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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Texas Children’s Houston Open on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 25, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR heads to Texas this week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open Valspar Championship. Memorial Park Golf Course course will host. This course measures as a 7,412-yard par 70 while featuring poa over-seeded greens.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Prices will increase the day after the Masters, so take advantage and get grandfathered in at Betsperts’ lowest price now!

Tool Highlights

- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you want right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

I’m not going to spend much time on this one. Scottie Scheffler is $13,000 this week on DraftKings, but that’s arguably still not high enough, with the pricing floor reduced to $5,000. There are plenty of ways to fit the best player on the planet, and you would be foolhardy to fade for any reason outside of game theory. Scheffler has now won two straight events and has an immaculate history at Memorial Park, with two top 10s.

I am not enamored with anyone else above $10,000 this week, but Wyndham Clark would be the next guy on my list. However, if you’re going to pay $10,900 for him, just find the $2,100 for Scottie.

Player Pool: Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark

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DraftKings $9,000 Range

If you do end up fading Scottie, I like going back to Tony Finau this week at $9,900. Finau was brutal last week at the Valspar but now comes back to Memorial Park, where he’s the defending champion. Anytime Finau has won at a course, we must take notice, as he seems to always play well there. Even including last week’s missed cut, Finau has been on a really nice run ball-striking, ranking ninth in the field over his past 24 rounds while sitting eighth from tee to green in the same time frame. He likely won’t be too highly owned, either.

Jason Day has not been hitting the ball great, but he’s been vintage with his short game all season, ranking eighth in SG: Short Game (Putting + Around the Green) over his past 24 rounds. Overall, he sits 12th in Total Strokes gained over that stretch and is now returning to a course where he’s made three of three cuts. Day has a T16 and T5 amidst those three starts and has now already piled up three top-10s this season.

To round out the $9,000 range, I like Keith Mitchell, who’s coming off a Sunday implosion at the Valspar. I will try and look at the positives for him from last week, as he gained 9.3 strokes on approach. Mitchell now ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Ball Striking behind only Scottie Scheffler over his past 24 rounds, and is coming off a T9 at this event the last time it was held.

Player Pool: Tony Finau, Jason Day, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

Stephan Jaeger has traded in some of his elite consistency for a higher ceiling so far in 2024. He’s already posted two top 10s this year but has missed two cuts and finished T71 in three of eight starts. Nothing, in particular, stands out in terms of what Jaeger is doing wrong, as he still sits 14th in the field in Total Strokes Gained and 20th in SG: Ball Striking over his past 24. He’s also finished T35 and T9 in two career starts at Memorial Park. He feels like a stone lock to make the weekend and give us another top-30 in this spot.

Begrudgingly, I am going to go back to Aaron Rai. He let everyone down last week in typical Aaron Rai fashion and will likely catch less ownership this week because of it. However, when you look deep into the numbers, it was really only Rai’s putting that was particularly bad because he actually was a positive from tee to green for the week. In two starts at Memorial Park, Rai has finishes of T19 and T7, and the latter came in his last start here back in 2022, which ironically happened the week after a missed cut. I think he will bounce back this week.

I am not sure how many people are going back to Doug Ghim this week after his underwhelming T67 finish at Valspar, but DraftKings reduced his price by $200 despite the field being arguably worse than last week. Ghim still gained strokes ball-striking but just didn’t have the short game working. He’s been too good for the past six weeks to jump off the train after one subpar performance.

Player Pool: Stephan Jaeger, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Mackenzie Hughes has quietly been playing good golf of late, finishing T31 or better in four of his past five starts, including a T3 last week at Valspar. His short game has remained elite, but he’s really been hitting the ball better, especially over his past three events. We also love to see that Hughes has made all three cuts at Memorial Park with finishes of T7, T29, and T16 in those three starts. He’s always slightly risky, but the recent form and course history match really well for just $7,800.

Luke List has been a bit off of late, and I am worried he’s reverting back to his former self. However, his putter has been much better over the past six months or so, and we know he can strike the ball with the game’s elite. He’s made each of his past two cuts at Memorial Park, including a T11 in 2021. At just $7,500 I don’t mind taking a slight risk here.

Davis Thompson continued to stripe the ball last week at Valspar but turned in one of the most brutal putting performances you’ll see, losing 5.18 strokes on the greens in just two rounds. If we take a long-term view of Thompson, we’ll find that he’s actually not a bad putter but is just going through some type of slump right now. Overall, he ranks 13th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds and has a T43 in his lone start at Memorial Park back in 2022. The price is quite nice here at just $7,300, especially when trying to fit Scottie.

The mega chalk of the week is likely to be Joel Dahmen, who has been killing it with his irons of late, while boasting some of the best course history in the field. In two career starts at this event, Dahmen has finished T5 and T9 while averaging the most SG: Tee-to-Green per round among anyone in the field, even Scottie Scheffler. He’s also coming into play on the heels of three straight made cuts, which includes a T11 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago. Dahmen has now gained a combined 13.4 strokes on approach over his past two starts and is quite simply too cheap this week.

Player Pool: Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Griffin, Luke List, Akshay Bhatia, Davis Thompson, Taylor Montgomery, Joel Dahmen

DraftKings $6,000 Range

Andrew Novak has been playing way too well to be only $6,900 in this field. He’s coming off a T17 last week at the Valspar, which was on the heels of three top 10s across his past four starts. As a matter of fact, over the past 20 rounds, Novak ranks fifth in Total Strokes Gained in the field behind only Scheffler, Clark, Theegala and Ghim. Novak has gained over five strokes on approach in three of his past five starts, which will suit him quite nicely at a tough Memorial Park layout.

Joseph Bramlett is also in play after another strong finish last week in Palm Harbor. Joey Brams posted a T17 at Valspar, which marked his third made cut in four starts and second top-25 over his past five. Bramlett isn’t going to blow you away in a particular area, but he ranks a respectable 41st in Total Strokes Gained over the past 24 rounds, which is more than enough to roster him this week at just $6,600, especially since he finished T9 at this event last year.

Greyson Sigg is usually a pretty reliable cut maker, and is always in play when he’s priced in this range. He’s coming off a T45 last week at Valspar and actually rates out as one of the best iron players in the field long-term. No one down in this range is going to feel great, but you’re going to need to find someone who unlocks Scottie Scheffler, and I feel good about Sigg being that guy.

Player Pool: Andrew Novak, Joseph Bramlett, Greyson Sigg, Dylan Wu, Harry Hall