With soft conditions and no wind, Saturday was an absolute scoring fest at the Wyndham Championship. We saw a pair of 9-under 61s from Zach Johnson and Jim Herman and a pair of 62s from players at the top of the board including current leader Si Woo Kim and Rob Oppenheim, who is tied for second. Kim has separated himself a bit, with a two-shot lead going into the final round, but with all of the scoring available tomorrow, it will make for an interesting Sunday Showdown slate on DraftKings.
The players went out early today, off of both tees, and in threesomes due to rain and anticipated afternoon storms. That weather will bring even softer conditions for tomorrow’s round. As of this writing, there has been no announcement of any change in the tee times tomorrow. We can expect them to tee off in pairs, on the first hole starting at 7:50AM Eastern with the final group to go off at 2:10PM.
For this week’s Sunday Showdown, the key will be making as many birdies as possible and hopefully stringing them together for a streak. Some weeks, when the scoring is tough, you want to find players within the top 30 that can jump up for placement points with a solid round. Usually in those weeks, you can expect some guys to go backwards a bit too. The scoring at this course is the exact opposite, you can’t expect anyone to go backwards, so you are looking for that really low round. This allows you to open your player pool up a little wider to deeper to find a guy going off early in the day that can go go crazy with birdies on the course.
Zach Johnson was that player today after making the cut on the number, shot a 9-under 61, moving up 55 spots on the leaderboard and finishing with 72.2 DraftKings points. There are no placement points in that score, so it really highlights what is available out there.
You will, of course, still need to find the winner to get that important 13-point bump. As I always do, I’ll take a stand up top. My Sunday fade for tomorrow will be Rob Oppenheim. He is dirt cheap at $6,300, which will allow people to comfortably pair him with Si Woo Kim and Webb Simpson, but ultimately I don’t expect him to stay in the top 5 by the end of the day. He’s playing in the final pairing, seeking his first PGA TOUR win, and coming off his career-low round on Saturday. He simply hasn’t been in this position enough for me to trust him to keep scoring at a level to stay in contention and be a part of a top Showdown lineup on Sunday.
My initial thought is that the most popular Sunday build will be with Webb, Si Woo, and Redman. It’s a build that certainly makes sense and there is enough value down low to make it comfortable. For the record, I like and will play quite a bit of all three, but from an ownership standpoint I expect that specific build to be popular. I expect that structure to lead to the tier between Redman ($8,300) and Kim ($10,000) getting a bit overlooked. This can create great leverage spots in GPPs, where finding the right player in that price range can put you ahead of a significant percentage of the field. I’ll look to identify a couple of those opportunities in my picks below.
Let’s take a look at my top plays.
Si Woo Kim $10,000
Looking back at the stats for Si Woo Kim coming into this event, this performance was a trend of his play. He had gained 5.2, 2, and 4 strokes on approach in each of his last three tournaments. He’s paired that this week with solid play off the tee, to lead the field with 9.73 strokes gained ball striking (SG: Off the Tee + SG: Approach). The hole-in-one from Saturday certainly helps those stats, but it was not a fluke as he then lipped out for another one later in the round. He finished the round on fire with four approaches of less than 10′ over the last four holes, and three birdies.
Kim is a multiple time winner on tour, including at this event in 2016. I don’t expect him to be shaken by the pressure of the final group and when he is hot, as he has been this week, he can close the deal.
Harold Varner III $8,900
After firing an 8-under 62 on Thursday, Varner was the great story to start the week as a hometown guy as first round leader. He shot a bit of a lackluster 69 on Friday, then started slow on Saturday. He had no birdies and one bogey on his opening 9 in Round 3 as he simply couldn’t make any birdie putts. HV3 bounced back with a strong 4-under 31 on the final nine holes, including three birdies in a row on holes 12 through 15.
He’s been playing well, but has fallen short in converting his birdie opportunities since the low round on Thursday. He ranks 5th Tee to Green this week and has kept solid ball striking throughout the week.
Varner comes into the final round in 9th place, six shots off the lead, with an opportunity to climb the board with a solid Sunday. When you look at the scoring on Saturday and his price coming into Showdown on Sunday, I think he could be a bit overlooked. If he can get a few more of his birdie chances to fall, he’ll be a great leverage play for your lineup.
