The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA season is close to being over. On tap next is the BMW Championship, which is a no-cut event with a smaller field.
The Course
This tournament will be played at Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, Pennsylvania. AGC is a par-70, 7,267-yard golf course depending on the day. Unfortunately, we don’t have any data in the FantasyLabs Trends database for this course since it lasted hosted a tournament in 2011.
On the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Drew Stoltz mentioned this course doesn’t favor any particular skill set but will reward players who just play good golf. Overall, it’ll be difficult to construct a poor roster this week given the overall strength of this condensed field, so the leverage from your team will come from trying to project ownership in tournaments.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,600) is always in consideration given he’s the best golfer in the world. The only constraints with DJ is his high salary. That said, the $7,000-$8,000 price range provides plenty of options to use to build around DJ. His Long-Term (67.7) and Recent (66.9) Adjusted Round Sores both rank in the top two in the field.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Justin Rose ($11,200) carry heavy ownership after he finished second last week and he’s won at this course before back in 2010. He’s one of the best birdie makers on tour, averaging 16.4 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Justin Thomas ($10,700) is an attractive option given his discount. He’s $900 cheaper than DJ, and his tag dropped $700 after the Dell Technologies Championship last week. Thomas leads the field in Long-Term Eagles and his -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks is the fourth-best mark in the field. His 13-16% Projected Ownership is among the lowest of the top-priced golfers, but he’s the third-highest rated golfer in the Colin Davy Player Model.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Henrik Stenson ($7,600) boasts a 68.7 LT Adj Rd Score, and he’s the cheapest he’s ever been all PGA season. After his 69th-place finish last week, his price decreased by $1,000. He leads the field over the past 75 weeks with 71.6% of GIR hit, but he’ll need his putter to catch fire to start contending. His 30.9 Putts Per Round (PPR) over the past six weeks is the third-worst mark among golfers this week.
Paul Casey ($8,000) doesn’t always have great odds of lifting the trophy since he has just two career wins, but he’s still cheap for a guy whose 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score is the sixth-best mark in the field. Overall, he possesses a solid 68.5% LT GIR, 300-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) and 63.3% Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA).
Kyle Stanley ($7,500) may end up being somewhat chalky, but he enters this week with an excellent 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score, hitting 71.2% of GIR and 75.9% of fairways over the past six weeks.
Cameron Smith ($7,800) possesses a high 35% cut rate over the past 75 weeks, but we won’t have to worry about that in a no-cut event. He has back-to-back third-place finishes and boasts a 67.4 Recent Adjusted Round Score. Smith’s one of the better putters in the field, averaging 28.5 PPR over the past 75 weeks and 27.8 PPR in his past four tournaments. His recent success likely has a lot to do with his 70.8% and 73.8% of GIR over his past two tournaments. He could be in trouble if he regresses to his long-term form where he averages just 60.5% of GIR.
The Bump and Run
We’re now at the point where I’ve talked up Tony Finau ($9,500) 100 times this season, but it’s impossible not to. He’s dominated this year, averaging a +12.34 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 74% Consistency Rating. Over his past five tournaments, he has three top-10 finishes while averaging an absurd 18.2 birdies per tournament. He’s presently the second-highest rated golfer in Colin Davey’s model.
Rickie Fowler ($9,000) could be an intriguing tournament play. He may go low owned since he’s coming off an oblique injury and he hasn’t played since August 12th at the PGA Championship. Before the injury, Fowler had recorded seven top-20 finishes over his past eight tournaments.
The $8,500-$9,000 range is stacked with talent. It’s possible Francesco Molinari ($8,800) gets glossed over with the likes of John Rahm ($8,900), Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600), and Patrick Cantlay ($8,500) nearby, making Molinari a potential contrarian play.
Cantlay is in the best recent form (67.4 Recent Adj Rd Score) among those four golfers and averaging a stellar -3.5 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over his past four tournaments. Rahm’s 15.5 birdies per tournament leads this group, which would make me inclined to mix in a fair amount of Rahm into my lineups. His putter over the past six weeks (30.3 PPR) has been the main thing holding him back.
After five-straight top-20 finishes, Jason Day ($9,300) missed the cut last week, which may push his ownership down this week. Day’s 62.8% LT GIR pales in comparison to other golfers in this price range, but his 15.6 birdies per tournament in the same time frame is the fourth-best mark in the field.
Jordan Spieth ($9,400) is below $10,000 for just the third time this year. He’s put together three-straight top-25 finishes and his -2.1 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks is the top mark in the field.
Under $7,000
When you’re on a strict budget…
Austin Cook ($6,700): His 14.5 birdies per tournament and -1.1 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks leads this price range.
Cheng-Tsung Pan ($6,900): He’s the only golfer in this price range who boasts odds over 1%, and he owns an excellent 67.9 Recent Adjusted Round Score.
Abraham Ancer ($6,800): He showed up in a big way last week with a seventh-place finish, and he presently owns the second-best odds (0.8%) in this range.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Justin Thomas
Photo credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports
