In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays for the 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Bryan Mears: Francesco Molinari
In my weekly stats article, I found that for TPC Southwind (the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic) the most valuable DFS Golf stats were . . . all of them? Or none of them?
Given the course fit uncertainty, the best DFS strategy is a rather simple one: Look for golfers whose talents do not match their salaries. This week, Molinari is such a golfer.
If we look at only golfers with a long-term tournament count of at least 20 and then filter by Adjusted Round Score, we will see the high-priced golfers at $10,000 and more and then Molinari at $8,100. He is coming off a missed cut at the Memorial, but Molinari was in great recent form prior to last week, having previously missed only one cut all year and recording multiple top-10 finishes.
This week, Molinari doesn’t fit the course as perfectly as we’d like — his Driving Distance is low at 282.3 — but, again, course fit analysis should probably be weighted less this week anyway. Molinari has the accuracy (both off the tee and around the greens) to hang around all weekend. And, most importantly, his talent is much higher than his salary indicates. When all else fails, revert to that.
Driving Distance and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool. Also, be sure to check out this week’s Golf Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, with Bryan, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), and PGA Director Colin Davy.
Kelly McCann: Will Wilcox
Wilcox is the ultimate tournament play this week. Despite missing the cut last week and scoring only 17 DraftKings points, he has experienced a +$700 Salary Change. For people focusing on recent form and searching for value, Wilcox will be very easy to fade. As a result, he might have depressed ownership this week.
Just one completely subjective hot taek, if I may: With all the withdrawal madness, I’m quite certain that Wilcox will not let his DFS family down by pulling out. That’s not his style.
On the course, Wilcox is checking all the appropriate boxes this week. He can scramble with the best of them, as his 61.4-percent Long-Term Scrambling Score ranks ninth in the St. Jude field. His 66.4-percent LT Greens in Regulation plants him firmly inside the field’s top 30, and his 62.8-percent LT Driving Accuracy places him squarely in the green (and on the fairway).
If you’re a believer in course history, then you’re a believer in Wilcox this week. He finished 12th last year and 19th in 2014. His 68.8 Course Adj Rd Score is fourth in the field. Additionally, when running countless trends for this week’s Finding Frankenstein, I kept noticing Wilcox pop up as a current match. Make use of our free Trends tool, and you’ll see what I mean. He’s in a good spot.
Also, for more on this week’s tournament and field, check out Kelly’s Finding Frankenstein piece, coming soon.
Jonathan Cabezas: Retief Goosen
Goosen has made 10 straight cuts, four of which have turned into top-25 finishes, the most recent one being his 12th-place finish at The Players. The only blemish on his recent course history is a missed cut last year, when (despite hitting only 36-percent of his fairways) he still managed to miss the cut by just a single stroke. His salary has gone up over $2,000 since his last event, but he was competing against the world’s best golfers in The Players Championship. The significantly weaker field this week more than warrants his current price tag.
Goosen’s Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.6 is 1.8 points better than his long-term average and is tied directly to his 27.5 Recent Putts Per Round. Chasing the hot putter is dangerous, but you should be fine even if Goosen’s putter cools off: His 75-percent Consistency through his last 16 events shows that he has found a way to score even when putting closer to his LT PPR average of 29.1. Although he has hit only 63.4 percent of his greens through the past six weeks, his average of 15.3 birdies per tournament during that time is tied for sixth in the field.
For more information on the St. Jude Classic, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
