Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, from now on we will refer them to our Plays of the Day article, which we will publish every Wednesday for PGA and every weekday for MLB.
In every PGA Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: J.B. Holmes
As mused in my PGA stats article earlier this week, there doesn’t seem to be a definitive player type who perfectly fits this week’s course, the TPC San Antonio Oaks course. We saw a glove-like fit the last couple weeks — a high-Driving Distance, high-Greens in Regulation player type for the Masters and a high-Putting Accuracy, high-GIR type for the RBC Heritage. This week, it seems like distance is fairly important, but really it’s just about finding the best golfers who are perhaps a bit mispriced on DraftKings.
J.B. Holmes stands out in that regard — he’s a distance guy with a very good Adjusted Round Score is very good — and he’s also probably a bit underpriced. His recent play (a very impressive 66 Recent Adj. Rd. Score), long-term marks, and even Vegas implied odds all suggest that he should be in the higher $10k range on DraftKings. Because there are no heavy favorites this week — Jimmy Walker currently has the highest implied odds at 5.9 percent — it’s probably a good idea to take a balanced-roster approach. Regardless, J.B. Holmes might be the best play for any approach this week, so having sufficient roster balance as well as an Upside guy like Holmes will be key.
Also, check out the Fantasy Flex Podcast, in which Bryan, Colin Davy, and Peter Jennings break down the VTO 2016.
Sean Valukis: Jhonattan Vegas
We know from the course breakdown article posted yesterday that TPC San Antonio has tough Par 3s and 4s. The scoring opportunities come from the Par 5s, although they are not necessarily “easy.” The shortest of the four on the course plays at 567 yards, with the other three being 590+ yards each. So driving distance will play a factor. Using the Trends tool, if you combine the Recent Par 5 Scoring and Recent DD, you can narrow down to a list of players who could have the best opportunity to score.
In a week with only 22 (!) players priced between $7,000 and $8,800 — and with an unappealing under-$7k tier — finding value is crucial. Consider the following two matches from the trend listed above:
Player A: -5.5 strokes on Par 5 per tournament, 303.6 recent DD
Player B: -5.3 strokes on Par 5 per tournament, 303.3 recent DD
Now I’ll tell you that Player B exceeds his expected value 60 percent of the time (per our Plus/Minus and Consistency metrics), has made four of his last five cuts, and is $2,200 cheaper on DK this week than Player A (who is Jason Kokrak).
Player B is Jhonattan Vegas — and he’s worth a look, given the overwhelming scarcity of Upside in the middle tier.
Graham Barfield: Patrick Reed
Yeah, sure. Everyone hates Patrick Reed. The guy had a belt buckle made of him “shushing” the crowd at the 2014 Ryder Cup, and it’s pretty clear the real question should be this: Who the hell wears belt buckles?! Still, despite all of his antics, there is a small part of me that sort of . . . likes Patrick Reed. It’s a part of me that I hate, if I’m honest. However, there are a lot of reasons to love him this week at the Valero Open.
First, Branden Grace aside, Patrick Reed is probably the second-best golfer in this weak Texas Open field. He’s tied for second in the field for the lowest Long-Term Adjusted Scoring average (68.1) and is tied for the third-lowest Recent Scoring Average (68.4). Everyone still has Reed’s disappointing T49 finish at the Masters stuck in their heads, but they are forgetting that he ripped off a stretch of T6, missed cut, T52, T7, T9 (Match Play) and T10 the six events prior. Since he’s priced just below the always popular Matt Kuchar, hopefully everyone will still hate Patrick Reed for one more week.
Keep an eye out for Graham’s Recent Form Report, which should be out later today.
Jonathan Cabezas: Ryan Palmer
In an effort to stay away from some of the high-priced golfers this week, I love Ryan Palmer as a tournament option. He has made the cut in 10 straight tournaments, having not missed a cut since the season opener in October. Of all players with at least a two percent implied odds to win, Palmer is the cheapest, at a price of only $8,500. By utilizing the Trends tool, I can see that players who are priced below $9,000 and have at least two a percent chance of winning, have performed 4.66 points above their salary-adjusted expectations.
Palmer’s length off of the tee is often ignored because of his inability to hit fairways, as shown in his long-term driving accuracy of 56.7 percent. That does not overly concern me this week, as the potential for rain can soften the course and make for some more forgiving approach shots, even if his tee shot hasn’t left the greatest line to the pin. His long driving distance and poor accuracy could lead you to believe that he is a boom-or-bust tournament option, but his solid recent form and ability to make the cut are reasons to look his way in cash games.
Keep an eye out for Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown, which should be out later today.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every Wednesday for PGA and every weekday for MLB.
