The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The golfers are headed to Malaysia this week for the CIMB Classic. The second event of the 2018-19 PGA Tour season will feature another relatively weak field in a no-cut event.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Kuala Lumpur, the home of this week’s tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 77.39 DraftKings points and a +8.07 Plus/Minus with a 64.7% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Eagles: +9.64
- Recent Bogeys: +7.28
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +5.17
- Long-Term Birdies: +4.79
- Recent Scrambling: +4.72
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +4.42
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +4.25
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +3.89
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +3.42
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.09
- Recent Driving Distance: +2.84
- Long-Term Scrambling: +2.37
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +2.22
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +2.10
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.10
- Recent Putts Per Round: +1.66
- Long-Term Eagles: +1.46
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +1.23
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +1.21
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.13
Kuala Lumpur is a rather short par-72, 7,005-yard course. There are four par-5s, two of which are 520 yards or shorter, three par-4s under 390 yards and two par-3s that run fewer than 200. Overall, I’d expect scores to be low this week since this course ranked as one of the easier courses on tour last year, and it’s yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to golfers. Pat Perez won this event last year, shooting an absurd 24-under par.
The greens here are small, which may give golfers trouble if they miss their approach shots. Knowing this, it’s not surprising to see that Scrambling and Greens in Regulation both back-tested well among our metrics. Because this a no-cut event, a stars-and-scrubs approach could be implemented without the fear of the dart throws being eliminated. An abundance of metrics back-tested well for this course, but I’ll be paying attention to birdie-scoring the most.
The Studs
Justin Thomas ($11,700) checks in with massive 18.2% odds to win this tournament: His odds are nearly three times larger than those of the next closest golfer. Is he worth paying for, though? Short answer, yes. Long answer… nobody in this field shares Thomas’ skill set. His 67.9 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) trounces everyone else’s. Paul Casey and Marc Leishman are the only golfers in the field whose LT Adj Rd Scores are within even a stroke.
Thomas’ Long-Term Birdies (LT Birdies), Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), Par-4 Scoring and Par-5 Scoring all rank as top-three marks in the field. Additionally, golfers with comparable odds have been worth paying up for, as they’ve averaged a +5.86 Plus/Minus and 58.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). It also doesn’t hurt that Thomas owns the course record here (61).
Among the other golfers who cost $10,000 or more, I won’t be looking at them outside of tournaments. My cash-game rosters will be starting with Thomas.
Ryan Moore ($10,900), Billy Horschel ($10,700), Xander Schauffele ($10,400) and Paul Casey ($10,200) have shown success here in the past. Moore has won at Kuala Lumpur twice and hasn’t finished worse than 17th. He’s also coming off a second-place finish at the Safeway Open. Horschel’s coming off three top-three finishes since August, but his and Moore’s LT Birdies marks pale in comparison to the marks of Schauffele and Casey. Moore’s +1.1 average adjusted strokes on par-4s leaves much to be desired, but he’s averaged a solid -6.5 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past six weeks.
The greens at Kuala were replaced with Bermuda over Paspalum this year, and Schauffele has historically lost strokes putting on Bermuda. Overall, outside of Thomas, this price range doesn’t get me excited. One way to be contrarian in tournaments could be to overexpose yourself to Thomas and lock him into 100% of lineups.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Chez Reavie ($7,600) owns the 11th-best Adj Rd Score, but he’s priced as just the No. 27 golfer. He doesn’t have many metrics that jump off the page, but he does boast decent win equity. Historically, golfers with comparable odds at this course have averaged a Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating that exceed the baseline by +5.25 points and Consistency Rating by 26.2%.
Other golfers with similar win equity (per Vegas) are Beau Hossler ($7,800), Peter Uihlein ($7,700) and Charles Howell III ($7,900). Hossler stands out in this group because his 14.0 LT Birdies is a top-10 mark in the field. Uihlein is coming off a missed cut at Safeway, but he boasts a stellar -4.4 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over the past 75 weeks, and his 2% odds leads this group.
Sam Ryder ($7,700) is coming off a fourth-place finish at Safeway and leads the field with his 71.1% LT GIR and -0.4 average adjusted strokes on par-3s. Moreover, he’s averaging just 7.1 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Austin Cook, who is all the way down at $7,100, is intriguing considering the balanced nature of his game. His 14.6 birdies per tournament is the seventh-best mark in the field, and his -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par-4s ranks inside the top three.
The Bump and Run
Gary Woodland ($9,700): His 312.7-yard LT DD is one of the longest marks in the field, and he’s in excellent recent form, sporting a 76.5 Recent Adj Rd Score. He and Thomas are presently the only golfers with projected ownership over 17% in large-field tournaments.
Marc Leishman ($9,800): His 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score is the third-best mark in the field, and he’s averaged an exceptional 14.6 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($9,300): He’s hit 77.1% of GIR and averaged 17.1 birdies per tournament over the past six weeks. RCB also has back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Kuala Lumpur.
Jason Kokrak ($7,100): He’s averaging a poor 30 putts per round, but he does boast an excellent 67.9 recent Adj Rd Score. He’s averaging a +15.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 tournaments.
Under $7,000
Keith Mitchell ($6,900): He leads the field with his 316.7-yard LT DD, and his 0.6 eagles per tournament over the past six weeks is the fourth-best mark. Golfers at this course with a comparable LT DD have historically averaged a +12.56 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Scott Vincent ($6,500): Since there’s no cut this week, Vincent is intriguing with his -4.8 average adjusted strokes on par-5s and 70% GIR mark over the past 75 weeks. Additionally, he’s tied with Thomas for a field-best eight Pro Trends.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Justin Thomas
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
