The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
With the PGA Tour Championship now over, we’re graced with the Safeway Open and the start of the 2018-19 season.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Silverado Resort, the home of this week’s tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 51.22 DraftKings points and a +2.75 Plus/Minus with a 50.2% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +9.83
- Recent Tournament Count: +9.50
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +6.52
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +6.42
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +6.27
- Long-Term Birdies: +5.91
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +4.95
- Recent Scrambling: +4.73
- Recent Bogeys: +4.26
- Recent Eagles: +4.16
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +3.52
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.90
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.90
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +2.15
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +2.13
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +1.55
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.34
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +1.28
Silverado is a par-72, 7,166-yard course. The par-5s are on the shorter side, all checking in at 575 yards or shorter. Additionally, two of the four par-3s are 190 yards or shorter. The greens at Silverado can be challenging, so scrambling could be more important. Overall, this week seems pretty straightforward: Target golfers who excel at birdie-making and par-5 and par-4 scoring.
The Studs
Patrick Cantlay ($11,600) checks in with the highest salary, highest odds (7.7%) and best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) at 68.5. According to the PGA Correlation Matrix, Odds Score and LT Adj Rd Score are highly correlated with fantasy points. Cantlay is typically a safe bet to make the cut with his absurd 6% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks. He will likely be the first golfer in my cash-game builds.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,300) is averaging a +21.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past month, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the St. Jude Classic in June. He can mash the ball (311.7-yard LT Driving Distance), and he excels at hitting greens (72% LT GIR). Thus, it’s no surprise that Niemann is one of the best birdie-makers in the field, averaging 14.5 per tournament and -1.4 average adjusted strokes on par-4s over the past 75 weeks.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,000) doesn’t stand out in some of the top back-tested metrics above, but his 67.4% LT GIR, 68.1 LT Driving Accuracy (DA), and 13.6 birdies per tournament are solid marks. Additionally, over his past three tournaments, Grillo has gained strokes on par-3s, 4s and 5s. He’s also played well at Silverado over his past three appearances, including winning the tournament in 2015.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Jamie Lovemark‘s ($7,700) 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is the seventh-best mark in the field, but he’s priced fairly low. He’s averaging -4.2 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past 75 weeks, and while his best finish at Silverado is 20th, Lovemark has made the cut in all three appearances since 2015.
Lucas Glover ($7,100) is coming off a second-place finish at the Web.com Championship, where he averaged an absurd -11 average adjusted strokes on par-4s. Overall, his recent form looks great: He’s hit 76% of GIR and averaged 15.5 birdies per tournament over the past six weeks.
Kramer Hickok‘s ($7,400) -5.3 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past 75 weeks is the fourth-best mark in the field, and he’s an excellent scrambler, evidenced by his 65.5% LT rate. Furthermore, he’s decently long off the tee (303-yard LT DD), and he can hit fairways (70.1% LT DA) and greens (69.6% LT GIR). Aside from his long-term form, Hickok is playing well of late, averaging 16.5 birdies per tournament and -4.5 average adjusted strokes on par-4s.
Nick Watney ($7,200) boasts an excellent 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score and -5.5 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past six weeks. Additionally, his 20% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks is a top-10 mark in the field.
Adam Schenk ($7,000) has made four straight cuts, including three top-10 finishes. In that time frame, Schenk is averaging absurd -3.8, -2.0, and -5.5 average adjusted strokes on par-3s, 4s and 5s.
The Bump and Run
Denny McCarthy ($9,700): He’s running hot over his past four tournaments with three top-10 finishes, including winning the Web.com Championship. During those outings, McCarthy averaged a stellar 18 birdies per tournament.
Harold Varner III ($8,300): He’s averaging a +33.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past month, and he’s made all three cuts at Silverado since 2015. The only concern is his +2.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks.
Cameron Champ ($7,100): He MASHES the ball (336.2-yard LT DD) and averages -5.3 average adjusted strokes on par-5s. He’s a volatile option, however, averaging a robust 30.1 putts per round with a 39% missed-cut rate.
Beau Hossler ($9,100): He’s one of nine golfers to average at least 14 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks, and his 18% missed-cut rate over the same time frame is the sixth-best mark in the field.
Under $7,000
Carlos Ortiz ($6,800): Over the past 75 weeks, he’s hit 71.1% of GIR and missed just 18% of cuts. His 15.4 birdies per tournament leads the field. Additionally, his -5.6 average adjusted strokes on par-5s leads everyone in the field not named Fred Couples.
Brandon Harkins ($6,900): He can be volatile (36% missed-cut rate), but he does well on par-5s (-4.6 average adjusted strokes). He’s averaged 13.6 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Patrick Cantlay
Photo credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
