The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
With the PGA Championship in the rearview mirror, we’ve got a rather weak field on tap for the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club.
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Sedgefield. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 53.82 DraftKings points and a +6.65 Plus/Minus with a 50.5% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +8.71
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +5.76
- Course Birdies: +5.12
- Recent Eagles: +4.04
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +3.74
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +3.44
- Course Greens in Regulation: +3.31
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +3.23
- Course Driving Accuracy: +2.99
- Recent Scrambling: +2.85
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +2.81
- Course Missed Cuts: +2.77
- Course Putts Per Round: +2.76
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.23
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +1.13
Sedgefield is a fairly short course: It checks in at just 7,127 yards as a par 70. It’s one of the easier courses on tour, so it should resemble some of the birdie fests we witnessed leading up to the PGA Championship. Six course-specific trends back-tested well here, including Course Adjusted Round Score (Course Adj Rd Score), so I may pay more attention to course history than I usually do most weeks. Long-Term Greens in Regulation (LT GIR) stood out, yielding a Plus/Minus nearly three points higher than any of the other metrics. Given how short this course is, Strokes Gained: Approach will also be something to monitor. Overall, this week seems pretty straightforward: Target golfers who can hit greens, excel on par 4s, and rack up birdies.
The Studs
Webb Simpson ($11,600) checks in with the highest salary and odds (7.7%), and he’s tied for first in the field with the best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score). Since 2011, he hasn’t missed a cut at Sedgefield, and he has four top-four finishes, including a victory in 2011. Additionally, he ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season. If I had the additional salary, Simpson would be my preferred option among the three golfers who cost at least $11,000 (Henrik Stenson and Hideki Matsuyama).
While Stenson checks every box for this course and won this event last year, he’s been battling injuries the past few months, which makes me hesitant to roster him in cash games. That said, if you think the injury woes will depress his ownership, then he makes sense in tournaments considering his overall course fit. Matsuyama is off my radar this week, as he has been most of the PGA season. He isn’t in the best recent form (69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score), and he’s struggled to hit GIR (60.7%) over the past six weeks. Further, he ranks just 77th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($10,100) has looked great of late, finishing 10th at the PGA Championship last week and 17th at the Bridgestone Invitational. He’s made the cut in each of his last three PGA events, and that includes two major championships. RCB has a balanced game that should set him up for success this week. He’s also been exceptional this season with his approach game, ranking 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
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The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
In the course-specific model I created this week, Tyler Duncan ($7,300) rated inside the top five. Over the past 75 weeks, he’s hit 69.1% of GIR while hitting 68.7% of fairways in the process. His recent form is even better, nailing 78.3% of GIR over the past six weeks. Duncan is playing well right now with 10 straight made cuts; he’s averaged a +19.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating within that time frame. This should be another good spot for him, especially since he ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.
Chris Kirk ($7,500) has been a cut-making machine this season. Since February, he’s missed just one cut (Houston Open in April). Over his past 10 tournaments, he’s averaging an exceptional +17.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 90% Consistency Rating. Kirk is crushing on his approaches this season (13th in Strokes Gained: Approach), and over the past six weeks he’s hit 72.9% of GIR.
Sam Ryder ($7,300) can be volatile with his 42% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks, but his 71.3% GIR mark within the same time frame is the fourth-best mark in the field. He struggled at the Canadian Open (78th), but that was mostly due to poor putting (31 Putts Per Round). At the Barbasol Championship and John Deere Classic, Ryder put together seventh- and second-place finishes. His long-term and recent metrics look fantastic except for his short stick. If the putter is dialed in this week, he could string together a solid performance.
If you’re looking for a punt tournament option, Corey Conners ($6,500) is projected for 0-1% ownership and his 72.3% Long-Term GIR mark leads the field. He has similar metrics to Ryder, excelling at hitting GIR and fairways; both have been held back by poor putting. Conners’ 30.4 Long-Term Putts Per Round is one of the worst marks in the field, which makes him an unreliable cash-game option but intriguing for GPPs.
The Bump and Run
Given distance isn’t a factor, this is the perfect Steve Stricker ($8,300) course. He leads the field in average adjusted strokes on par 4s (-1.6) and par 5s (-5.6) over the past 75 weeks. Within the same time frame he’s hit 70.7% of GIR and 73.4% of fairways, so he should rarely be in trouble off the tee. Stricker is always a safe option, and his 12% missed-cut rate is the lowest mark in the field.
Ryan Moore ($9,000) has won at Sedgefield in the past (2009) and has four straight made cuts at this event. He’s in excellent recent form, possessing a 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score, while hitting 69.7% of GIR and averaging -2.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past six weeks.
Harold Varner III ($8,900) has been on fire over his past three tournaments, posting a 17th-place finish at the Canadian Open, along with two top-six finishes at the John Deere Classic and Greenbrier. Varner’s 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is the best mark in the field, although he does have some concerns, ranking just 113th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,700) is my favorite play of the tournament. Aside from him being able to smash the ball, he shines at hitting GIR (71.5% LT GIR) and fairways (66.6% Long-Term Driving Accuracy). His -1.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s is the second-best mark in the field, and he ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in proximity to the hole this season. Niemann possesses all the ball-striking qualities needed for this course, and he leads the field with 14.5 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks. The 19-year-old already has four top-eight finishes in his short PGA career this season. It’s only a matter of time before he gets a win.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Joaquin Niemann
Photo credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sport
