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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 13, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR continues its Florida swing this week with THE PLAYERS Championship. TPC Sawgrass will host, and measures as a 7,275-yard par 72, while featuring poa over-seeded greens. We have likely the best non-major field we will see all season this week, as 46 of the world’s top 50 will be in attendance.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Prices will increase the day after the Masters, so take advantage and get grandfathered in at Betsperts’ lowest price now!

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DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Scottie Scheffler is priced up to $12,800 this week, which seems like a lot at first glance, but keep in mind we have the pricing floor again down at $5,000. Regardless, he is expensive, and you have to be comfortable with a real punt play in your lineup in order to jam him.

It’s easily doable, and Scheffler is so likely to top-five in this spot again that it’s almost worth the risk. Just be mindful that if you play him, your entire roster construction will change. Having said that, he’s the defending champion and is coming off a dominant victory last week at the API. The man is simply a machine, and there’s not much more to say about him. Any 2v2 will look better without him, but if he’s holding the trophy Sunday evening, you’ll be kicking yourself.

Justin Thomas is the only other golfer I like above $10,000 this week, as outside of a hiccup at Genesis, he’s been outstanding this year. JT is coming off a T12 last week at Bay Hill, where he gained 2.6 more strokes on approach and 3.9 from tee to green.

Thomas also has elite course history at TPC Sawgrass, having won this event in 2021 while adding a T3 and two additional top-24s. He’s also technically never missed a cut, as his only blemish was an MDF (made cut, did not finish) way back in 2017.

Player Pool: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay

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DraftKings $9,000 Range

There has never been anyone more back than Will Zalatoris. This man picked up exactly where he left off before hurting his back, and it’s actually amazing to see because he really is an elite talent. Will Z is coming off a T4 last week at the API, which was on the heels of a T2 at Genesis. Over these past two starts, Zalatoris has gained 8.8 strokes on approach and 5.0 off the tee. He’ll now return to TPC Sawgrass, where he’s yet to miss a cut in three trips while posting a pair of top-26 finishes. Zalatoris is simply dialed in right now and is arguably the best non-Scottie Scheffler play of the week in this price range.

I was quite surprised to see Hideki Matsuyama priced at $9,800, but he’s playing too well right now to ignore. Hideki Bot played really well at Bay Hill last week after his win at the Genesis, finishing T12 and gaining 4.3 strokes ball striking. His history at Sawgrass is also as good as it gets, with three top-eights and three additional top-22 finishes over his past eight starts.

Max Homa is not hitting the ball particularly well right now, but he is putting the lights out, and we know how well he handles tough courses. THE PLAYERS is no different, as Homa has a T13 and T6 to his name already at TPC Sawgrass. Homa is a serial winner on the PGA TOUR and rounding into form at the perfect time after his T8 at Bay Hill.

Collin Morikawa is always in play off of a missed cut. This has been a theme for him throughout his career, but he’s one-for-one already this year after finishing T14 at Pebble Beach, just one week after missing the weekend at Riviera. I know that’s not exactly an actionable data point, but sometimes golf is an art and not a science. Morikawa is also coming off the best PLAYERS finish of his career last year with a T13. I think he’s quite a strong play this week.

It’s hard to ignore the run Shane Lowry has been on since we started the Florida Swing. The big fella finished T4 at the Cognizant and then went toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler last week at Bay Hill, where he ultimately had to settle for a solo third. Lowry has gained 7.2 and 6.2 strokes ball striking, respectively, over these past two starts and is now returning to Sawgrass, where he’s finished T8, T13, and T35 over the past three years. He’s not as cheap as I’d like, but there’s zero reason not to back him this week.

Player Pool: Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

The $8,000 range is not my favorite this week, but a few guys stand out to me at the bottom. The first of which is Corey Conners at $8,300. I think you know the drill with Conners by now — elite ball striker, horrible putter. He’s not been at his best this season, having posted zero top 10s in seven starts, but he is coming off a T18 last week at the API, where he gained 6.04 strokes on approach. That marked the third consecutive week he’s gained 3.5 or more with his irons if you’re into that sorta thing. Conners has made three of his four cuts at TPC Sawgrass in his career, with his best finish being a T7 back in 2021. I like the way he’s playing right now and think $8,300 is a good buy.

Si Wooooooooo Kim is next. The Pete Dye specialist himself. Technically, SWK has never missed a cut at this event either, as the only time he failed to play the weekend in his seven career starts at Sawgrass was when he withdrew early in 2022. Outside of that, Kim has a win, a T9, and two other top-27 finishes. He’s also quietly having a really strong season thus far, making the cut in all six of his starts and posting four top-25s already. Over the past 24 rounds in this field, Kim sits seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking. He’s extremely enticing at just $8,000.

