The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The CJ Cup brings another 78-player, no-cut event. The field will be slightly stronger than last week with Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama all participating.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at The Club at Nine Bridges, the home of this week’s tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 58.99 DraftKings points and a -11.59 Plus/Minus with an 18.7% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Putts Per Round: +7.06
- Long-Term Eagles: +6.31
- Recent Scrambling: +6.11
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +4.91
- Recent Bogeys: +4.71
- Long-Term Scrambling: +4.30
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +4.24
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +3.43
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +3.29
- Long-Term Birdies: +3.20
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.11
- Recent Driving Distance: +2.80
- Long-Term Bogies: +2.62
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.47
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +1.74
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.62
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +1.57
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +1.50
- Recent Birdies: +1.35
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +1.33
- Recent Missed Cuts: +1.19
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +0.37
The primary aspect about this course that stands out is how difficult it plays, with golfers averaging just 58.99 DraftKings points per tournament here with a -11.59 average Plus/Minus, which is the 11th-lowest mark in our Trends database.
Overall, this course doesn’t seem to reward distance as much as other venues, so the main traits I’ll be paying attention to are par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance, along with birdie or better scoring. Putting can also be a streaky statistic, but both recent and long-term putts per round (PPR) backtested highly.
The Studs
At the time of writing, Justin Thomas ($11,600), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400), and Brooke Koepka ($11,200) are all projected for the highest ownership on the slate (17-20%), with Jason Day ($10,600) and Marc Leishman ($10,200) just behind them (13-16%). Thomas and Matsuyama lead the slate with eight Pro Trends.
Overall, I’d expect Thomas to be one of the highest owned on the slate again (50.4% last week) after he surged in the final round to shoot a 64 and finish fifth. Additionally, Thomas won this tournament last year, so it’s not surprising his 15.4% odds to win leads the slate.
Paying up for Thomas in cash games isn’t too difficult with some of the solid plays in the mid-to-low price range, and that’s my preferred strategy with his 16.1 birdies per tournament and field-best -1.8 adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks. Since it’s another no-cut event, there’s less risk in fielding a stars-and-scrubs lineup.
Another alternative is taking the $1,200 discount and going to Matsuyama, whose 67.2 recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) leads the field. Matsuyama’s 8.5 bogeys per tournament is tied with Thomas but trounces Day and Leishman by more than 1.1 strokes over the past 75 weeks. Matsuyama presently sits atop the Colin Davy Player Model.
Koepka is an appealing tournament option with his averages of 0.6 eagles, 16.6 birdies per tournament and stellar 28.5 putts per round over the past 75 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Koepka carry low(ish) ownership after he burned people at the Tour Championship with high 30.5% ownership.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Chez Reavie ($7,000): He shouldn’t find himself in trouble too often, given he’s found the fairway on 71.7% of drives over the past 75 weeks. Moreover, Reavie averages just 7.9 bogeys per tournament and -0.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s. Both marks are top 13 in the field.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,600): His -1.2 adjusted strokes on par 4s ranks third in the field, and he’s one of three golfers to average more than 14 birdies and fewer than 8.0 bogies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Austin Cook ($7,400): His 7.9 bogeys per tournament aren’t surprising as he leads the field with a 64.1% Long-Term Scrambling rate. Additionally, his 15.0 birdies per tournament and -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s rank inside the top four. Historically, golfers with comparable Vegas odds (1.0%) and metrics have averaged a +1.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Keith Mitchell ($7,100): His 0.6 eagles per tournament are comparable to Thomas, Matsuyama and Koepka this week. Furthermore, Mitchell boasts a solid 14.2 birdies per tournament: Historically, golfers with comparable metrics have averaged a +2.59 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The Bump and Run
Paul Casey ($9,900): His 68.3 Long-Term Adj Rd Score is the third-best mark in the field, and he owns the sixth-best odds to win. Casey is one of seven golfers who has averaged at least 15.0 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Sun-jae Im ($8,000): His 15.0 birdies per tournament, -0.9 adjusted strokes on par 4s, and -5.5 adjusted strokes on par 5s are all strong marks, and he’s currently the fifth-highest rated golfer in Colin Davy’s Model.
Kevin Na ($8,100): He owns an excellent 68.2 recent Adj Rd Score, and his 28.4 long-term putts per round is the third-best mark in the field.
Tyrell Hatton ($9,500): He boasts a solid 67.9 recent Adj Rd Score, and he’s one of the few golfers in the field who is averaging less than 8.0 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks. Hatton presently owns five Pro Trends this week.
Gary Woodland ($9,700): He has absurd recent form with his 67.4 Adj Rd Score over his past three tournaments, finishing 12th or better in all of them. Over that timeframe, he’s averaging 19.3 birdies per tournament and -4.7 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Under $7,000
The sub-$7,000 price range on DraftKings doesn’t present many appealing opportunities this week, but there is one golfer who piques my interest for salary relief.
Andrew Putnam ($6,700): His 7.7 bogeys per tournament and -1.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s are top five marks in the field, and he’s projected for just 2-4% ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Austin Cook
Photo credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
