The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
After a short stint in Asia, the PGA Tour will head back to the United States to play in Las Vegas. It’s a relatively solid field with Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth all taking part. The cut will come back into play this week as well with the top 70 and ties all making it to Day 3.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at TPC Summerlin, the home of this week’s tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 55.35 DraftKings points and a +1.10 Plus/Minus with a 42.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Bogeys: +6.57
- Recent Bogeys: +2.91
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +2.20
- Recent Scrambling: +2.19
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.70
- Recent Putts Per Round: +1.38
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +1.18
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.17
- Recent Driving Distance: +0.47
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +0.43
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +0.40
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +0.32
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.03
TPC Summerlin is a par-71, 7,255-yard course that isn’t all that difficult. Bogey avoidance back-tested the strongest among our metrics, but outside of that, none of them seems too crucial. Summerlin will play pretty easily unless the wind starts to pick up, and, for now, the wind looks manageable at around 5 mph to 9 mph throughout the weekend. The wind picked up last year, and Patrick Cantlay won the tournament at -9; otherwise, winning scores have been around -16 or better.
Because of the altitude in Las Vegas, distance won’t be a metric I’ll heavily weight. Additionally, eight of the par-4s check in at shorter than 450 yards, so Greens in Regulation and par-4 scoring will top my list of metrics to use. Last but not least, it never hurts to target excellent birdie-makers.
The Studs
As usual, it’s easy to make a case for all of the golfers priced $10,000 or above:
- Rickie Fowler ($11,400)
- Tony Finau ($11,300)
- Jordan Spieth ($11,000)
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,800)
- Webb Simpson ($10,300)
If I am building around one guy from this range, it’s Simpson. Not only is he the cheapest of this group, but his 68.4 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is comparable to all of them. Furthermore, his -1.8 adjusted strokes on par-4s trail only Spieth’s in this range, and his 7% missed-cut rate is among the best in the field. And at 28.5 Putts Per Round (PPR) over the past 75 weeks, Simpson is the best putter in this group. It also doesn’t hurt that he hasn’t missed a cut at this course since 2009.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Austin Cook ($7,800) is appealing with his balanced game. His 15.0 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks is a top-10 mark in the field, and he’s been able to gain strokes on par -3s, -4s and -5s over the same time frame. Historically, golfers with comparable birdie metrics have averaged a +4.19 Plus/Minus at TPC Summerlin, good for 3.09 points above the baseline Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Denny McCarthy ($7,900) has been a solid bogey avoider, averaging just 7.2 per tournament over the past 75 weeks. He’s one of a handful of golfers in the field with comparable bogey metrics who is averaging more than 13.3 birdies per tournament.
Sam Ryder (7,600) is one of 15 golfers in the field who has at least five Pro Trends. He should find plenty of greens this week, hitting 71.4% of them over the past 75 weeks. His metrics are comparable to McCarthy’s, as he averages 13.2 birdies and just 7.3 bogeys per tournament.
Kevin Tway‘s ($7,300) metrics don’t jump off the page. However, his 13.9 birdies per tournament are solid, and his 19% missed-cut rate is among the best in this price range. According to the PGA Correlation Matrix, missed-cut rate has a strong correlation to fantasy points.
The Bump and Run
Patrick Cantlay ($9,900): He has the fifth-best LT Adj Rd Score, but he’s still priced under $10,000. Overall, Cantlay is always a safe play with his absurdly low 6% missed-cut rate. He might end up as one of the higher owned golfers on the slate given he’s the defending champion.
Gary Woodland ($9,700): His 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is excellent, and Woodland is coming off a second- and fifth-place finish over his past two tournaments.
Chesson Hadley ($9,300): He’s been sporadic in his play of late, but his long-term form looks great, as he’s averaged 14.3 birdies and just 7.7 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks. Moreover, Hadley has been able to gain strokes on par-3s, -4s and -5s over the same time frame.
Cameron Champ ($9,200): I’m not paying much attention to driving distance this week, but Champ’s absurd 335.8-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) had to be noted. Not only does he mash the ball, but he can hit GIR, evidenced by his 72% LT GIR. Champ could easily contend at Summerlin considering he’s averaging 0.6 eagles, 14.2 birdies and 7.9 bogeys per tournament. In addition, he should be able to take full advantage of the par-5s here since he’s averaging -5.5 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks. Considering the altitude and his power, it shouldn’t be difficult for him to hit some of these par-5s in two. The 15th hole is also a 341-yard drivable par-4.
Under $7,000
Nick Hardy ($6,300): The 22-year-old just made his PGA Tour debut in June, so he has a small sample size of results. However, through nine tournaments, he’s averaging 16.0 birdies, 7.3 bogeys and -1.7 adjusted strokes on par-4s. Additionally, he’s hit 74.3% of GIR in those nine tournaments while missing just 11% of cuts.
Corey Conners ($6,600): He can be volatile with his high 33% missed-cut rate and 30.4 LT PPR, but he has hit 73% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. If Conners can build off his second-place finish at Sanderson last week, during which he averaged just 28 PPR, he might be able to at least make the cut.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Webb Simpson
Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
