The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
With the FedEx Cup Playoffs arriving, we have a loaded field for the Northern Trust with most of the top-125 players in the FedEx Cup standings participating.
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Ridgewood Country Club. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 51.84 DraftKings points and a +5.21 Plus/Minus with a 57.4% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Bogeys: +6.49
- Course Driving Distance: +6.35
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +3.85
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +3.74
- Course Birdies: +2.70
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.21
- Course Greens in Regulation: +1.99
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.28
- Course Missed Cuts: +0.94
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.90
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +0.83
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +0.11
- Long-Term Eagles: +0.08
Ridgewood Country Club is a par 71, 7,385-yard course. We have just one tournament from Ridgewood CC in our database from 2014. Given the small sample size from a tournament nearly five years ago, I’ll be considering these metrics to a degree but also factoring in other metrics that are typically crucial on a week-to-week basis. Per our Golf Correlations Matrix, Vegas odds, Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Long-Term Greens in Regulation (LT GIR), Long-Term Missed Cut Score, and Long-Term Birdies have been among the most correlated metrics to fantasy points.
Given Ridgewood CC features three par 5s that exceed 587 yards, golfers will need to take advantage of the par 4s. One of the par 4s checks in at 291 yards, making it easily driveable for some of the longer hitters. Additionally, this course is rather narrow and lined with trees, making accuracy something to be aware of when constructing your rosters. Targeting golfers who excel at par-4 scoring, along with a combination of the back-tested metrics and correlation matrix standouts, should be a sound approach.
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The Studs
Despite his high salary every week, Dustin Johnson ($11,500) is still averaging a +12.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating this season. For cash games, I typically prefer a balanced approach, which would likely leave DJ off my roster in that format. However, in tournaments, some exposure would be wise considering his 16.3 birdies per tournament, 67.7 LT Adj Rd Score, and 10% implied odds to win.
Jason Day ($10,700) doesn’t stand out with his 62.9% LT GIR, but he’s one of the best putters in the field, averaging 28.2 Putts Per Round (PPR) over the past 75 weeks. The middling GIR mark (62.9% over the past 75 weeks) hasn’t stopped him from carding birdies: His 15.8 LT birdies per tournament mark is tied for fourth in the field. It was quite a while ago, but Day has two top-five finishes at Ridgewood since 2010.
Brooks Koepka ($10,500) boasts the second-highest odds to win (7.7%), and he’s been outstanding over his past 10 tournaments, averaging a +16.84 Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating. Koepka’s 16.8 birdies per tournament mark over the past 75 weeks leads the field, and his 9% missed-cut rate makes him one of five golfers in the single digits. It’ll be interesting to see where his ownership lands. On one hand, DFS players tend to fade golfers off a victory, but Koepka continues to dominate in loaded fields.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Marc Leishman‘s ($7,800) LT Adj Rd Score of 68.6 is the 11th-best mark in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 25 golfer. Per our Trends tool, golfers with comparable LT Adj Rd Scores and Vegas odds (1.8%) have historically averaged a +4.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He should be a solid value play with his 14.2 LT birdies and low 12% missed-cut rate.
Ian Poulter ($7,600) has comparable metrics to Leishman’s, hitting 67.5% of GIR, averaging 14.2 birdies per tournament, and missing just 13% of cuts over the past 75 weeks. Poulter has also managed to hit 63.8% of fairways within the same time frame. His accuracy off the tee may keep him out of the thick rough and away from the troublesome trees.
Gary Woodland ($7,700) has been solid since his four straight missed cuts from March to May. Since then, he has yet to miss a cut, and he owns three straight top-22 finishes, including a sixth at the PGA Championship. Over the past 75 weeks, Woodland has one of the best LT GIR rates (68.8%), although there are weaknesses that could hold him back, including his putting (30.4 LT PPR) and +1.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Phil Mickelson ($7,300) could be an interesting tournament play (5-8% projected ownership). His 14.5 LT birdies per tournament mark and 15% missed-cut rate rank inside the top 20 in the field, but he’s priced outside the top 35.
I’ve been targeting Austin Cook ($6,800) frequently when he’s priced below $7,000. His finishes haven’t been high, but he’s making cuts, and his price allows a lot of roster flexibility. His -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s is the sixth-best mark in the field, and he’s been excellent at making birdies (averaging 14.4 over the past 75 weeks) and limiting bogeys (7.7 per tournament). Overall, his balanced game is attractive, so he should be able to keep the ball out of trouble. Cook projects for mere 2-4% ownership.
The Bump and Run
Justin Rose‘s ($9,900) back injury appeared fine at the PGA Championship; he finished 19th. He’s a strong play this week with his 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score, 16.5 LT birdies per tournament, and -1.6 average adjusted strokes on par 4s — not to mention his 8% missed-cut rate.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,600) boasts 2.9% odds to win and an exceptional 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score. Golfers with comparable salaries, odds, and LT Adj Rd Scores have historically averaged a +4.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jon Rahm ($9,700) came on strong at the PGA Championship, hitting 75% of GIR and taking home a fourth-place finish. His long-term metrics aren’t far off from DJ’s: He’s averaging -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 15.8 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks. If he can improve his putting (30.5 Recent PPR), he could contend again.
I’m not in love with Zach Johnson‘s $8,700 price tag, but he boasts a 15% missed-cut rate, and he’s finished inside the top 20 in each of his past six tournaments.
Francesco Molinari ($9,500) and Tommy Fleetwood ($9,400) have nearly identical long-term metrics, and they’re both in terrific recent form with Recent Adj Rd Scores under 67.8. With their excellent LT GIR and LT Driving Accuracy (LT DA) marks, I like the idea of pairing them together as mid tier plays and creating a balanced roster.
Let’s not forget Tony Finau ($8,500) even though he almost burned everyone last week. He managed to make the cut but finished just 42nd. Even though he struggled on Thursday, he strung together three straight rounds under 70 after the disastrous start. Accuracy off the tee (54.8% LT DA) seems to be his primary weakness, but he still manages to hit a fair amount of greens (68.5% LT GIR).
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Jason Day
Photo credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
