The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is one of my favorite tournaments on the tour. It’s a stacked field with 21 golfers who are in the top 30 in the FedExCup standings, including 2018 winner Gary Woodland.
Let’s dive right in!
The Course
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71, 7,261-yard course featuring three reachable par 5s in two depending on how long off the tee you are. There’s also some shorter par 4s as four of them check in at shorter than 435 yards. Scores tend to be low at this tournament with three of the past winners finishing at -14 or better.
Woodland is the defending the champ, who finished at -18 last year.
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Scottsdale. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 50.15 DraftKings points and a +1.16 Plus/Minus with a 50.4% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +5.71
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +4.74
- Recent Driving Distance: +4.04
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +3.99
- Long-Term Eagles: +3.73
- Long-Term Birdies: +3.48
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +3.22
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.15
- Recent Scrambling: +3.08
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.85
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +2.28
- Recent Birdies: +2.09
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.06
- Long-Term Scrambling: +2.05
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.05
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.75
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.49
- Recent Bogeys: +1.21
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +1.15
- Recent Putts Per Round: +0.49
- Recent Missed Cuts: +0.42
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +0.25
Key metrics to focus on: Par-4 and par-5 scoring, birdie or better scoring, driving distance, greens in regulation.
And as usual, I like Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) as a catch-all metric.
Best DFS Plays at 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings pricing)
On the top end, John Rahm ($11,500 DraftKings; $12,500 FanDuel), Justin Thomas ($11,00 DraftKings; $12,100 FanDuel) and Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel) are all intriguing.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama has won this tournament twice and had a solid third-place showing last week at Torrey Pines. However, for just $300 more you’d be able to plug in Thomas, who leads the field in the following key metrics: LT Adj Rd Score, eagles and birdies per tournament and adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s.
Rahm is off to a fantastic start to this PGA season, parlaying three top-eight finishes, and he isn’t far behind Thomas in the key metrics this week, sporting a 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score, 17.1 birdies per tournament, -2.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s, and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s. Overall, Thomas and Rahm are two of six golfers in the field who’ve gained over -2.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks.
This week, Thomas and Rahm are my preferred options in this tier, but overall roster construction has me leaning towards more of a balanced build for cash games.
$9,900-$9,000
Rickie Fowler ($9,400 DraftKings; $11,00 FanDuel) and Tony Finau ($9,500 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) trail only Thomas with their 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score, but they’re priced as the seventh and eighth-most expensive golfers on DraftKings.
Finau has made just one cut here since 2015, but he’s hard not to consider with his 16.4 birdies per tournament and outstanding -5.6 adjusted strokes on par 5s, which are both top-four marks in the field.
Webb Simpson’s ($9,700 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) driving distance isn’t as far as some of the other golfers in this tier, but his 8% missed-cut rate, 0.7 eagles per tournament and -2.1 adjusted strokes on par 4s are among the best marks in the field.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gary Woodland
Rounding out this loaded price range is Gary Woodland ($9,900 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel). Woodland got off to a slow start at Torrey Pines but managed a ninth-place finish following a 66 in the fourth round.
While Woodland ranks in the top eight in the field in driving distance, greens in regulation, eagles per tournament and adjusted strokes on par 5s, a Fowler and Finau build will likely be where I start for cash games given their slight discounts without sacrificing key stats.
$8,900-$8,000
Chez Reavie ($8,700 DraftKings; $10,300 FanDuel) is off to a great start to this PGA season, putting together a third-place finish at the Sony Open, along with finishing in the top 30 at the Desert Classic. He isn’t the longest off the tee, but he’s rarely in trouble, hitting 72.2% of fairways and averaging just 7.8 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Distance would be the main knock on Reavie, which is why his -3.1 adjusted strokes on par 5s pale in comparison to a lot of the field, but he’s a relatively solid otherwise with his bogey avoidance and -1.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Alex Noren ($8,400 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) is coming off a missed cut at Torrey Pines, but that’s not an easy place to start your PGA season when you haven’t played since October. He opened at Torrey with a 76 but bounced back on Day 2 to shoot a 68.
Noren isn’t unfamiliar with this course, finishing 28th last season and as the No. 21 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), he’s someone I’m willing to consider at a relatively cheap price. His 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score is also the best average score in this price range.
Luke List ($8,000 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) is long off the tee (314.4-yard LT DD) and has hit 68.9% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. While his 8.8 bogeys per tournament and 28% missed-cut rate make him volatile, he’s fully capable of taking advantage of the par 5s here with his distance off the tee.
$7,900-$7,000
Tyrell Hatton ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) has an exceptional 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score and is an excellent birdie scorer (15.0 average per tournament) while limiting bogeys to just an average of 7.5 per tournament. Further, Hatton is one of the six golfers in the field to average at least -2.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
I’d expect Emiliano Grillo ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) to be high owned, but deservedly so with his 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score and 15.6 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks. His LT Adj Rd Score and average birdies per tournament are top-six marks in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 30 golfer.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) also fits the mold of being incredibly cheap for his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score. Hatton, Grillo, and Bradley are all priced under $8,000 on DraftKings, yet they own top-10 LT Adj Rd Scores.
Historically, golfers with comparable salaries and LT Adj Rd Scores have averaged 64.77 DraftKings points per tournament with a +6.76 Plus/Minus, per our Trends tool.
Lucas Glover ($7,200 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) has missed just two cuts at this course since 2010. He hasn’t ever finished that strongly in this tournament, but at $7,200 if he makes the cut, we’re in good shape.
He’s solid off the tee with his 300.5-yard LT DD, and he’s hitting 69.8% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. Glover is also one of the best scramblers in the field, avoiding bogey or worse 63% of the time on his approach shots that miss the green and $7,200 isn’t a steep price to pay for someone who ranks in the top 15 in adjusted strokes on par 5s in the field.
Sung-jae Im ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has made all three of his cute to begin the PGA season, along with two top-16 finishes. He’s also one of eight golfers in the field who have gained strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s over the past 75 weeks. In fact, his -5.4 adjusted strokes on par 5s is the seventh-best mark in the field.
$6,900 and Below
Joel Dahmen ($6,800 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has a fairly balanced game, hitting 69% of GIR and 65.7% of fairways over the past 75 weeks. And, his average birdie/bogey (13.5 and 7.9) combination is among the best in this price range.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Emiliano Grillo
Photo credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