Mark Hubbard $8,600
Hubbard also started the round on Saturday slowly. He didn’t have any birdies in his first 9 holes but came out firing on the inward nine with three straight birdies. He would follow it up with three more for a 29 on the back and a 6-under 64.
He, like Varner, fits in that overlooked price tier at $300 more expensive than Doc Redman. Hubbard is currently in fifth place, four shots off the lead and gets to be in a more comfortable chasing position. I loved the way he turned it around on Saturday, continuing his game of fairways and greens, but finally capitalizing on opportunities down the back stretch. He’s hit 85% of his greens this week, gained 6.53 strokes tee to green while also gaining 3.31 strokes on greens.
I like Hubbard as a solid pivot off Redman, who is within striking distance, to really shake up the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Chris Keane/Getty Images. Pictured: Doc Redman.
Doc Redman $8,300
Doc just simply jumps off the page when you look for plays on this slate. He’s second in the field in ball striking, third off the tee, and 4th on approach. He also had his best putting day on Saturday, leading him to a 7-under 63 and two shots off the lead in second place.
He, like Oppenheim, is seeking his first PGA TOUR victory, but gets the luxury of doing it from the penultimate group. I like that he doesn’t have the pressure of a final pairing and getting too caught up in what Si Woo Kim is doing on every shot. Redman will get the chance to charge out of the gates with his elite ball striking and try to post a score ahead of the final pairing.
He was nearly 25% owned in Showdown in round 3, and was one of the higher scoring players on that slate. He will be even heavier chalk on Sunday, but this is chalk I’ll be willing to eat, and looking to be different with some of my other plays listed here.
Joaquin Niemann $7,900
Niemann is one of the best young ball strikers on tour, when he has his game. This week, he has slowly found that form this week at the Wyndham Championship. After losing 1.28 strokes on approach on Thursday, he’s gained nearly a stroke in each of the past two rounds with his irons. The big difference for him in his 5-under 65 on Saturday was his ability to find fairways. He hit 10 of 14 fairways, which led to 15 of 18 greens and a solid third round.
He comes into the final round in 23rd place, just three shots outside of the top 10. This year, he has the 26th best scoring average on tour in final rounds. I am expecting Niemann to sharpen even further from his Saturday round and have the chance to climb the board with a low round. As one of the top birdie makers in this field, he makes for a great Showdown play on Sunday.
Sam Burns $7,100
Burns was one of my key Showdown plays on Saturday as he started out hot with a 4-under 31 on the front nine. He only capitalized on one more birdie on the back, but did it all bogey free. Today’s round was the first this week where he gained strokes on approach, which is a bit of a shock with him posting three straight in the sixties. The improvement in round three is a trend in the right direction for his ball striking, and it didn’t come at the expense of the strong putting he’s had all week. I’ll stay with him in the final round, banking on continued improvement, and the knowledge that he’s shown a high floor for the price tag.
Like Niemann, Burns is a scorer, and now that he’s climbed his way to 18th place, he also has placement point upside. If he can find the short grass a bit more off the tee on Sunday, he will have the opportunity to improve on today’s 65. He is flatly underpriced for the ceiling he brings to Showdown, as well as the savings he provides in roster construction.
Cameron Davis $6,900
Cameron Davis gained right around half a stroke off the tee and on approach in round one on his way to a lackluster 71, which started with double bogeys on each of his first two holes. He followed that up on Friday, gaining 1.27 strokes off the tee, but losing .79 on approach. He still fired a 65 with six birdies, one eagle and a streak. In round 3, he flipped the script and fired well off the tee, but lost on approach in another 5-under 65 with 7 birdies.
I am looking for him to finally put it all together on Sunday to really go low. He’s not one that’s likely to go bogey free, but as noted in his rounds he will score in bunches. He also got the DraftKings 3 birdies or better in a row streak on both Friday and Saturday.
Davis comes into the final round at 9-under in 23rd place, combining finish position opportunity to his scoring upside. He fits well into the theme of my plays with his incredible ceiling in Showdown.
