Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, we refer them to our Plays of the Week article, which we publish every Wednesday for PGA.
In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the week for the AT&T Byron Nelson 2016.
Jonathan Cabezas: Lucas Glover
Glover has been playing great recently, as shown by the 1.8-stroke differential between his Long-Term and Recent-Form Adjusted Round Scores. His long-term statistics — 70.1 percent Greens in Regulation, 297.1-yard Driving Distance, and 64.2 percent Driving Accuracy — are all impressive, but his putting has been his Achilles heel throughout his career. His solid recent form owes thanks to his flat iron, as his putts per round have decreased a full stroke across his last three tournaments.
Even in great form, Glover is for guaranteed prize pools only. His career putting woes knock him out of cash game consideration, as his recent performance is not enough for me to ignore completely a long history of problems on the green. If, however, his recent form holds, he will be a fine GPP play this weekend, as he has the potential to compete at the top of the leaderboard Sunday.
For more information on course history and other golfers, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown.
Graham Barfield: Brooks Koepka
On a course that rewards Bombers, Koepka isn’t receiving nearly the amount of attention he deserves. Perhaps he’s overlooked because in pricing he’s wedged in between the $10,000-and-above golfers on the one side and Marc Leishman on the other side. Leishman does have good course history at TPC Four Seasons, but that doesn’t alter the fact that Koepka fits this course perfectly.
Koepka (the ninth-highest-priced golfer in the slate) is in the top eight in all of the most important Long-Term categories this week, such as Adj Rd Score, GIR, and DD. Additionally, his recent form isn’t as bad as it may seem. Although he has missed two cuts in his last four events by one and two strokes, Koepka is 11th in the Byron Nelson field in Recent Adj Rd Score (68.9). Even in an event with a weak field, that’s a very good score.
Not since mid-February has Koepka finished in the top 10 in tournament play, so he could be rather under-rostered by DFS players, which is great, since TPC Four Seasons is the perfect course for Koepka to get back in the top 10.
For information on other golfers competing in the AT&T Byron Nelson, be sure to check out Graham’s Recent Form Report.
Sean Valukis: Dustin Johnson
In a field that features only two of the top-10 golfers in the world, Johnson is likely to be rostered in a lot of lineups, maybe as many as 30 percent. Unlike the other top golfer (Jordan Spieth), DJ checks all the boxes. Plus, you should still be able to roster him if you are sure to differentiate your lineups with the other five lineup spots.
Let’s go down the list of things to consider:
- Course history: He has four top-10 finishes in his six appearances here. He also has no missed cuts.
- Course form: This article by Bryan Mears covers the PGA DFS stats predictive of solid performance at TPC Four Seasons. DJ is the best fit for several of the more positive indicators.
- Recent form: He has four top-10 finishes in his last six appearances. He hasn’t missed a cut since October of last year. And he had his best GIR score of the season last week at The Players Championship with an average DD of over 300 yards.
DJ may be chalkier than a gymnast’s hands, but he’s still worth rostering.
For information on TPC Four Season in Las Colinas, check out Sean’s Course Breakdown.
Kelly McCann: Ryan Palmer
In my Las Colinas research this week, long-term metrics really popped, particular Adj Rd Score, GIR, and birdies. Based on these metrics, two golfers priced under $10,000 really stood out to me: Koepka and Palmer.
LT Adj Rd Score has really shown to be a positive indicator of success at this track. In one trend, LT Adj Rd Score produced a Plus/Minus of +9.21 with 61.9 percent Consistency. Palmer has the seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field at 69.3.
Additionally, Palmer is tied for seventh-best in the field with 14.2 long-term birdies. And it’s hard to birdie without getting your ball on the green. Palmer’s 67 percent LT GIR places him squarely in (and on) the green this week.
Course history got thrown out of the window last week at The Players Championship, but Palmer (a Texas native) placed second at this event in 2011 and has three top-ten finishes in his last five starts at the Byron Nelson.
For Kelly’s thoughts on one of the other golfers highlighted in this piece, check out his Finding Frankenstein.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