The next guy I liked, was last week’s darling, Min Woo Lee. He got a $1,400 price bump from Bay Hill, and dare I say he’s a better play this week? Lee is coming off a T6 finish at this event last year, which could have been even better if not for a final-round 76. Lee gained 2.7 strokes on approach last week and lost 3.6 on the greens, which is usually an inverse of what he normally does. If that iron play carries over to this week, I guarantee you will top 20 this week. Sign me up at just $8,000.

Player Pool: Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im

DraftKings $7,000 Range

The $7,000 range is littered with strong options this week, so I will try and make this as succinct as possible.

Brian Harman has an elite course history here, with two T8s and a T3 over his past 10 starts. He is also coming off a T12 at API, where he gained 5.6 on approach. I think Harman is live to win this week, just like he won the Open Championship this past July. He’s sneaky elite when he’s on his game.

You could make the argument that Tom Hoge is the best iron player in the world right now. He’s, of course not, it’s Scottie Scheffler, but Hoge is certainly in the conversation. Guess what? The numbers bear that out as well, as Hoge sits second in this field behind only Scheffler in SG: Approach over the past 48 rounds. Hoge is also on fire right now, having posted his third top-12 finish over his past four starts this past week at Bay Hill. He also set the TPC Sawgrass single-round scoring record last year when he shot 62 in Round 3. I see zero reason not to go right back to him at $7,800.

Eric Cole continues to quietly take care of business. The 35-year-old just posted his fourth top-21 finish over his past seven starts last week at the API, where he did what he always does — gain strokes on approach and with the putter and lose off the tee. In his lone start at this event last year, Cole finished T27, and expecting him to do that again this year is quite reasonable.

There is apparently some time of correlation between playing well at the Sentry and winning THE PLAYERS, as each of the past four champions here (Scottie, Cam Smith, Rory, JT) all crushed at Kapalua the year of their win. Shoutout to Vincerix’s Adam Kirk for pointing that one out on Twitter (X). Besides that little trend, Chris Kirk has been incredibly solid this year, even if you take out his win, as he’s finished T18, T26, and T28 in three of his past six starts. He’s not been great at Sawgrass since this event moved from May to March in 2019, but he did post three top-13 finishes in the six years prior.

Keith Mitchell is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, with two top-20s and two top-nines over his past six starts. During that stretch, he ranks sixth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, including third OTT. Mitchell has also made three of his past four cuts at TPC Sawgrass, with a career-best T13 finish coming in 2022.

Erik Van Rooyen has been cooking as well. He also gained a gazillion strokes ball striking in his lone PLAYERS start back in 2022, where he finished T13. Overall, the South African has five top-25s over his past six starts, including a T8 and T2 mixed in there. He’s on fire right now and is very reasonably priced at just $7,300.

Cam Davis will round us out this week, as the Aussie is coming off a T18 last week at Bay Hill and a T6 at this event last year. Davis gained 4.3 strokes on approach at Arnie’s place.

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Player Pool: Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, Erik Van Rooyen, Alex Noren, Cam Davis

DraftKings $6,000 Range

Two plays stand out in the $6,000 range for me this week, and both of them make me cringe.

Let’s start with Doug Ghim, who’s playing the best golf of his career right now. The Ghim Reaper has finished T16 or better in each of his past four starts while ranking seventh in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in SG: Ball Striking during that stretch. In three career PLAYERS starts, Ghim has a T29, T6, and MC, so it’s clear he feels relatively comfortable around the Stadium Course. I am well aware the wheels can come off for Ghim at any point whatsoever with zero notice, but i am going to trust both his recent form and course history here for just $6,800. Playing him WITH the guy I am about to mention below makes it quite easy to jam in Scottie Scheffler.

My nemesis, Aaron Rai, is that other guy, and I literally never know what to do with him. His rolling numbers always look elite, but then he’ll come out so extremely flat for zero reason and miss the cut in egregious fashion. However, he somehow ranks fifth in this entire field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past 48 rounds, trailing only Scottie, Rory, Xander, and Lucas Glover. I have absolutely no clue how that’s possible, but the numbers don’t lie. Rai is only $6,400 and finished T19 in his lone PLAYERS start last year, which could have been much better if not for a triple bogey on the 17th hole during his final round. I am trusting you this week, Aaron. Don’t let me down!

Player Pool: Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, Brendon Todd, Taylor Pendrith