The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Tour Championship is here, and we have 30 of the top golfers in the world competing in a no-cut event.
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at East Lake Golf Club. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 69.51 DraftKings points and a -2.28 Plus/Minus with a 43.1% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +6.68
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +6.53
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +4.73
- Long-Term Eagles: +1.47
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +1.45
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +1.26
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +0.71
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +0.64
- Recent Bogeys: +0.27
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +0.22
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +0.12
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.07
East Lake Golf Club is a par-70, 7,385-yard golf course depending on pin locations. The first thing that stands out is that driving accuracy back-tested so well. Historically, the fairways at East Lake have been quite difficult to hit. You can still get out of the rough here, but placement off the tee will be incredibly helpful. That said, bombers can still have success, as Rory McIlroy demonstrated with a win in 2016.
With East Lake hosting the Tour Championship since 2004, there’s no shortage of course history. I won’t completely discount bombers this week, but I’ll be paying special attention to accurate golfers and guys who hit greens. Overall, it’ll be difficult to build a bad lineup with a 30-player field with some of the best golfers in the world competing.
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The Studs
Justin Rose ($11,400) is a rare golfer with both power (305.6 Long-Term Driving Distance) and accuracy (63.3% Long-Term Driving Accuracy). Not to mention his 70.5% Long-Term GIR trails only Tommy Fleetwood‘s mark in this field. Rose is the most-expensive golfer this week, but he’s probably worth it, considering he ranks in the top three in the field in long-term birdies per tournament and average adjusted strokes on par-4s (-1.8) and par-5s (-5.4). He’s finished no worse than 10th at this course since 2012.
Justin Thomas ($10,300) is in tremendous form of late, boasting a 67.1 Recent Adj Round Score while hitting 70.1% of GIR in the process. Thomas is no stranger to East Lake, finishing second and sixth over his only two appearances.
Dustin Johnson ($11,300): He’s Dustin Johnson…
All kidding aside, it’s never a bad idea to have exposure to DJ. His 24th-place finish at the BMW was disappointing, but he hit 83.3% of GIR and dominated par-4s (-9.0 average adjusted strokes). Overall, his recent form is solid: His 20.3 birdies per tournament over the past six weeks is the second-highest mark in the field, trailing just Tony Finau‘s.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,100) boasts a solid 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score but is incredibly cheap in this loaded field. He’s finished outside of the top 20 in his past two tournaments, and he’s played at East Lake for the Tour Championship only once (20th-place finish). Still, over the past six weeks, Cantlay has hit 75.7% of GIR and 67.9% of fairways. The only thing holding him back is his putter (30.2 recent putts per round).
Webb Simpson ($7,500) had a nice sixth-place finish at the BMW Championship and has dominated GIR (74.4%) over the past six weeks. Simpson is likely a safe play considering his ability to hit GIR and fairways (64.9% LT DA), and his 28.5 PPR over the past 75 weeks is a top-five mark in the field.
Billy Horschel ($7,300) has an excellent 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 80.2% of GIR and 71.9% of fairways in the process. Horschel now has back-to-back third-place finishes in his past two tournaments, and he’s played well at East Lake in his two appearances, finishing first and seventh.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900) doesn’t have any course history here, but he hits GIR (72.2% over the past 75 weeks) and fairways (66.4% LT DA) with the best of them. What more do you want?
The Bump and Run
Tony Finau ($8,600): His 67.0 Recent Adj Rd score is tied for the second-best mark in the field, and his 20.5 birdies per tournament within the same time frame leads the whole field.
Rickie Fowler ($9,100): He’s seemingly bounced back from his oblique injury, finishing in the top 17 in each of his past three tournaments, including an eighth at the BMW Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800): He’s finally found his form, posting a 67.5 Recent Adjusted Score and finishing 15th or better in his past four tournaments. Matsuyama’s 19.4 recent birdies per tournament is the third-best mark in the field.
Francesco Molinari ($8,200): A course in which accuracy matters seems like the place to roll out Molinari. His absurd 78.6% Recent DA leads the field, and he ranks inside the top four in both LT GIR (69.5%) and LT DA (66.4%).
Under $7,000
Paul Casey ($6,800): He hasn’t finished any worse than fifth at East Lake in his four appearances, but his recent form isn’t great (70.0 Recent Adj Rd Score).
Keegan Bradley ($6,200): He’s $200 from being the cheapest golfer on this slate, and he has a nose for the fairway, evidenced by his 67.9% LT DA and 70.1% Recent DA.
Kyle Stanley ($6,100): His 70.3% LT DA leads the entire field.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Justin Rose
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
