The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
This week, we have a no-cut event on tap for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. There are currently 73 golfers committed to playing: All of the top-50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will be attending to secure the Gary Player Cup and a $1.7 million first-place prize. Per PGA Tour Media, 53 of the 73 players in the field all have a victory on tour, along with 19 major championship winners.
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Firestone Country Club. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 57.63 DraftKings points and a -12.73 Plus/Minus with a 16.2% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +8.48
- Recent Birdies: +5.04
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +4.85
- Long-Term Eagles: +3.82
- Course Driving Distance: +3.43
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +3.06
- Recent Scrambling: +2.90
- Recent Driving Distance: +2.66
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.43
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +2.06
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +1.91
- Long-Term Birdies: +1.88
- Recent Missed Cuts: +1.71
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +1.50
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.16
- Recent Eagles: +1.06
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.03
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.79
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +0.76
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +0.56
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +0.42
- Course Count: +0.35
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +0.31
Firestone CC is a par-70, 7,400-yard course. No metric back-tested incredibly well, but par-4 scoring checks in with two of the top-three metrics in Plus/Minus. There’s a healthy mix of par-4 lengths at Firestone, with four of them sitting at 420 yards or less and another four at 470-plus yards. Being long off the tee won’t be crucial this week, but it certainly won’t hurt if you’re targeting bombers. Various skillsets have won at Firestone in the past. Of course, given DraftKings scoring, favoring birdie and eagle scorers is important: When the scores get to -15 or -16, pars just won’t cut it in DFS GPPs. Both recent and long-term par-5 scoring back-tested favorably, but there are only two par 5s on the course, with one of them exceeding 660 yards, so the par 5s may not present the best scoring opportunities for the field. Overall, targeting birdie-makers and golfers who excel at par 4s may be the recipe for success this week.
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The Studs
With the stacked field, there are six golfers who cost at least $10,000 or more:
As usual, Dustin Johnson ($11,700) sits atop the field with his 12.5% odds to win. DJ is in play most weeks provided you don’t have to sacrifice too much to get to him. Over the past 75 weeks, he owns top-three marks in average adjusted strokes on par 3s, 4s, and 5s, along with eagle and birdie scoring.
Rory McIlroy ($11,300) is a defending champion here (2014), and he’s historically CRUSHED at Firestone. Since 2010, Rory has just one finish outside of the top 10 (27th in 2013). Justin Rose ($10,700) is another golfer who has an immaculate record at Firestone with his four top-five appearances. Rose is in excellent form with five top-10 finishes in his past five tournaments. He boasts similar metrics to DJ over the past 75 weeks, tying him for a field-best 16.4 birdies per tournament, along with ranking slightly better in par-4 scoring (-1.6 average adjusted strokes).
Tiger Woods ($10,800) has absurd history at World Golf Championship events:
World Golf Championship Wins (PGA Tour Media):
Tiger Woods: 18
Dustin Johnson: 5
Phil Mickelson: 3
Everyone else: 18 pic.twitter.com/R4UiBHqIBO— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) July 31, 2018
Aside from winning WGC events on the reg, Woods has won at Firestone eight (!!) times in his career. More importantly, he is starting to improve after recovering from back surgery. His 68.2 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is the fifth-best mark in this elite field, and his 14.3 birdies per tournament is comparable to both McIlroy’s and Henrik Stenson‘s marks.
On a course where par-4 scoring is crucial, Jordan Spieth ($10,400) should be in consideration: His -2.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s leads the field by almost a full stroke.
Rickie Fowler ($10,000) has a balanced game to succeed just about anywhere. He’s averaged a stellar 15.6 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks, and he ranks inside the top 10 in the field in average adjusted strokes on par 4s. I know what you’re thinking: “But he never wins!” Fowler’s four career wins may be disappointing, but he has a top-10 finish in nearly 30% of his PGA Tour events. Further, Fowler has four top-10 finishes at Firestone in his past four appearances, including five top 10s since 2011.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
A salary of $8,000 is just too cheap for Tony Finau. His 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for the ninth-best mark in the field with the likes of Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, and Jon Rahm, but they’re all $1,400-$1,800 more expensive.
Austin Cook ($7,000) is intriguing if you need the savings. He’s been solid over his past 10 tournaments, averaging a +9.00 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency. Cook has been excellent over the past 75 weeks, averaging 14.5 birdies per tournament, and he’s one of two players in the field to have gained strokes on par 3s, 4s, and 5s within the same time frame. In fact, Cook’s -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s is the fifth-best mark in the field.
Charley Hoffman ($7,500) is in terrific form with his 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score. Outside of his 29th-place finish at the Canadian Open, Hoffman owned four straight top-20 finishes. His 13.9 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks is among the best marks between golfers in his price range, although his +0.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s leaves much to be desired. That said, over his past four tournaments, Hoffman has looked better, averaging -2.8 average adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Byeong-Hun An‘s ($7,400) long-term metrics aren’t too impressive, but over the past six weeks he’s averaging 16.7 birdies per tournament while hitting 68.5% of GIR. Maybe he can carry the momentum of his second-place finish at the Canadian Open into this tournament.
The Bump and Run
Francesco Molinari ($9,400) should be in consideration with his ridiculous form. Over his past six tournaments, he owns three wins and two second-place finishes. Over his past 10 tournaments, he’s averaging a +26.41 Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. The days of rostering Molinari at $7,500 every week are long gone.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) is one of the best drivers and ball-strikers on tour, evidenced by his 71.1% LT GIR, 299.9-yard Long-Term Driving Distance, and 67.7% Long-Term Driving Accuracy. Fleetwood is averaging a robust 14.7 birdies per tournament, and he’s been steady on par 4s with his -0.3 average adjusted strokes over the past 75 weeks.
Jon Rahm ($9,600) is intriguing since his long-term metrics look comparable to DJ’s. He ranks fourth in the field in par-4 scoring, sixth in par-5 scoring, and fourth in birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Zach Johnson ($8,100) finished second at Firestone last year, and since 2011 he has four top-10 finishes to his name at Firestone CC. He enters this tournament in solid recent form with four straight top 20s.
Paul Casey ($8,600) possesses the second-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.0), trailing only DJ.
Brooks Koepka ($8,900) may go low owned in this tournament after missing the cut at the Canadian Open last week. His 16.0 birdies per tournament mark over the past 75 weeks trails just Rose and DJ. He has finished 17th and sixth in his two appearances at Firestone.
Justin Thomas ($8,800) is intriguing considering he hasn’t been priced below $10,000 since September 2017. He’s struggled of late, averaging a -2.28 Plus/Minus with 40% Consistency over his past 10 tournaments. That said, with his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score and -0.9 average adjusted strokes on par 4s, he’s worthy of a look at a significant discount.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Tiger Woods
Photo credit: Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports
