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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Valspar Championship on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 20, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR continues its Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort will host, and measures as a 7,340-yard par 71, while featuring poa over-seeded greens.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Prices will increase the day after the Masters, so take advantage and get grandfathered in at Betsperts’ lowest price now!

Tool Highlights

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DraftKings $10,000+ Range

I’m not breaking any news here, but the three best plays on the slate this week all happen to be the three most expensive.

We can start with Xander Schauffele, who, I have to say, frightens me a tiny bit this week after his huge letdown last week at THE PLAYERS. He led by one stroke heading into Sunday and watched Scottie Scheffler shoot a bogey-free 64 to beat him by one and literally steal the trophy. Xander shot two under in his final round, but overall, it was a massive disappointment. He now has an absolutely ridiculous 13 runner-up finishes in his career, which is almost double the amount of wins he has (7). So, as you can see, if there were ever a let-down spot on the schedule, it would be this week, especially with the Masters in just three weeks.

Having said that, Xander is the best player in this field by a pretty wide margin and ranks No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking, and Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds. He’s actually averaging .8 total strokes more per round than Aaron Rai, who ranks second in that time frame. Just to put that in perspective, that’s the same gap between Rai and Garrick Higgo, who ranks 40th.

Just to cap it, Xander finished T12 at Copperhead in his lone start here back in 2022, and if he brings any semblance of his A-game this week, he will top 10 quite easily.

Next is Sam Burns, who may or may not own a house on the 17th green at Copperhead. Just kidding, of course, but it certainly feels that way with the way Burns owns this place. In five career starts at the Valspar, Burns has two wins, a T30, T12 and T6. He obviously ranks No. 1 in the field in Total Strokes Gained per round at this course, which has come primarily from his elite putting here. Burns is averaging 1.7 strokes per round over his 20 career rounds on these over-seeded poa greens, which also ranks No. 1 in the field. It feels weird playing him for just $300 less than Xander, but he is a true magician here and is on the shortlist to win yet again.

Finally, we have Justin Thomas, who’s been boom or bust so far this year. Over his past four starts, JT has two missed cuts and two T12s. The major theme during his two recent missed cuts has been his putting, where he lost a combined 5.9 strokes on the greens. However, his iron play has remained elite throughout, ranking eighth in the field on approach over his past 12 rounds. Over the course of his career at Copperhead, JT has been only a very small loser on the greens while averaging 1.71 strokes from tee to green per round. That mark ranks him third in this field, behind only Matt Wallace and Xander.

In his six career starts at this event, JT has two T10s, a T3, and two additional top 18s. He should bounce back this week in a big way, and you’re going to want to be on him when he does.

Player Pool: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas

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DraftKings $9,000 Range

Cameron Young is really the only one I like this week in the $9,000 range, as I will be focusing all of my attention on the big three in the $10,000 range. However, Young has an affinity for showing up at tough golf courses, and Copperhead would certainly qualify as such. He’s never played here before and has been on quite the run of late, sitting third in the field in SG: Ball Striking over the past 16 rounds. Young has lost a ridiculous 9.2 strokes putting over the past two weeks, which can really only improve. I think he bounces back in a big way this week and makes sense as your second golfer on rosters.

Player Pool: Cameron Young

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

Christiaan Bezuidenhout feels a bit pricy for his range of outcomes, but this field is nothing to write home about, and Bez has been extremely consistent so far in 2024. He finished T13 last week at THE PLAYERS, where he did what he always does, which is crush both with his irons and putter. The South African gained a whopping seven strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass and has now finished T28 or better in five of his past eight starts. You’re largely paying up for the made-cut equity here, but Bez has flashed a ceiling this year, and there are plenty of worse places to spend your salary this week.

Very much in the Bezuidenhout mold is Aaron Rai, who I know I will regret for writing up. However, after making the cut on the number last week at TPC Sawgrass, Rai had a strong weekend and ended up finishing T35. He did his usual thing, gaining 4.9 strokes ball striking while losing on the greens. It doesn’t really make sense to me when you actually watch the guy play, but Rai ranks No. 2 in this field behind only Xander Schauffele in SG: Ball Striking over the past 48 rounds.

He also ranks No. 1 in the field in driving accuracy in that same time frame. Rai has never played Copperhead before but should be living in the fairway again this week, so as usual, it will come down to his putter. Either way, he’s been pretty solid to start the year and is a really strong play this week.

