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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Valero Texas Open on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Apr 3, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR stays in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio will host. This course measure as a 7,438-yard par 72 while featuring poa over-seeded greens.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Prices will increase the day after the Masters, so take advantage and get grandfathered in at Betsperts’ lowest price now!

Tool Highlights

- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
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- See expert models each week.

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Hideki Matsuyama really looks sharp to begin 2024 after winning the Genesis and then following that up with a T12 at API and a T6 at THE PLAYERS. He gained a ridiculous 14.2 strokes from tee to green at TPC Sawgrass, including 10.1 ball striking. He’ll be teeing it up in San Antonio for the fourth time, with his first three starts resulting in T30, WD, and T15. I really think it’s too scary to pay $12,300 for Rory this week with the way he’s been playing, so dropping to Hideki to start lineups makes a lot of sense.

Ludvig Aberg seems like the easiest click of all the $10,000+ players this week, as he’s posted three top-nine finishes over his past five starts and ranks second to only Rory McIlroy in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds. Every time Aberg plays a new course, he seems to dominate it, and TPC San Antonio should fit his eye quite nicely. A scary thing for the rest of the field: Aberg gained 5.9 strokes on approach in his last start at THE PLAYERS. If that trend continues we could be looking at the next Scottie Scheffler here. Fade at your own risk.

Player Pool: Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg

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DraftKings $9,000 Range

Jordan Spieth has not been playing well since he got disqualified from the Genesis back in February. However, there are some courses that he just knows how to get around, and TPC San Antonio is one of those. Spieth won here back in 2021 and had major success here in the early stages of his career, posting a 10th and runner-up in 2014 and 2015. Had Spieth shown any modicum of form these past few weeks he would easily be $1,000 more expensive this week. With Augusta on the horizon next week, you know Spieth will want to tune up his game, and that begins this week.

I was expecting Corey Conners to be over $10,000 this week, so when I almost did a double-take when I saw he was just $9,400. Even with some higher, top-end talent in the field this week, Conners is still way too cheap. The Canadian has both of his PGA TOUR victories at the Valero, with one coming last year and the first back in 2019. He’s not done a whole lot this season to write home about, but he is coming off back-to-back top-18 finishes at the API and PLAYERS. We know the drill on Conners by now. He’s an elite ball striker (second in the field over the past 24 rounds) who historically putts well at TPC San Antonio. Lock him in at this price, and don’t overthink it.

Benny An is coming off his first poor performance of the season at THE PLAYERS, where he missed the cut in ugly fashion. However, he’s since had two weeks of rest and should be ready to go at a course he’s historically done quite well at. An has two top-seven finishes in four starts at TPC San Antonio, and prior to his mishap at THE PLAYERS, had made the cut in every 2024 start. He is pretty reasonably priced this week at just $9,000.

Player Pool: Jordan Spieth, Corey Conners, Benny An

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

Billy Horschel is having a renaissance season to begin 2024. He’s now finished T12 or better in three of his past four starts, including a T7 last week at the Houston Open. Only Hideki Matsuyama has gained more total strokes over the past 24 rounds than Horschel, as he’s really in command of all his clubs right now. Horschel has also played well at this event in the past, posting top-four finishes in 2013, 2015 and 2016. With the way he’s playing right now and his course history, he’s a very strong option at just $8,900.

Alex Noren continues to roll in his age-42 season, as he posted a T11 finish at the Houston Open last week, which was his second top-11 over his past three starts. We know about Noren’s elite putting, but it’s been his ball striking that’s been working, as he gained 3.2 strokes at Memorial Park, which was after gaining 5.8 at the Valspar three weeks back. In his lone start at Valero last season, Noren finished T15, and I expect a very similar result this week with the way he’s been playing.

Russell Henley is simply too cheap for his talent level. There’s not much more that needs to be said. He’s played this event twice over the past 10 years and has nothing to write home about regarding course history, but for him to be teeing it up here one week before the Masters is quite telling to me. Henley has not been at his best at times this season, but he also has a pair of top-four finishes at the API and Sony, so the ceiling remains firmly intact. At $8,300 this is one of the bigger joke prices we have this week.

Player Pool: Billy Horschel, Alex Noren, Russell Henley

DraftKings $7,000 Range

I do not understand why Christiaan Bezuidenhout is only $7,900 this week. It’s a pretty egregious misprice for someone who ranks sixth in this field on approach and 11th in Total Strokes Gained over the past 24 rounds. Bez has made seven of nine cuts to begin the year and is coming off finishes of T13 and T9 over his past two starts at THE PLAYERS and Valspar. After a T28 finish in his lone start at this event last year, I’d be quite surprised if Bez did not make the cut in this spot and post a similar result. He’s my favorite play in the range by far.

I liked Aaron Rai last week, and he did not disappoint, posting a T7 at Memorial Park. I see no reason not to go right back to him in this spot, especially after a $800 price reduction. Rai had it all working last week, gaining 5.4 strokes ball striking and 3.7 more on the greens. He’ll look to keep it rolling at a course in TPC San Antonio, where he’s finished T29 and T28 each of the past few years. You can easily make a case that Rai is also way too cheap for his talent this week, which seems to be the theme of this slate.

Speaking of too cheap, what is this Keith Mitchell price? He was $9,000 just a couple of weeks ago, and after one missed cut he drops all the way to $7,600? I truly do not understand this at all. Mitchell was not even that bad last week in Houston, as he gained strokes both off the tee and on approach; he simply could not make a putt. I am not concerned with one poor putting performance, as Mitchell had been rolling prior to last week, posting four top-20 finishes across his past six starts, including a T9 at the Cognizant.

Maverick McNealy looks to be fully healthy right now after a shoulder injury derailed his entire 2023 season. He’s made eight of nine cuts to start the year while already flashing a high ceiling with top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS and Waste Management. McNealy’s approach game has not been at its best, but everything else has been absolutely elite, and he actually ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained behind Hideki Matsuyama and Billy Horschel over the past 24 rounds. In McNealy’s lone start here back in 2022, he finished T35 and lit it up from tee to green. With him back healthy and playing well, his $7,400 price tag stands out this week.

Lucas Glover has also been pretty consistent in 2024 after closing 2023 with a pair of wins down the stretch. The putting we saw from him last summer has sadly faded, but his tee-to-green game has remained elite. Glover ranks in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past 24 rounds and has made six of eight cuts to begin the year. He’s also coming off his best finish of the season last week in Houston, where he posted a solo 11th. In terms of course history, Glover checks that box as well, as he’s made each of his past four cuts at TPC San Antonio with a T4 and two additional top-18s. He’s as sure a bet as any to find the weekend this week, which should be more than enough to roster him at $7,300.

Player Pool: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai, Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy, Lucas Glover

DraftKings $6,000 Range

KH Lee has been playing pretty well of late and has routinely played well at TPC Courses in his career. In three starts at this course, he’s gone T14, T23, MC. Overall, Lee has posted two top-nine finishes over his past four starts and ranks 22nd in the field in Total Strokes Gained in that time frame. You can’t ask for much more at $6,800.

Andrew Novak is having a really strong season thus far, and while he faded over the weekend last week in Houston, it was still his fifth made cut over his past six starts. He just came out of a stretch that saw him post three consecutive top-10s at the Waste Management, Mexico Open, and Cognizant. He posted a T9 here last year and is an elite value play at just $6,500 this week.

Player Pool: KH Lee, Andrew Novak