Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, we refer them to our Plays of the Week article, which we publish every Wednesday for PGA.
In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the week.
Bryan Mears: Jordan Spieth
Yesterday, I published a piece about the creation of Vegas Bargain Rating, a metric that evaluates golfers based on the difference between their actual DraftKings salaries and the salaries they should theoretically have based on their Vegas implied odds to win a tournament.
What I found is something that I’ve been suspecting for a while: In terms of Upside, the elite (and very high-priced) golfers are still very undervalued and underpriced. That’s at least the case with Spieth ($12,800) this week, because of which he is a premier option for guaranteed prize pools.
Basically, the difference between Jordan’s implied odds to win the tournament and the odds of other golfers is much larger than the ratio between their salaries. That means that, with Jordan, you’re rostering additional Upside at a relative discount.
Of course, Jordan isn’t a sure thing by any means, especially since he’s really struggling with his driver. Recently, he has a 58.9-percent Driving Accuracy mark, which is 3.9 percentage points down from his long-term mark. On a course that really rewards ball strikers and accuracy, Jordan could struggle. Of course, he might not.
Spieth’s recent form and high salary take him away from serious cash-game consideration — but they also (along with his elite talent and high Vegas Bargain Rating) make him an elite GPP play. Will it be really hard to fit Jordan into a lineup? And is that lineup the one with the most potential to take down a GPP this weekend? I would say, “Yes,” to both questions.
Check out Bryan’s recent article in which he finds the most valuable PGA DFS stats for the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. Also, be sure to listen to this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Graham Barfield: Danny Lee
Besides Matt Kuchar, not many other golfers fit Colonial as well as Lee does this week. I have no idea how highly owned he will be in this field, but his game perfectly suits what we’re looking for at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. Lee’s Recent Greens in Regulation (67.6 percent) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (69.1) are tied for 10th-best in the field.
Coming off two top-20 finishes in his last three events, Lee seems to be peaking heading into the week. At a palatable price ($8,800), Lee has the Consistency and Upside to make him an excellent option for both cash games and tournaments.
For information on other golfers competing in the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational, be sure to check out Graham’s Recent Form Report.
Kelly McCann: Jason Dufner
Dufner: Not a golfer I typically target. I actually preferred him when he was a slightly fat long-haired dude who looked like he belonged on your local municipal course twelve beers deep. This new, clean-cut, country-club preppy version is much less appealing. That’s exactly why I let the data make the decisions for me.
Dufner’s 69.7 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score is excellent, and his improved 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Score proves that his game is on the upswing. With eight Pro Trends, Dufner is tied for third best in the field.
Two metrics I’m buttering my bread with this week are Recent GIR and Recent Birdies. Dufner’s 73.1-percent Recent GIR is flat-out ridiculous and is third best in the field. Only eight golfers at DEAN & DELUCA have a recent birdie average greater than fifteen per tournament and Dufner is one of them.
And Dufner has sufficient course history, with a 69.8 Course Adj Rd Score that puts him eighth among golfers who have at least five starts at this event. He has made four straight cuts and has two second-place finishes in the last four years. At $8,400, he’s a value.
Jonathan Cabezas: Scott Stallings
I almost doubled down and went with Lucas Glover as my recommendation for a second straight week, but I’m forgoing Glover in favor of Stallings ($6,800). He came through last week by finishing 34th at the Byron Nelson and he sets up similarly for the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational.
He has rather strange course history, with one fourth-place finish surrounded by missed cuts, but he is coming into this event in much different form. He averaged at least 31 putts per round in his three missed cuts at this event, but his flat iron is on fire recently, averaging 27.5 putts per round through his last four tournaments.
Chasing a hot putter is not recommended in cash games, especially given Stallings’ Recent Driving Accuracy of 52.2 percent. His form is solid though, as shown by the fact that his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.7 is more than two strokes better than his long-term mark.
I plan on shying away from Stallings in cash games, because the seemingly imminent regression could occur at any tournament — but he has made four straight cuts. In tournaments, I’m going to keep running Stallings out there until either his price comes up or he regresses toward his form of the past.
For more information on the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