There’s no more fighting it. Doug Ghim is just a really good golfer now. After it looked like he was gonna implode early in his second round at THE PLAYERS last week, he played great on the back nine and then on the weekend to finish T16. Ghim has now finished T16 or better in five straight starts and ranks second behind only Xander in Total Strokes Gained during this five-tournament stretch. He’s on absolute fire right now, and after finishing T27 at Copperhead last year, it really feels like he’s live to win this week.

Mav McNealy appears to be healthy right now, and his game looks great. He posted a T9 last week at THE PLAYERS, which was his third top-13 and second top-10 across his past four starts. McNealy has always been known for his elite short game, and that has taken centerstage during this run he’s on, as he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Around-the-Green and 17th in putting over his past 16 rounds. Not only that but he’s been crushing it off the tee as well, gaining 1.7 or more strokes in that department in three of his past four starts. He posted a T36 here last year and is a bit underpriced this week when you factor that in with his recent form.

Player Pool: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, Maverick McNealy

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Sepp Straka finally showed some signs of life last week after what’s felt like a six-week malaise. The big Austrian finished T16 at TPC Sawgrass, which would have been much better if not for a cold putter. Straka gained 5.9 strokes ball striking and 2.5 around the green last week, and is simply too cheap for his upside in this spot. In his lone start at Cooperhead back in 2019, Straka finished T45, and he should absolutely build on that this week.

I don’t see a reason not to play Taylor Moore this week. He’s made six of six cuts so far in 2024 and is the defending champion at this event. This $7,800 price tag is borderline disrespectful, and there’s zero reason guys like Patrick Rodgers or Adam Hadwin should be priced above Moore right now. Outside of the Arnold Palmer, Moore has gained 1.91 strokes or more from tee to green in three of his past four starts, including 4.5 at THE PLAYERS last week and 6.7 at the Waste Management. There’s no need to overthink.

Lucas Glover is arguably the best play in the $7,000 range this week, as he’s quietly having another stellar ball-striking season. He sits 17th in that department over the past 24 rounds in this field and an even better 10th from tee to green thanks to his strong around-the-green play this year. The problem for Glover, like it has been for so many years, is his putter. He sits 115th or worse in the field in SG: Putting over any time period beyond 24 rounds. I am willing to overlook that, however, because he’s shown he can play quite well at Copperhead.

Glover has made the cut at this event in seven of his past nine starts while finishing T24 or better in three of those, with an additional T36 last year. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week but gained 1.3 strokes off the tee and 1.9 on approach during his Friday round. He’s ready to go this week, and I love the price here.

Sam Ryder is also in the midst of some good form at the moment after last week’s T16 at THE PLAYERS, which was on the heels of a T21 at the Cognizant. During this stretch, Ryder ranks fourth in the field in Total Strokes Gained, largely due to his putter, where he’s gained a combined 9.3 strokes on the greens. After four consecutive poor showings at Copperhead, Ryder finally broke through last year with a T19 finish, and with the way he seems dialed in right now, we should, at the minimum, expect a made cut out of him this week.

Adam Schenk played really well last week at THE PLAYERS, finishing T19, which marked his third top-25 across his past seven starts. Schenk gained 6.5 strokes from tee to green at Sawgrass and now comes back to a Copperhead course where he finished runner-up last year and T18 back in 2021. He’s gained strokes on average per round with both the putter and from tee to green in his five career starts at the Valspar, and that’s more than good enough for me to want to play him at just $7,100 this week.

Player Pool: Sepp Straka, Taylor Moore, Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, Adam Schenk

DraftKings $6,000 Range

There are only a couple of plays that stand out in this range this week

The first of which is Victor Perez, who coming in with some really good form after finishes of T16 and T3 at the Cognizant and Puerto Rico Open, respectively. The Frenchman ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained over that time frame and gained an impressive 5.7 strokes from tee to green at PGA National, which is another tough Florida track. In his lone start at Copperhead last year, Perez finished T45 and is definitely underpriced this week at just $6,900. Keep in mind, Perez has three career DP World Tour victories to his name and can absolutely play.

Next is Matt NeSmith, who’s been having a miserable season but finally woke up a bit last week at THE PLAYERS. He finished T26 at Sawgrass while gaining 5.2 strokes ball striking. He will likely be a bit chalky this week– especially in higher stakes — due to his course history at Copperhead, which reads T21, T3 in two career starts. On a week where you’d really like to jam in two of the big three at the top, finding gems in this range will be key, and NeSmith might unlock that for you.

Player Pool: Victor Perez, Matt NeSmith, Matt Wallace,