The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
After a few lackluster fields, there’s a star-studded tournament on deck with the HSBC Champions. This tournament is another 78-player, no-cut event.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at Sheshan International, the home of this week’s tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 63.63 DraftKings points and a -3.59 Plus/Minus with a 35.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +5.13
- Recent Putts Per Round: +3.28
- Recent Bogeys: +2.24
- Recent Scrambling: +1.92
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +1.84
- Long-Term Birdies: +1.79
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +1.52
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.38
- Recent Missed Cuts: +1.14
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +0.91
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +0.81
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +0.62
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +0.60
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +0.52
- Recent Birdies: +0.48
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +0.29
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.23
- Recent Driving Distance: +0.09
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +0.03
Sheshan International is a par-72, 7,261-yard course that’s littered with hazards, with water coming into play on nearly half the holes. Distance and/or accuracy could both be beneficial since there are reachable par-5s in two and long, challenging par-3s and 4s. But golfers will also need to hit their spots because of the narrow fairways and thick rough. Spraying it off the tee could be detrimental on this course.
All types of players have won here in the past such as Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose and Francesco Molinari. I’ll take a fairly simple, balanced approach this week, looking at birdie-makers and par-3, par-4 and par-5 scorers, while factoring in both distance and accuracy. That said, my emphasis will be on golfers who excel at par-5s.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Justin Rose ($11,200), and Brooks Koepka ($11,000) are the three golfers who check in with salaries of at least $11,000. Because this is a no-cut event, rostering at least one of these golfers will be my focus in cash games while mixing them up in GPPs. I’ll likely take the incredibly scientific approach of choosing whichever golfer fits after I work from the lowest salary up during roster construction for cash games.
All three are interchangeable because they’re all averaging at least 16.5 birdies per tournament and at least -5.0 adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past 75 weeks. If forced to choose, I’d lean DJ or Rose over Koepka since they’ve fared better on par-4s, averaging -2.0 adjusted strokes on them, compared to -0.9 for Koepka. Additionally, Rose’s and DJ’s Long-Term and Recent GIR marks top Koepka’s.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Eddie Pepperell ($7,300) has been crushing on the Euro Tour of late with four top-10 finishes since late August, and he’s coming off a win at the British Masters. Additionally, his -1.5 adjusted stokes on par-4s over the past 75 weeks is the fourth-best mark in the field. The biggest knock on his game is his 284-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), but the rest is good enough to compete.
Andrew Putnam ($7,000) has been averaging 7.7 bogeys per tournament, the third-lowest mark in the field. He’s one of five golfers who has gained strokes on par-3s, -4s, and -5s over the past 75 weeks. His -3.6 adjusted strokes on par-5s is nothing to write home about, but his -0.2 adjusted strokes on par-3s and -1.0 adjusted strokes on par-4s are both top-six marks in the field.
Kyle Stanley ($7,600), Emiliano Grillo ($7,500), and Keegan Bradley ($7,500) all have similar LT metrics, hitting around 69% of GIR and 67% to 70% of fairways. They have similar win equity as well. If forced to choose one, I’d prefer Bradley since he leads the group in LT birdies and adjusted strokes on par-5s.
The Bump and Run
Paul Casey ($9,200): He has the fourth-best LT Adj Rd Score but costs just $9,200. Casey’s also averaging 14.9 birdies per tournament and -5.1 adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past 75 weeks.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500): Over the past 75 weeks, Fleetwood has hit 66.2% of fairways while sporting a solid 302.8-yard LT DD and hitting 72.6% of GIR. Additionally, his -5.4 average adjusted strokes on par-5s is the sixth-best mark in the field. He enters this tournament with a terrific 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score.
Tony Finau ($9,900): He’s averaging -5.5 adjusted strokes on par-5s and 15.8 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks; both marks are inside the top eight. Finau put together an 11th-place finish in his first outing at this tournament last season.
Francesco Molinari ($9,800): He’s another golfer who should avoid trouble off the tee with his 65.6% LT DA. Molinari has four top-25 finishes at this course, including a victory in 2010.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,800): He’s difficult not to mention considering his 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par-5s. Cantlay owns the seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score but 15th-highest salary.
Under $7,000
Charley Hoffman ($6,900): He has the 14th-best LT Adj Rd Score, but he’s priced all the way down as the 42nd-most expensive golfer. The main issues with Hoffman are his +1.2 adjusted strokes on par-3s and 9.8 bogeys per tournament, but he’s too cheap for his LT Adj Rd Score and there’s less risk in rostering him since it’s a no-cut event.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Dustin Johnson
Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
