has the fifth-best Course AdjRd Score of 68.9. He won this event in 2012 and has four top-20 finishes in the last seven years. He is in excellent current form, as evidenced by his 68.5 Recent AdjRd Score, and his Long-Term GIR of 66.2 percent implies that he will pepper the greens throughout the tournament. Also, the data at TPC Sawgrass suggests that recent scrambling will play a large part in success this week and Kuchar’s 63.1 percent puts his squarely in the green for that metric.
Finally, if you’re into (bizarre) narratives, Kuchar tends to bring his A game to Ponte Vedra. In 2009, he and his wife, Sybi, won the consolation title in the USTA National Husband/Wife Doubles Championship at the ATP Headquarters, which is in (you guessed it) Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.
Keep an eye out for Kelly’s Finding Frankenstein piece, coming soon.
Jonathan Cabezas: Martin Kaymer
There are cheaper options for salary relief and players with more Upside priced above him, but Kaymer is setting up as the perfect mid-range option in The Players Championship. The key statistics for this week aren’t screaming at us to play Martin, but his Long-Term GIR of 67 percent is more than respectable and his accuracy off of the tee has gotten better of late. Kaymer finished 56th here last year after winning the tournament in 2014, and his Course Adjusted Round Score is the second-highest among golfers with more than two tournament appearances at TPC Sawgrass.
His lack of Pro Trends — he has one Pro Trend — may be cause for concern, but his course history alone is enough to warrant serious tournament consideration. Kaymer is priced in a sweet spot that works with a balanced-roster approach, one that places him with some of the higher-priced options. His salary ($7,200) is just too cheap for a player with his history, and he can work himself into almost any roster construction or strategy that you wish to employ this weekend
For more information on course history, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown, coming soon.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
