The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a full-field event in which each of the 154 players is paired with an amateur partner for the first three rounds held at three different courses. Everybody gets three rounds of action, but only the top 60 players and ties are allowed to return to Pebble Beach for Sunday’s finale.
The Course
Pebble Beach Golf Links, a 6,816-yard Par 72 course, hosts two of the four rounds, including the important final round of the tournament. All golfers also get a round at Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Peninsula before the cut is made after the third round.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable here at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at the three courses in the Pebble Beach rotation. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 54.14 DraftKings points and a +5.97 Plus/Minus with a 52.4 percent Consistency Rating.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +6.95 with 56.2 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation (GIR): +6.94 with 58.3 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +8.16 with 56.6 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): +3.20 with 43.8 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Putts per Round (Adj PPR): +6.85 with 52.8 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +7.80 with 55.2 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +7.90 with 57.8 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +7.77 with 57.1 percent Consistency
- Recent GIR: +7.82 with 57.6 percent Consistency
- Recent DD: +6.53 with 53.5 percent Consistency
- Recent DA: +2.01 with 39.3 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj PPR: +5.30 with 53.0 percent Consistency
- Recent SC: +6.52 with 54.5 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +6.70 with 56.0 percent Consistency
Key metrics to focus on: Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, Scrambling and LT Adj Bird Average. If the weather forecast holds, DD could be even more important with sloppy and wet conditions. Although it seems obvious, focusing on birdies in a 54-hole cut tournament is a sharp move.
Best DFS Plays at 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings pricing)
On the top of the pricing this week, Dustin Johnson ($11,400 DraftKings; $12,400 FanDuel), and Matt Kuchar ($10,000 DraftKings; $11,400 FanDuel) are catching Hump’s attention.
Since missing the cut here in 2013, Johnson has finished second twice, third, fourth, and 41st at this tournament. Plus he’s coming off a win in Saudi Arabia, where he didn’t shoot a single round worse than 68. Johnson’s 67.4 LT Adj Rd Score and massive 18.3 LT Adj Bird Avg both lead the field, and his 68.7 Course Adj Rd Score is tied for fourth among golfers with at least five starts here.
All Kuchar has done in four starts this season is win twice, notch a top-five finish last week and a top-20 finish three weeks ago, so it’s safe to say he’s in pretty good form: His 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score unsurprisingly leads the field. Kuuuuuuuuch’s 75.5 Recent GIR percentage and 72.1 Recent SC percentage both rank inside the top 10 of the field. He has scored fewer than 106 DraftKings points in only one tournament in 2019, and his average of 125.7 DraftKings points over the past month leads the field by a comfortable margin. His course history is not great, which may suppress his potential ownership this week. Kuchar is Hump’s favorite guaranteed prize pool play among the $10,000-plus golfers this week.
$9,000-$9,900
Chez Reavie ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) is another dude who is locked in right now with two top-five finishes in his past three starts and no finish worse than 28th in 2019. Reavie’s 67.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for third in the field, his 72.4 Recent SC percentage ranks eighth and his 18.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for 10th among golfers with at least two starts over the past six weeks. Reavie is also absolutely lighting up the Strokes Gained – Ball Striking metric right now.
Although we currently have Reavie projected at 17-20% ownership in our models, Hump would not be shocked to see him end up as the highest-owned player of the week, so I prefer to lock him into cash lineups.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800 DraftKings, $11,000) ranks fourth in the field with his 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score, and his 14.9 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 11th. Cantlay is coming off a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago, but he has missed only two cuts in his past 18 starts.
$8,000-$8,900
You love Im, Hump loves Im, it’s Sungjae Im ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel), who ranks 13th in the field with his 71.2 LT GIR percentage and is tied for 11th with his 14.9 LT Adj Bird Avg. Even more impressive are his recent metrics: He is tied for eighth with his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score, and his 17.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for 13th among golfers with at least three starts the past six weeks.
Cameron Champ ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) is interesting because he can absolutely smash the ball: His 332.5-yard LT DD leads the field by a good margin. Additionally, Champ’s 72.2 LT GIR percentage is tied for sixth. With two missed cuts and a 62nd-place finish in his last three starts, the public is off the Champ train so this could be a great week to jump on board at low ownership.
$7,000-$7,900
Talor Gooch ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) is tied for 11th in the field with his 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score, and his 74.0 Recent GIR percentage ranks 14th among golfers with at least two starts over the past six weeks. Gooch had fourth- and third-place finishes in two straight starts before missing the cut at last week’s Waste Management Open.
Michael Thompson ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) has scored 109 and 89.5 DraftKings points in his past two starts while shooting six rounds of 69 or better.
$6,900 and Below
Hank Lebioda ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) is a dude Hump has had his eye on these past few weeks. The 25-year-old former ACC Player of the Year out of Florida State has accumulated an impressive 69.3 Recent Adj Rd Score and 18.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg in three starts on the PGA Tour in 2019.
Also, Ho Sung Choi ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) because of this:
Swing your swing.
Ho Sung Choi makes his PGA TOUR debut @ATTProAm this week and he brings an impressive golf resume with him. pic.twitter.com/WXRBrw7fAL
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 5, 2019
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
It’s a great time to hop back on the Phil Mickelson ($9,600 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) train coming off a brutal missed cut at last week’s Waste Management Open. Phil has played this event at Pebble Beach 22 times with four wins, the most recent one coming in 2012. A staggering 25.5% of Mickelson’s 43 PGA Tour wins have come in the great state of California, where he’s also logged seven runner-up finishes, including two here in the past three years.
Mickelson’s 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth in the field, and his excellent 60.1 LT SC percentage undoubtedly helps him stay in contention on Pebble’s tiny greens. Additionally, in an event where golfers are guaranteed three rounds, DraftKings scoring is extremely important, and Phil’s 15.9 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks sixth in the field.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Phil Mickelson
